SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/7

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SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/7

Post by Shrykespeare »

Dum da DAAAAA! Summer is here! It’s HERE! The time when forget our ages, lose our inhibitions and just go hog damn wild over the conveyor belt of films that feature the biggest budgets, the loudest bangs, and the coolest ways to blow s—t up. The time when opening weekends habitually top $50 million, $75 million, even $100 million. The time when… ah, let’s just get on with it already!

But first, a brief history of the opening weekend of May for the last few years:

2009 – X-Men Origins: Wolverine - $85.0 million (4,099 theaters)
2008 – Iron Man - $98.6 million (4,105 theaters)
2007 – Spider-Man 3 - $151.1 million (4,252 theaters)

All Marvel titles, all over 4,000 theaters. And Summer 2010’s leadoff hitter is definitely no exception. Hoping to top the output of the original Iron Man ($318.4 million) and get the summer season off to a whiz-bang start is Iron Man 2, which is not only the first Marvel film since the ill-fated Wolverine, but purportedly will advance the mysterious “Avengers” plotline that began in the first Iron Man and continued at the end of 2008’s The Incredible Hulk.

In the meantime, however, almost all the components from the first film are back: Robert Downey Jr., the actor whose career resurgence parallels only that of Lazarus (and I’m not talking Kirk), returns as billionaire Tony Stark; Gwyneth Paltrow steps back in as Pepper Potts, Stark’s personal assistant, confidante and potential-but-not-quite love interest; Don Cheadle takes over for Terence Howard (who was summarily s—t-canned after the first film) as Lt. Col. James “Rhodey” Rodes; and Samuel L. Jackson returns as Nick Fury, the eyepatched leader of S.H.I.E.L.D., who is the crux of the aforementioned “Avengers” storyline I mentioned earlier.

(Since I know next to nothing about this storyline beyond the three minutes of film devoted to the subject, along with future projects Thor, Captain America and finally the Avengers movie itself, I’ll leave all speculation to my peers and leave it out of this column until a [much] later date.)

A brief (and hopefully, spoiler-free) plot summary: six months after the end of the first chapter, Tony Stark has used his Iron Man persona as a means of maintaining world peace by effectively deterring the use of nuclear weapons. However, by refusing to hand over his technology to the U.S. government for military application, Stark runs afoul of both a powerful senator (Garry Shandling) and his rival Justin Hammer (Sam Rockwell).

And as if that wasn’t enough, he discovers that the fuel cell that keeps his manufactured “heart” beating is slowly killing him. Thinking the end is near, he appoints Pepper CEO of Stark Industries, hires a beautiful new assistant named Natalie Rushman (Scarlett Johansson), and vows to live it up until the end. But when confronted by a super-baddie calling himself Whiplash (Mickey Rourke), who has been nursing a grudge against Stark’s family for decades… well, let’s just say the excrement really hits the fan.

I’ve read some of the early reviews over at RT (currently 75% fresh on 36/48 reviews), and most critics seem to agree that the film effectively continues the Iron Man legacy, but doesn’t really improve upon it. Or, to boil it down, it’s a sequel, and it never lets you forget that. Naturally, that’s not a deal-breaker for me, nor I expect it to be for… well, anyone, really.

Looking over the last few years, there are two things that you need to think about when considering a summer opener for your slate. For obvious reasons, said opener tends to be the most expensive property on the menu, and Iron Man 2 is no exception. It will run you $36 in the May Ultimate leagues and $38 in the May Box Office leagues, which is several dollars more than you would spend for films like Shrek Forever After, Toy Story 3 and The Twilight Saga: Eclipse (which are the next three most expensive films). Obviously, if you’re prepared to shell out the maximum for anything, you want to be sure that it will perform better than all the others.

The first thing that you need to consider before purchasing Iron Man 2 is very simple: marketability. Obviously, this is not a problem. I mean, I have seen cross-promotional tie-ins with Burger King, Dr. Pepper, Hershey’s, Audi and a few others. Needless to say, there are very few people in this country who don’t know about this film, which I guess is the point, so no worries there.

The second thing is even more vital: competition. This being the summer, you already know that a new film (or two) will be coming along each and every week trying to steal the spotlight from whatever happened to come before it. Iron Man had only Speed Racer to contend with in its second week in 2007 (and even that horrendous flop got beaten by What Happened in Vegas), and Spider-Man 3 had nothing at all (well, a Lindsay Lohan film, like that COUNTS). Wolverine had all the makings of a $300 million earner, but something weird happened after its first three days: people had the gall to not like it. Bad word of mouth made it plummet a whopping 69% in its second weekend – well, that and the opening of a film called Star Trek, which was better-reviewed, better-received, better-acted, better-directed, and just better-everythinged – and as a result, the $85 million Wolverine made in its first three days ended up being just barely under HALF of its total intake. Which is just staggering, when you think about it.

So let’s look at Iron Man 2's competition – next week, you have Robin Hood, directed by Ridley Scott and starring Russell Crowe. It’s a very familiar character, and it too is an action movie of sorts, but the demographic for it skews to a slightly older audience, and I don’t see it putting that big a dent in IM2’s second weekend. After that, you have Shrek Forever After, which is not only the last film in THAT franchise, but is also in 3-D. That, on the other hand, will be aimed at a similar age group as IM2, and will probably kill in its first three days. Really, there won’t be anything to rival IM2 in its genre until its fourth weekend, when Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time opens.

But don’t let even that scare you away: after all, in 2007, the third chapters in not only Spider-Man and Shrek but Pirates of the Caribbean all bowed in the same month. And despite the fact that each of those three movies were different degrees of terrible, they all managed to pass $300 million in domestic earnings. No accounting for taste, I guess.

Bottom line: Iron Man 2 is worth its price tag. I expect no less than sixteen Top 5 points, eight PTA, and $280 million in total earnings. I predict $120 million on its opening weekend, but I expect the subsequent drops in successive weekends will be slightly higher than the original (which didn’t suffer a drop higher than 50% until its 12th week). I can’t in good conscience call this a surefire $300 million earner… the first Iron Man only cleared $300 million by $18 million, and its was a franchise-starter, fresh, new and still under factory warranty. And it’s rare that a superhero-franchise sequel actually surpasses its predecessor. Of course, you should also know that there are already 7,000 votes in the can for this film at IMDb, and its current User Rating is 7.9, so it probably won’t be dropping that much.

I’ve spent a lot of time on this film (as it should be), but believe it or not, there are a few others to talk about. And you may want to pay attention, if only because it may impact your May slates. Remember, in the May-July season, only May-July movies are counted as far as PTA is concerned, which means that each of the five movies scheduled to open on May 7th will earn at least one point. Iron Man 2 is virtually certain to earn five points in that #1 spot, but how about the others?

The biggest of the four “smaller” movies opening on May 7th is Babies, a documentary that, in a way, parallels the plot structure of last year’s DisneyNature documentary Earth. In that film, we were treated to “a year in the life” of a variety of animal species. In Babies, we are treated to a year in the life of four infants from a variety of cultures and geographic locations: San Francisco, Tokyo, Opuwo (Namibia) and Bayanchandmani (Mongolia). Obviously, this is meant to show how sharply contrasted just how child-rearing is done between urban technological locations such as the U.S. and Japan and harsher climates such as the Mongolian desert and the African plains.

An equally sharp contrast seems to exist between this film’s current RT score (100%, albeit on only two reviews thus far) and its IMDb score (5.9, albeit on only 86 votes). What can one say? I’m sure everyone who sees this movie – especially parents – once they get past the “awwww” stage, will find something very likeable… especially given that this weekend also happens to be Mother’s Day weekend.

But this column isn’t about whether Babies is necessary “likeable”, it’s about whether it will make a good pick for your slates… and sadly, it isn’t. Not only is its current User Rating – which could very well rise, you never know – not very promising, but its release platform throws up an even bigger red flag. It’s scheduled to bow in 510 theaters, which makes a high PTA score very unlikely. Of the five, I suspect it will have no better than the second-lowest PTA. For $5 (in Ultimate), you’re better off picking something with better prospects all the way around. And for $3 in Box Office… ditto.

Mother and Child ($5 Ult) – If there is any film with a chance (however minute) of topping IM2 in the PTA category, it’s probably this one, an entrant at the Sundance, Toronto and San Sebastian Film Festivals, which will be opening in New York and Los Angeles only. The cast is quite impressive: Naomi Watts, Annette Bening, and Kerry Washington are the three main characters, and they are supported by the likes of Jimmy Smits, Samuel L. Jackson and seasoned Law & Order vet S. Epatha Merkerson.

Written and directed by Rodrigo Garcia, Mother and Child looks at adoption from three different angles: an older woman (Bening) searching for the daughter she gave up when she was 15; said daughter (Watts), an ambitious loner who tries to control her personal life without any overt emotions; and a sterile African-American woman (Washington), who is beginning the long, tenuous road of adopting a child of her own.

It’s comforting to know that this film will end up with SOME PTA points. It think it will get no less than four on the basis of its cast, its pedigree and its release platform. Your $5 would be well-spent… at least it comes with fewer question marks than limited-release films put out later in the month.

Casino Jack and the United States of Money ($3 Ult) – Not to be confused with Casino Jack, a dramatic adaptation of this same story expected later this year or next year (starring Kevin Spacey), this one is actually a documentary. It too appeared at Sundance, and its subject matter is a pretty juicy one: Jack Abramoff, a once-powerful Republican politico whole stole a ton of money from a lot of people before being imprisoned for various illegal activitites.

Director Alex Gibney (who won critical acclaim – and an Academy Award - for Taxi to the Dark Side) digs up a great deal of dirt on Abramoff, who had a remarkable talent in hooking up special interest groups with the politicians they could help the most, and thereby (in a quote from Cinematical’s Scott Weinberg’s review): “(A) Wiping out Native American casinos, (B) directly supporting slave labor, and (C) pissing all over the U.S. Constitution.” That review went on to say that Gibney successfully kept what could have been another Michael Moor-ish rant from being dry and uninteresting.

That being said, it wasn’t long ago that I made the mistake of recommending The Most Dangerous Man in America, another political documentary-slash-expose, a film which managed a decent User Rating but not much else. The current User Rating for Casino Jack is poor by comparison (5.3 with only 60 votes), but I’ll peg it for three PTA points simply because the prospects of two films this week look much better and the other two look much worse. $3 for three PTA points is a good tradeoff, if you can live with the paltry Rating, so if you’re conservative, take it. Otherwise, you might throw in with a film later on in the month for the same price, which could very well hit on the PTA roulette wheel.

Badmaash Company ($2 Ult) – All I know about this film is what I saw in the trailer… and really, that’s all you should need to know too. This Hindi film, partly done in English, follows four young people, who decide to fulfill their hedonistic dreams by forming their own company. Of course, when said company does its business by engineering under-the-table deals, adopting a variety of disguises, and just generally whoring it up… sorry, I was staring at the hot chick in group, I forgot what my point was.

Oh yeah. If this film was about four American youths, so good-looking it’s disgusting, shallow as a puddle and ruthless as the day is long, would YOU really want to see it? Hasn’t stuff like that been done a thousand different ways? This looks like #1001, with darker complexions and foreign accents.

I can find no reviews on this film, and there is not yet a User Rating to attach to Badmaash Company either, but I suspect it won’t be big. It’s only $2, which means selecting it won’t cripple you if it only gleans one PTA point, but you only have eight slots on your slate, and this seems like a waste of one.

My predictions for the weekend of May 7-9, 2010:

1. Iron Man 2 - $120 million
2. A Nightmare on Elm Street - $15 million
3. How to Train Your Dragon - $7 million
4. Date Night - $5 million
5. who knows (or cares)?

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, six films roll into theaters, including: Robin Hood, the umpteenth adaptation of the story of the “prince of thieves”, this one starring Russell Crowe; Letters to Juliet, a tear-jerking romantic drama starring Amanda Seyfried; Just Wright, a rom-com starring Queen Latifah and Common; and limited-release films Looking For Eric, Go Get Some Rosemary and Princess Kaiulani.

Later!






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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/7

Post by W »

Babies could have been a good one. If it were me, I'd put it in 1000-1500 theaters (there's only one new wide release) plaster Lifetime, WE, Desperate Housewives, etc with the trailer, and see what happens. As it is, I don't see how it can break out and its not a film where you can start it off small either.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/7

Post by J.I. »

Oh Shryke. Please. Out of all the box office predictors on the internet, YOU'RE the one predicting Iron Man 2 to disappoint.

Iron Man 2 has about a 50/50 chance of breaking the opening weekend record. I'll go with $155 million just so I won't be disappointed, but the tracking numbers are suggesting a $165 million opening.

And $280 million? Don't insult your intelligence. The movie is about as sure-fire of a $400 million grosser as it gets.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/7

Post by numbersix »

I have to echo JI to a certain extent. IM2 will clear $120 MIL with relative ease. I can see it doing $150 with ease and since things seem to be pointing to Robin Hood underwhelming, $350 mil total is well within possibility, if not more (not sure if it can reach $400mil).

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/7

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Yeah, I gotta go with J.I. on this one. I think it's a lock for $400M, no matter if it's not as good as the first one. Same thing happened with Transformers ($319M) and Transformers 2 ($402).

And this stuck out to me:
And it’s rare that a superhero-franchise sequel actually surpasses its predecessor.
X-Men - $157M / X-Men 2 - $214M
Batman Begins - $205M / The Dark Knight - $533M
Hellboy - $59M / Hellboy 2 - $75M
Transformers - $319M / Transformers 2 - $402
Blade - $70M / Blade 2 - $82M
POTC - $305M / POTC2 - $423M

The only sequels that didn't do better that I can think of are Fantastic Four 2 and Spider-Man 2
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/7

Post by Buscemi »

$140 million opening on Iron Man 2.

If I were Universal, I'd make Babies the widest-released documentary of all time. With all of the advertising that I've seen, 510 theatres is a ridiculously small numbers.

And don't trust pre-opening ratings on Sundance selections. IMDb voters and Sundance attendees will trash any film that isn't quirky or pretentious (that is also why Splice had a mixed reaction at Sundance but has been well-received at other festivals).
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/7

Post by Shrykespeare »

Wow.... three years of credibility, shot to hell.

Oh, well... back to drinkin'.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/7

Post by undeadmonkey »

actually i dont think it's so set in stone that iron man 2 will be such a monster hit. yes in all possibility it could be as huge as some of you say, but it could also do what shryke said

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/7

Post by Buscemi »

Also, I'd put A Nightmare On Elm Street's second week numbers at $6.5 million. The movie opened to less than Friday the 13th and its drop numbers have been higher than Friday the 13th. Pretty poor statistics.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/7

Post by Ron Burgundy »

id say those numbers are pretty much spot on
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/7

Post by Shrykespeare »

Box Office Mojo Estimates that Iron Man 2 has pulled in $52.4 million on Friday, including $7.5 in Thursday midnight showings.

So it looks like I was a little low, and it will probably take in in the neighborhood of $130-$140M. No way in hell it will break TDK's record.

Meanwhile, nothing else will make over $10M.

Babies made $380,000 in 534 theaters (PTA of $712), so forget about any significant PTA points. (Because it's the first week of the May leagues, all of this week's limited release films will get at least one point, so there's that, but it looks like Babies will be on the bottom of the pile.)
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/7

Post by undeadmonkey »

you were still closer than most people

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/7

Post by Buscemi »

I saw Babies today at the local arthouse and it didn't have much of a crowd. Also, it really isn't the type of thing that you would see at a multiplex (the average soccer mom would most likely cry foul over the lack of dialogue, no subtitles on non-English dialogue and the scenes of childbirth, breastfeeding and numerous bare breasts).
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/7

Post by W »

What's funny is how people are saying $130+ M OW is disappointing. Are we really that spoiled that we expect a record to be broken every time a giant film opens? Fifth place all time isn't good enough.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 5/7

Post by undeadmonkey »

i dont think they are calling it a disappointment, i think they are disappointed that it didnt reach their high expectations. but i do think that the end result will not be too much higher than the first picture. $300M-$320M

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