Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/6

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/6

Post by transformers2 »

Leave it to Blumhouse to put a stop to 2020's horror skid.

Leigh Whannell's timely version of The Invisible Man rode its strong reviews to an impressive $28.2 mil debut-which was good enough for it to become the first horror flick to hold the #1 spot at the box office since It: Chapter Two back in September. Considering its surprisingly backloaded OW, terrific WOM for the genre and aforementioned glut of poorly received horror titles (The Grudge, The Turning, The Boy 2, fellow Blumhouse title Fantasy Island) that opened the year, The Invisible Man appears to be in a good position to play strongly in the coming weeks.

Elsewhere, it was a quiet holdover weekend with Sonic the Hedgehog ($16.3 mil) and The Call of the Wild ($13.4 mil) being the only previously released titles to clear the $5 mil mark. With Onward, A Quiet Place Part 2 and Mulan set to dominate the marketplace in March, that massive distance between the top 2-3 films and everything else at the box office isn't likely going to end anytime soon.

The big story on the limited front wasn't that Saint Frances was able to squeak out the PTA crown in 1 theater, but that (Fox) Searchlight’s Wendy was greeted with the same indifference by audiences that critics showed it following its premiere at Sundance last month. Benh Zeitlin's new spin on the classic story of Peter Pan posted a very unimpressive $6,553 OW PTA in just 4 theaters. Not a good look for a director that waited 8 years to follow up the buzzed out Beasts of the Southern Wild.

Wide Releases:
Pixar is kicking off the new decade by doing the unthinkable: releasing two original projects in the same year! The first of which, Onward (Disney), is remarkably the first original film the animation juggernaut has released since 2017's Coco and only the fifth total since 2010. As disappointing as it is to watch a studio that developed its stellar reputation by delivering high quality original projects give into industry trends, Pixar has been in the sequel business for a reason of late. With the notable exception of Inside Out, their recent original efforts haven't even sniffed the numbers that the likes of Finding Dory, The Incredibles 2 and Toy Story 4 have put up domestically. Even the widely acclaimed Coco was barely able to squeak past $200 mil in the States.

Does this comparative lack of success for non-sequels mean Onward is guaranteed to not breakout? Of course not. It has a pair of lead voice actors who are likely on the radar of young kids due to their involvement in the MCU, no serious competition for at least the next few weeks and a premise centered around two brothers going on a mission to spend a day with their deceased father before its too late that fits the patented tear duct-assaulting Pixar mold. However, it's overt fantasy elements and that pesky lack of brand familiarity could prevent it from really taking off.
Prediction: $35-55 mil OW/7-14 Top 5/3-8 PTA/low to mid 7 IMDb/$125-205 mil overall BO
Price (FEB-APR): $44 ULT/$45 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: I'm not confident enough that Onward is going to earn enough to justify its hefty pricetag in either format.


Remember inspirational sports dramas? It seemed like a couple times of year throughout the 90's and 00's audiences were treated to the story of an unsung, adversity-plagued team coming together to succeed against all odds. In recent years since Disney abandoned the genre following the failures of McFarland, USA and Million Dollar Arm, they've pretty much gone extinct. The Way Back (Warner Brothers) represents the rare instance where a story like this is hitting theaters in the modern era. Here, it's not just the team seeking redemption as their new coach (Ben Affleck) is a former star basketball player whose post-playing career has been plagued by pain, addiction and self-sabotage. Some melodramatic plot points, life lessons for both players and coach and an uplifting ending are likely to follow. There's no reviews out yet, but widespread critical enthusiasm couldn't save Gavin O'Connor's previous contribution to this genre (2011's Warrior) from flopping, so The Way Back is doomed regardless.
Prediction: $5-11 mil OW/0-2 Top 5/0 PTA/high 6 to low 7 IMDb/$13-35 mil overall BO
Price (FEB-APR): $10 ULT/$10 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Leave it on the bench coach.


Limited Releases:
First Cow (A24) checks all of the boxes for a successful specialty release. Kelly Reichardt is one of the most respected filmmakers in indie circles today, it won raves at both Telluride and New York and currently sits at 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and 83 on Metacritic, and A24 is the single most beloved indie studio around right now. With that resume and a weak month of limited releases ahead, double digit PTA points are certainly in play.
Prediction: $65-135K OW/4-12 PTA/low to mid 7 IMDb/$800k-3 mil overall BO
Price (FEB-APR): $5 ULT/$2 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: No doubt


Unlike First Cow, The Burnt Orange Hersey (Sony Classics) came out of fall festival season with very little fanfare despite receiving a gala screening at Toronto and the prestigious closing night slot in Venice. This dramatic thriller centered around a wealthy art collector (Donald Sutherland) who tasks an art critic (Claes Bang) and his new lover (Elizabeth Debicki) to steal a painting from the studio of an acclaimed reclusive artist (Mick Jagger) has received a very mixed reception (53% on RT, current IMDb score of 5.7) from the small amount of people that have seen it thus far. Sony doesn't seem to have much faith in it either since they're dumping it on a weekend with a potential limited juggernaut. Unless Rolling Stones fans flock to see if Jagger can act as well as he can dance, this will likely come and go from theaters quietly.
Prediction: $33-66K OW/1-4 PTA/high 5 to low 6 IMDb/$65-200k overall BO
Price (FEB-APR): $3 ULT/$1 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: While it's likely to sneak out a couple of PTA points this weekend, it's not an exciting long-term option.


Rounding out this arthouse trio is Swallow (IFC)-a psychological thriller about a pregnant woman (Haley Bennett) who develops an obsession with swallowing dangerous objects. After her family starts to control every facet of her life as a result, dark secrets that reveal the root of her hazardous hobby come to light. While the early word has been strong (88% RT), IFC releases are always a crapshoot from a PTA standpoint, so this will be nothing more than a cheap dice roll option.
Prediction: $10-33K OW/0-5 PTA/high 6 to low 7 IMDb/$15-45k overall BO
Price (FEB-APR): $3 ULT/$1 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Maybe, maybe not.


Weekend Projections:
1.Onward $42 mil
2.The Invisible Man $18 mil
3.Sonic the Hedgehog $10.5 mil
4.The Call of the Wild $9 mil
5.The Way Back $8 mil
-Emma (wide expansion) $6.5 mil

PTA: First Cow, Onward, The Invisible Man, The Burnt Orange Hersey, Saint Frances

Tune in next week when Boosh previews a massive slate that includes Lionsgate's latest entry in the Movies Based on Songs by Christian Artists Extended Universe, yet another Blumhouse title that looked like it wasn't ever going to see light of day as recently as last month, Vin Diesel's latest attempt to launch a franchise that will continue to keep him employed for the next 20 years and of course, Dave Bautista's long-awaited answer to The Pacifier and The Game Plan.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/6

Post by Buscemi2 »

I'm not sure what's going on with The Burnt Orange Heresy. One day, Sony said they would dump it onto Apple in a few weeks after its opening but a few days later, they announced plans to expand it wide later in March. Of course, they also had plans to expand Pain & Glory wide and that ended up not happening.

Meanwhile, I could see Emma outdoing The Way Back. The latter hasn't been marketed well while Emma has already sold out showings near me.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/6

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater Counts:

Onward - 4,310
The Way Back - 2,718
First Cow - 4
The Burnt Orange Heresy - 4




Celebrity birthdays:

Rebel Wilson turned 40 on 3/2
Rachel Weisz turns 50 on 3/7
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/6

Post by transformers2 »

Legitimately boggles my mind that Rebel Wilson is 40.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/6

Post by Buscemi2 »

Well, she did win a libel suit a while back when someone claimed she was even older.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/6

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Onward, $40.0M
4 points - The Invisible Man, $15.1M
3 points - The Way Back, $8.5M
2 points - Sonic the Hedgehog, $8.0M
1 point - The Call of the Wild, $7.0M
Emma, $5.0M
Bad Boys For Life, $3.0M ($200M!!!!!!)
Birds of Prey, $2.2M
My Hero Academia, $1.5M
1917, $1.4M


PTA:
5 points - First Cow
4 points - Onward
3 points - The Burnt Orange Heresy
2 points - Swallow
1 point - The Invisible Man
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/6

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Onward, $39.1M (5)
4 points - The Invisible Man, $15.1M (9)
3 points - The Way Back, $8.2M (3)
2 points - Sonic the Hedgehog, $7.7M (16)
1 point - The Call of the Wild, $6.8M (8)
Emma, $4.8M
Bad Boys For Life, $3.0M ($200M!!!!!!)
Birds of Prey, $2.1M
Impractical Jokers, $1.8M
My Hero Academia, $1.7M


PTA:
5 points - First Cow, $96,059 (5)
4 points - Onward, $9,076 (4)
3 points - The Whistlers, $5,961 (5)
2 points - Swallow, $4,283 (2)
1 point - The Invisible Man, $4,191 (4)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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