Screening The Holidays

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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Screen203
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Screening The Holidays

Post by Screen203 »

Last Week

Amid mixed reviews and mixed audience reception, the latest "last" of the increasingly divisive Star Wars films opened to a predictably large number (175 million). However, there are some signs of trouble brewing. The film was front-loaded, even by Star Wars standards (over half of the opening number was grossed on Friday), and the CinemaScore was low (only a B+). As for the holdovers, Jumanji held on okay, with a 55 percent drop to 26 million, as did Frozen 2 (down 36 percent to 12 million) and Star Wars veteran Rian Johnson's modern-day Agatha Christie sendup Knives Out (down only 33 percent to 6 million). The other opener, Cats, bombed with only 6 million after months of bad buzz, and the expansion of last week's PTA blockbuster Bombshell did mediocre numbers (5 million), although it should hold up well after the holidays, as moviegoers probably don't want to see something they can see on the news practically every day for the holidays.

This Week

First we have Little Women.


Sony was very smart in slotting the latest adaptation of the classic novel, directed by Greta Gerwig, director of sleeper hit Lady Bird and writer and star of the critically-acclaimed Noah Baumbach film Frances Ha, on Christmas. It has a star-studded cast, including Emma Watson and Meryl Streep, and great reviews. The disaster that is Cats will help as well.The only thing I could see holding it back is the well-received 1994 version still being somewhat popular.

I predict about 20 million for the three day, and 125 million (boosted by the awards season and the lack of major competition for it's first few weeks)

I expect it will get 3 points in Top 5 OW, and around 7 or 8 points in total. It's likely a better choice in Ultimate than Box Office, as it will likely have a larger PTA than most of the wide releases at the time, both due to an estimated 2,500 theater count and heavy interest in top markets.

As for IMDb, I would normally assume it would be heavily downvoted by incels, but it will likely be dismissed by them considering it's a drama based on a novel from the 19th century which typically has a reputation for being relatively conservative (although certainly very progressive for its time.)

Next up, we have Spies In Disguise.

I don't know what to say about this one. The premise, while relatively original, seems like something you could find on the Cartoon Network. Will Smith has had a mixed past few years at the box office, with bombs like Gemini Man and Focus (though I think that did well overseas). Tom Holland is unproven as a draw, and Blue Skies Animation hasn't had many successes recently. Reviews have been suprisingly solid, considering the delays it has faced, and it's the only option for young children since Frozen, and until Sonic.

I'll say about 15 million over the three day, and 70 million in total. Will get you about 2 points in Top 5 on opening, and 3-4 overall. Likely a better choice in Box Office than Ultimate, but I don't think it's worth it in either. PTA will be a non-factor.

IMDb should be decent, but not outstanding.

And for the limited releases...

1917



is the latest from Sam Mendes, who has a mixed history both with audiences and critics. The latest from the American Beauty director seems to be on the upside so far. Reviews have been glowing, and Universal has cut a masterful, aggressive marketing campaign.

I expect a massive PTA, and great numbers upon expansion for a total over 135 million.

It is a great choice in both Box Office and Ultimate.

IMDb should be very high as well.

Just Mercy



Also opening on Christmas Day, the true story of death row attorney Bryan Stevenson (played by Michael B. Jordan) who fought racism to get innocent people off of death row has strong reviews, but I worry the dark themes will be a hard sell to audiences once it goes wide. The powerful trailers and awards attention should help, though.

I'll say a huge PTA, then a 10 million opening and 45 million total. It's good in Ultimate, not as good in Box Office.

IMDb should be somewhat positive.

The Song Of Names



I don't see this doing well. Despite a premise that seems like a easy winner at the Oscars, reviews have been mixed to negative. I don't think the book was that successful, either. It still looks compelling, but I think it will be lost in the holiday rush.

I see a mediocre PTA, and no wide expansion.

IMDb should be okay, despite that site's reputation.

And on the 27th, Clemency.



Showing the other side of death row, this film has gotten praise for Alfre Woodard's performance. I don't think this will translate into audiences embracing it. The subject matter is very dark (and the movie is allegedly very hard to watch, compared to the more mainstream Just Mercy which tackles similar themes), and there hasn't been much marketing.

It might do okay in PTA, but it's a non-starter in Box Office. Still, I wouldn't recommend putting it on either.

The downvoting IMDb trolls probably aren't aware of this film's release, so it should score highly from the people who've actually seen the movie.

Join us next week for when transformers takes on the remake of a remake in The Grudge, and the limited release The Three Christs. Until then, have a great whichever-holiday-you-celebrate
It's not destroying. It's making something new.

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Shrykespeare
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Re: Screening The Holidays

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Star Wars, $26.2M
Jumanji, $11.7M
Frozen II, $6M
Little Women, $5.7M
Spies in Disguise, $4.6M
Uncut Gems, $3.3M
Cats, $1.7M
Richard Jewell, $1.1M



Weekend Projections:

Star Wars, $76.8M
Jumanji, $33.5M
Frozen II, $16.9M
Little Women, $16.8M ($29.3M 5-day)
Spies in Disguise, $13.4M ($22.3M 5-day)
Uncut Gems, $9.8M
Knives Out, $9.5M
Cats, $4.9M
Bombshell, $4.5M
Richard Jewell, $3.0M


PTA:
1917, $57.2K
Just Mercy, $32.5K
Star Wars, $17.4K
Jumanji, $7.6K




Celebrity birthdays:

Sissy Spacek turned 70 on 12/25
John Amos turned 80 on 12/27
Noomi Rapace turns 40 on 12/29
Diego Luna turns 40 on 12/29
Patricia Clarkson turns 60 on 12/29
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Shrykespeare
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Re: Screening The Holidays

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, $72.4M
4 points - Jumanji: The Next Level, $35.3M
3 points - Frozen II, $16.9M
2 points - Little Women, $16.8M ($29.2M 5-day)
1 point - Spies in Disguise, $13.4M ($22.2M 5-day)
Knives Out, $9.9M
Uncut Gems, $9.6M
Cats, $4.8M
Bombshell, $4.8M
Richard Jewell, $3.1M


PTA:
5 points - 1917, $52.383
4 points - Just Mercy, $27.250
3 points - Clemency, $17,682
2 points - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, $16,430
1 point - Jumanji: The Next Level, $8,353

Will try to get the results and the January pricing schemes done by tomorrow.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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