Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/3

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/3

Post by transformers2 »

Another prosperous holiday frame is in the books and as expected, the big franchises came out on top.

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker ($72.4 mil 3-day/$135 mil 5-day) and Jumanji: The Next Level ($35.3 mil 3-day/$59 mil 5-day) easily held onto the top 2 spots. While they're both trailing behind their 2017 predecessors at this point, they still appear to be in good shape heading into the new year.

Success wasn't just limited to the tentpoles. Greta Grewig's widely-acclaimed take on Little Women grossed a terrific $29 mil over the 5-day frame, Adam Sandler-led crime thriller Uncut Gems is well on its way to becoming a top 3 all time earner for A24 after making nearly $20 mil in its 1st 5 days of wide release and even Fox's latest animated project Spies in Disguise posted a respectable showing ($13.2 mil 3-day/$22.1 mil 5-day) in a highly competitive family market.

On the limited side, 1917 got off to a fantastic start in 11 theaters-bringing in just over $1 mil in its first 5 days of release. Long-term prospects continue to look fantastic for Sam Mendes' World War 1 drama, which opens wide next weekend, and they could get even better if it racks up some Oscar nominations on January 13. Trailing behind in the #2 and #3 PTA spots respectively were Just Mercy, which opened to a pretty strong $222k from Wednesday-Sunday in 4 theaters and Clemency-which mustered a respectable $35k in 2 theaters following its opening on Friday.

Wide Release:
I don't know about you guys, but the start of a new decade in film really excites me. The whole process of getting to see new artists emerge, seeing what trajectory the careers of established actors/filmmakers take and of course, what titles become new favorites is a huge part of what makes this artform so special. While I'm not the type of person that likes to make guarantees, I don't envision the first film released during this decade, The Grudge (Sony), is going to be among the movies I'll be coveting when the 2020's are finished.

Of all the recent entries in the revival game, this has got to be a contender for the most baffling. The Grudge franchise has been dormant as a theatrical property since 2006 and The Grudge 2 underwent nothing but steep drops after a solid opening (it finished its domestic run with $39.1 mil after a $20.8 mil opening).

The reboot's biggest sales pitch is that it's rated R. The ad's they're running on TV have the R rating in huge font in the corner of the screen in case anybody didn't get the memo that this isn't your grandfather's murderous demon child movie. Will this grittier, gorier philosophy help its BO take? Perhaps a little, but it's still not likely going to be enough to get audiences to return to a series that wasn't exactly beloved in the first place. A finish slightly above 2017's Rings ($27.8 mil) seems like an absolute best case scenario for this strong character actor-led (Andrea Riseborough, Demian Bichir, John Cho, Lin Shaye, Jacki Weaver, Betty Glipin, William Sadler) version of the Japanese cult classic.
Prediction: $7-14 mil OW/0-2 Top 5/0-1 PTA/high 5 to low 6 IMDb/$18-35 mil overall BO
Price (DEC-FEB): $9 ULT/$8 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Emphatic no.


Weekend Projections
1.Star Wars $33 mil
2.Jumanji $26 mil
3.Little Women $14 mil
4.Frozen II $12 mil
5.The Grudge $10.5 mil

PTA: 1917, Just Mercy, Clemency, Little Women, Jumanji

Tune in next week when Boosh discusses the prospects of a pair of long-delayed studio releases (Underwater, Like a Boss), awards contenders receiving wide expansions (1917, Just Mercy) and an indie drama that may or may not report (Three Christs).
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/3

Post by Shrykespeare »

Has the first release of the year ALWAYS been horror? Curious.



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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/3

Post by numbersix »

It's a good question, but as far as I can recall it has.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/3

Post by Shrykespeare »

Let's see.

Here are the films that were released on the very first weekend of January

2019 - Escape Room (more thriller than horror, but I won't split that hair)
2018 - Insidious: The Last Key
2017 - Underworld: Blood Wars (more fantasy than horror, but there were horror elements)
2016 - no wide releases (The Forest)
2015 - Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death
2014 - Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones
2013 - Texas Chainsaw 3D
2012 - The Devil Inside
2011 - Season of the Witch (again, more fantasy than horror)
2010 - no wide releases (Daybreakers released in Week 2)
2009 - no wide releases (The Unborn released in Week 2)
2008 - One Missed Call (thriller)

2007 - Freedom Writers, Happily N'Ever After, Code Name: The Cleaner

So there's our answer. While some of these releases were not technically horror, they did contain enough scares to brush against the line. The Grudge makes 13 straight years of horror(ish) leading off the year.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/3

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The Hateful Eight expanded wide on New Year's Eve 2015, if you want to count it for 2016.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/3

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Early reviews on The Grudge point to it being another unnecessary remake with few scares. It will be interesting to see how it plays with audiences.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/3

Post by Brockster »

Does anyone know if Clemency is set to expand? I have it in the FY draft and was hoping it would!

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/3

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Boosh: PostTrak exits were at 0.5 stars last night, which isn't a huge shock since the film is apparently a slow burn drama with no gore or scares for the first 2/3 of its runtime. An F Cinemascore could very well be on deck.

Brockster: Not sure when Clemency is set to expand. It seems like Neon is taking it slow because of the oversaturated marketplace right now, so it might not go wide until the end of the month.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/3

Post by Buscemi2 »

Black Christmas was hated by the horror fans (you know, the ones who are still hung up by that Siskel & Ebert episode from 1980 accusing the genre of misogyny) but didn't manage an F Cinemascore. I'm thinking a C range is likely for The Grudge.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/3

Post by transformers2 »

While they don't always match up in terms of reactions, even Black Christmas managed 1.5 stars on PostTrak. It might fall short of an F, but anything higher than a D+ would be pretty surprising given how bad the early reactions have been.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/3

Post by Screen203 »

Having seen it, I think it's plausible that The Grudge could get an F. The ending is incredibly abrupt and a downer. The audience I saw it with hated it - no boos, but the audience was laughing and heckling the ending.

I doubt that politics will have anything to do with the score (honestly it could be considered a conservative film - a character that practices euthanasia as assisted suicide arguably has the most brutal death of the characters, and the soundtrack seems to suggest that John Cho's wife is only to be sympasised with after she decides to keep her unborn child with a high risk of devolving a disorder; from looking it up, the child would have a high risk of becoming a vegetable).
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/3

Post by Buscemi2 »

And Tranny was right. I'll fully see why audiences hate this film on Sunday.

But personally, can it be any worse than the director's last film?
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/3

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Star Wars, $11.0M
Jumanji, $8.6M
The Grudge, $5.3M
Little Women, $4.4M
Frozen II, $3.9M
Spies in Disguise, $3.6M
Knives Out, $2.9M
Uncut Gems, $2.5M
Bombshell, $1.3M




Weekend Projections:

Star War, $36M
Jumanji, $26M
Little Women, $13M
The Grudge, $11.5M
Frozen, $11.4M
Spies in Disguise, $10.2M
Knives Out, $8.8M
Uncut Gems, $7.5M
Bombshell, $4M
Cats, $2.5M



PTA:
1917, $54K
Just Mercy, $17.5K
Star Wars, $8.2K
Jumanji, $6.3K
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/3

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, $33.7M
4 points - Jumanji: The Next Level, $26.5M
3 points - Little Women, $13.6M
2 points - The Grudge, $11.3M
1 point - Frozen II, $11.3M
Spies in Disguise, $10.1M
Knives Out, $9.0M
Uncut Gems, $7.8M
Bombshell, $4.1M
Cats, $2.6M



PTA:
5 points - 1917, $54K
4 points - Just Mercy, $19K
3 points - Star Wars; The Rise of Skywalker, $7.7K
2 points - Jumanji: The Next Level, $6.4K
1 point - The Grudge, $4.3K




Star Wars edges ahead of Frozen II. Both are right around $450M so far.

Jumanji 2 has turned into a better hit than we thought after its relatively soft opening. It's now at $236M and still going strong.

Knives Out clears $130M.

Little Women has already earned $60M. $80M seems likely.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 1/3

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, $34.5M
4 points - Jumanji: The Next Level, $26.2M
3 points - Little Women, $13.6M
2 points - Frozen II, $18.5M
1 point - The Grudge, $11.4M
Spies in Disguise, $10.4M
Knives Out, $8.9M
Uncut Gems, $7.6M
Bombshell, $4.1M
Cats, $2.6M



PTA:
5 points - 1917, $56,154
4 points - Just Mercy, $19,154
3 points - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, $7,836
2 points - Jumanji: The Next Level, $6,344
1 point - The Grudge, $4,316
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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