SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/20

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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numbersix
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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/20

Post by numbersix »

Go big or go home was the moral of the story last weekend, with the films either greatly surpassing expectations or hugely failing. On the plus side, the latest Jumanji film opened to $60m, 24m more than the previous film’s first weekend, well ahead of the worsening estimates from the experts. While it’s unlikely to earn as much by the end of its run, we’re still going to see it swing past the $200m mark. And on the limited front prestige titles Uncut Gems and Bombshell delivered some of the highest theatre averages of the year, suggesting great prospects for their wide releases. On the other side of the success scale, Black Christmas earned less than half of the average industry prediction, and so too did Clint Eastwood’s latest. This season just doesn’t have time for modest releases, even if one is cynically woke and the other cynically anti-MSM. Maybe adult audiences are just waiting for something a little larger…




Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) is a little indie film that rounds off 3 trilogies (tritrilogy?) that you may not have heard much about. But it has its niche. In this film, we get the final part of the story of Rey, Ben and Finn, the yung-uns who were introduced in JJ Abrams derivative The Force Awakens, and now must face the Emperor, who has been conveniently resurrected in what will probably be a straight remake of Return of the Jedi.

So, what’s been going on in the financial world of Star Wars? The previous film, the bold but uneven The Last Jedi, seemed to have received some backlash for its questionable choices (a humanized Luke Skywalker! Men making mistakes! Assertive women!!!) which, whether you agree with the criticisms or not, have stuck. Of more concern was the disaster that was Solo, which was a huge financial loss for the seemingly invincible franchise. And the reviews so far have been muted, with many unimpressed by the fan servicing. On the more positive side, Disney+ series The Mandalorian seems to be pleasing the crowd with its Baby Yoda becoming an instant meme.

With Rise being marketed as the end of the entire saga, you’d expect this to have a record opening. But there’s something not quite right about this weekend’s prospects. There just doesn’t seem to be enough buzz about it. This may open below Jedi’s 220m. That may seem like a disaster, but I expect Abrams will give audiences enough satisfaction and closure to give the film some strong legs. A $200m opening and a $700m cume feels about right. When it comes to the game it’s a no-brainer in BO. Even if it cost $100 for your slate it would still be worth it, as no rival is going to come close this season. But what about ultimate? It’ll cost a hefty $54 or $55 in the mini rounds. The Last Jedi earned 18 T5 points, 10 PTA, an IMDB of 7.1, and $620m by the end of its run. It actually wasn’t quite worth it, with two mid level films probably doing better in all but BO. This film should do a bit better, making about 20 T5, 12 PTA, and a low 8s IMDB. While 2-3 mid-level films may beat it in some categories, there doesn’t seem to be a sleeper hit on the cards just yet, so play it safe and bet on the big boy.




A safer bet is indeed Cats (Universal). In that it’s safer to avoid it entirely. On paper this should be a massive hit, being an adaptation of the hugely popular stage musical in a time when musicals and music-related films are doing great – just look at the performance of The Greatest Showman. And this is directed by Tom Hooper, the hack… I mean man behind the Les Mis film which earned 442m worldwide. And this one features the talent of Judi Dence, Idris Elba, Ian McKellen, Taylor Swift, and the lack-of-talent of James Corden. But then the trailer came along. We were confused, bemused, and somewhat nauseated. The costumes/make-up and odd staging disgusted more than intrigued. The reviews have been embargoed, and it’s opening against Star Wars. Not a good sign.

The best this film can hope for is that people will go to hate-watch it, and make it into the next The Room, with audiences ironically shouting the bad lines back at the screen, while flinging plastic spoons at it. There is some potential for the film to appeal to an older audience who are immune to the widespread mocking, but it’s unlikely to be the next Greatest Showman. At best expect an opening in the high teens and a decent hold across the holidays, resulting in a $60-70m cume. That’ll result in 4 T5 points, 1 PTA, and probably a pretty awful IMDB score. The pricing ranges from $14-22 across both games, but I've got a bad feline about this.




Predictions for the weekend

1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker - $195m
2. Jumanji: The Next Level - $28m
3. Cats - $18m
4. Frozen 22 - $10m
5. Bombshell - $6m

PTA: Star Wars, Uncut Gems, Jumanji, A Hidden Life, Cats


Next week Screen203 takes a festive glance at awards contenders Little Women, 1917, Just Mercy, The Song of Names, Clemency, as well as animated flick Spies in Disguise.

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Shrykespeare
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/

Post by Shrykespeare »

A bad feline about this.

I see what you did there... :lol:



Celebrity birthdays:

Flo Rida turned 40 on 12/16
Kristy Swanson turned 50 on 12/19
Julie Delpy turned 50 on 12/19
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/

Post by Buscemi2 »

Cats is currently 9% on Rotten Tomatoes and 31 on Metacritic. Universal's going to need audiences to treat it as the cinematic version of The Walking Dead (oddly, Universal has the film rights to that too) if they want to make its money back.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/

Post by Buscemi2 »

Cinemascores:

The Rise of Skywalker: B+ (worst for the official Star Wars entries, if you count it, The Clone Wars pilot film had a lower score of B-)
Cats: C+ (I think we have the flop of the holiday season)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals:

Top 10:
5 points - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, $177.4M
4 points - Jumanji: The Next Level, $26.5M
3 points - Frozen II, $12.8M
2 points - Cats, $6.6M
1 point - Knives Out, $6.1M
Bombshell, $5.1M
Richard Jewell, $2.6M
Queen & Slim, $1.8M
Ford v Ferrari, $1.8M
Black Christmas, $1.8M



PTA:
5 points - A Hidden Life, $49,369
4 points - Uncut Gems, $48,286
3 points - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, $40,260
2 points - Jumanji: The Next Level, $6,270
1 point - Frozen II, $3,494
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/

Post by undeadmonkey »

Im loving my Uncut Gems pickup. hoping it translates to the wide release too

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/

Post by Buscemi2 »

Currently tracking in the mid teens. It wouldn't surprise me to see Uncut Gems become A24's biggest film, even with the dark subject matter.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/

Post by W »

Hidden Life is wrong. Wherever the info came from they didn’t add the extra 101 theaters it got this weekend. Mojo shows $2,328.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/

Post by Shrykespeare »

Whoops. Good catch, W.

In that case:


PTA:
5 points - Uncut Gems, $48,286
4 points - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, $40,260
3 points - Jumanji: The Next Level, $6,270
2 point - Frozen II, $3,541
1 point - Bombshell, $3,452
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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