Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: March 13th-15th

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Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: March 13th-15th

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2020 hasn’t been the most intriguing of film years so far. Between the large number of delayed films and non-starters, the only breakouts so far seem to have been 90’s nostalgia pieces Bad Boys for Life and Sonic the Hedgehog. This week features another 90’s nostalgia flick, along with a sequel few outside of the Evangelical community demanded and one (or was it two?) title delayed from last year. Also to be covered: a single limited release.

Last Week

Onward took the box office weekend and second in PTA with what’s felt to be a disappointing $39.1 million take. Cinemascore was an A- so maybe it holds in future weeks. The Invisible Man held steady in second with $15.1 million (46% drop) and got another PTA point. Third place was the Ben Affleck basketball drama The Way Back with an $8.2 million weekend while fourth and fifth were kid-friendly holdovers Sonic the Hedgehog and The Call of the Wild. Emma expanded to a sixth place finish with $4.8 million but a B Cinemascore doesn’t suggest strong holds.

In the limited scene, Kelly Reichardt’s frontier drama First Cow was the top prize with $24,014 per theatre. It looks to expand slowly throughout March and April, so expect more points. The Whistlers and Swallow followed Onward for the third and fourth spots, respectively.

This Week

Warning: article may getting politically charged. Hold onto something.

“Believe” in Angels

What will possibly the biggest performer this weekend is I Still Believe (Lionsgate), a loosely-connected sequel to 2018’s biggest sleeper hit I Can Only Imagine. But rather than being a film based on a song that was apparently bigger than we thought, this is now a straight biopic of musician Jeremy Camp. Camp, who performed the song where the title comes from, is a Christian musician whose wife battled ovarian cancer during the early years of their marriage. The film focuses on how they used their faith to fight that cancer like it was Thanos. Much moralizing ensues in this film which stars KJ Apa, Britt Robertson, Shania Twain, and Gary Sinise.

The Erwin Brothers have made a cottage industry of being The Kendrick Brothers without the backing of a church. Ever since their 2011 anti-choice film October Baby was released in a test run in their native Tennessee, the team has gone from working with Sony’s faith-based label with their Bridesmaids ripoff Mom’s Night Out to Pure Flix for their Remember the Titans ripoff Woodlawn to forging a relationship with Lionsgate with the somehow popular I Can Only Imagine. Lionsgate seems to see big things with this one as the studio has now fast-tracked American Underdog, a biopic on NFL great Kurt Warner, for a Christmas release. This will also be getting IMAX screens and is a strong bet for an A+ Cinemascore. But will it be enough?

Box Office Potential: I Can Only Imagine made a stellar $83 million domestic two years back. A gross at half that number would be solid for most studios but possibly a disappointment to Lionsgate. With its 3,100 theatre count, I expect a $15 million opening and a $45 million finish.

“Blood” from a Turnip

Next on the docket is Bloodshot (Sony/Columbia), a film that was hoped to be the start of a planned Valiant Cinematic Universe, an indie label that thrived during the 1990’s comic book boom only to die off due to financial troubles and an alliance between them and Image Comics going south. As the 90’s are the hot thing right now, Sony felt that doing a shared universe with the Valiant characters would go well with their Jumanji and Bad Boys successes. But after seeing an early cut of this one, Sony chose to put all their other Valiant titles into turnaround, making what was intended to be their MCU into Dark Universe.

Vin Diesel stars as the titular character, a marine who is turned into a killing machine by scientists after his family is assassinated. When he is reborn, he does not remember his past but quickly regains those memories and soon comes to realize that what’s on the surface is not exactly how it looks. Sounds a lot like RoboCop. Eiza Gonzalez, Sam Heughan, Toby Kebbell, and Guy Pearce co-star.

Sony, not being happy with the film, is more or less choosing to dump it with Diesel’s name being the main selling point. But Vin’s track record when not playing Dominic Toretto is mostly mediocre. Also, the film is just visually unappealing with its overly red color scheme. A good action director and an experienced writer might have made this seem interesting. Instead, we got a first-time director and the guy who did the Fantasy Island movie as co-writer.

Box Office Potential: I’m sure that if anyone wants their usual fill of Diesel fuel, they’ll just wait for F9. $10 million opening, $21 million finish.

Dog Will “Hunt”

Last is a film that I didn’t think I’d have to cover but here we go. The Hunt (Universal) was originally pulled from its September release due to a series of mass shootings. But while that hasn’t entirely stopped other films in the past, such as 2018’s remake of Death Wish, the plot thickened when the script was leaked and the film revealed itself to be a violent thriller where alt-right figures are being hunted by rich liberals and the former begin to fight back, much like in The Most Dangerous Game. Oddly, the audience that would have embraced such a film condemned it without having seen a frame of film (Universal and Blumhouse are even using this as the main selling point, despite pre-release screenings to said figures).

Now opening in a surprising 3,000 theatres, this film starring Betty Gilpin and Hilary Swank and directed by Homestar Runner co-creator Craig Zobel, has been running late in awareness but Universal seems to believe in it more than the other film they basically muted its ad campaign after the controversy, Queen & Slim. But for every Joker, you have a film like No Safe Spaces, which barely cleared a million while aiming itself towards a similar audience. The Hunt does not have a big star or a hook to sell itself and more or less feels like an afterthought designed to go towards an angry group of people who are more likely going to stay home and watch Ben Shapiro or Steven Crowder or whoever’s popular on YouTube that preaches to the choir. Maybe a few fans of screenwriter Damon Lindelof’s The Leftovers or Watchmen may show, but I’m not sure why anyone would want to see a Hollywoodized version of an Infowars video.

Box Office Potential: the biggest comparable would seem to be 2014’s The Interview, which brought in conspiracy theorists and modern-day patriots galore on opening night before disappearing into the Netflix streams. But that was in much fewer theatres and only played at night in most of them. With limited marketing and not much buzz, I’d expect a $7 million opening and a $15 million finish.

Arthouse Class 101

This week, we take to the class with one title.

Never, Rarely, Sometimes, Always (Focus) – the abortion debate has been heating up in recent years, especially with the release of last year’s Evangelical exploitation film Unplanned, which was a minor enough success that states made draconian laws against women’s rights because political figures took the film’s debunked claims hook, line and sinker. This film could be seen as a bit of an answer to that film but has stood on its own merits, managing excellent reviews (92 on Metacritic) and a Silver Bear win at Berlin. The premise focuses on a girl in the wilds of rural Pennsylvania, where everyone has a gun and you aren’t sure if it’s Kentucky or Alabama, who with limited options to terminate her unwanted pregnancy, heads off to New York with her cousin to make the abortion happen. In the process, the two learn about themselves and come of age.

So, this should be a big film in New York and Los Angeles. However, expansion will be a problem. A lot of theatres in middle America aren’t going to book it due to the themes. And Focus, realizing that they have a hot-button film their hands, seems to have given it a low-key promotional campaign to avoid controversy much like their parent company’s opener has. So much like the girls having to go to another state to fix their problem, will interested audiences go the few hours or so to their nearest to see it? It’s going to take a lot of box office and stealthily avoiding the angry anti-choice people for it to happen.

12-14 PTA points and $2-3 million in box office.


Top 5: Onward, I Still Believe, Bloodshot, The Invisible Man, The Hunt
PTA: Never Rarely Sometimes Always, First Cow, Onward, I Still Believe, wild card from an Uno deck

Next week, Six will handle a single wide release, A Quiet Place Part II (Paramount), and two limiteds, The Climb (Sony Pictures Classics), and The Truth (IFC).
Last edited by Buscemi2 on March 10th, 2020, 2:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: March 13th-15th

Post by Shrykespeare »

I've seen almost nothing for Bloodshoot. Add this to the growing list of 2020 flops.



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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: March 13th-15th

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It's a week of duds. I Still Believe has the best shot, but it won't be great.

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: March 13th-15th

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And with the world going to hell right now (I was involved with a post-film discussion of Portrait of a Lady on Fire when we found out about Tom Hanks catching the virus and the NBA suspending its season, the NHL seems to be still going as the Blues were playing that game that was postponed a month back), I have to think some audiences will tread with caution now.

Of course, a lot of I Still Believe's audience probably still thinks Coronavirus is a hoax.

And speaking of Tom Hanks, I've come to realize that I might be at risk now, especially if I still get to visit Los Angeles next month (WarnerMedia has been mum about TCMCFF but will have to potentially refund European visitors). I've never mentioned this but I've been diabetic for four years. Luckily, I've been able to keep my condition in check and am in one of the lesser-effected areas. But I can't let myself live in fear. That only makes things worse. I can hope for the best but that also requires a bunch of other people doing the important things. Unfortunately, I know there are those who only look out for Number One.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: March 13th-15th

Post by W »

I know a lot of conservative people. In our area you typically must be a Democrat to run for office but almost all our politicians would be considered centrist. I have yet to see/hear "hoax". "Overblown" yes. Specifically "unless you're elderly or have a respiratory condition you don't need to fear for your life." But I don't see anyone saying not be precautionary. It will only get worse for the theaters in the coming weeks no matter what type of movie is playing.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: March 13th-15th

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

You'll probably want to get a refund on that flight, Busc. TCMFF just cancelled and LA isn't somewhere you want to be right now. I'm pretty sure all non-essential travel is advised against at this point.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: March 13th-15th

Post by Brockster »

Absolutely. My wife and I were supposed to take our kids to see Onward this weekend and we aren't going anymore. If this hangs around awhile, it's going to really hurt this summers movies. Sucks :(

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: March 13th-15th

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I have a film in the San Fran film festival and now it's looking unlikely :(

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: March 13th-15th

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I'm working on that plane refund.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: March 13th-15th

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Also, is The Roads Not Taken still part of the game? It's out this weekend.

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: March 13th-15th

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I didn't see it on the list. But reviews have been terrible (the worst of Sally Potter's career), so I wouldn't expect too much.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: March 13th-15th

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It’s real bad out there guys. Worst weekend since the 1990’s maybe. Just got back from Bloodshot. We have zero confirmed cases of the virus in my county. One other guy in the theater.

On the plus side it was the cleanest the theater has ever been. You could smell the disinfectant before you walked in the door.

FYI, Bloodshot is horrible and reminds you that Vin Diesel cannot act over and over. Winnie the Bish doing a bad English accent is mildly amusing though.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: March 13th-15th

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I went saw The Thing tonight and it was almost sold out. The scheduling of this one was a complete coincidence.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: March 13th-15th

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

I Still Believe, $4M
Bloodshot, $3.8M
Onward, $3.2M
The Hunt, $2.2M
The Invisible Man, $1.8M



Weekend Projections:

Onward, $13M
I Still Believe, $10.4M
Bloodshot, $9.3M
The Invisible Man, $6.3M
The Hunt, $5.5M
Sonic the Hedgehog, $3.3M
The Call of the Wild, $2.5M
The Way Back, $2.3M
Emma, $1.4M
Bad Boys For Life, $1.1M
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: March 13th-15th

Post by W »

Deadline predicting the lowest weekend since 1998.

Top 5 then were:
1. Rounders OW $8.5 m
2. There’s Something About Mary Week 9 $7 M
3. Blade week 4 $5.2 M
4. Saving Private Ryan week 8 $4.5 M
5. Simon Birch OW in 596 theaters $3.3 M

That’s pure numbers though. Taking inflation into account you’d have to go back to before they started keeping track of this stuff I’d think.
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