Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 12/13
Posted: December 11th, 2019, 4:20 pm
On a holdover-driven weekend, Frozen wouldn't let go of the top spot.
Disney's animated behemoth brought in another $35 mil to bring its three weekend total to just over $338 mil. With the generous holiday holds about to start kicking in, there's a pretty strong chance Frozen II goes onto become just the third 2019 film to clear $500 mil at the domestic box office. Maintaining the post-Thanksgiving frame's theme of holdovers staying pat, Knives Out ($14.2 mil), Ford v Ferrari ($6.65 mil) and Queen & Slim ($6.64 mil) continued their solid runs by remaining in second, third and fourth place for a second straight weekend.
The lone wide opener couldn't piggy back off of the varying levels of success the four aforementioned films are currently having. In fact, STX's dump of the poorly-reviewed Lego Movie ripoff Playmobil ended up being one of the worst openings of all time, grossing a comical $656,530 in 2,337 theaters (a PTA of only $280!!!). Even on a weekend that is known for being a depressing dumping ground for new releases, this is an astonishing failure that deserves to live in infamy.
Things went a lot better for the sole limited opener (that reported) as France's Best Foreign Feature contender Portrait of a Lady on Fire averaged a solid $33,672 in 2 theaters. Neon will keep their fingers crossed that this be like Parasite and find an audience outside of NYC/LA once it starts expanding this weekend.
Wide Releases:
The run Jumanjii: Welcome to the Jungle put together two years ago made for one of the most staggering, unexpected breakouts in recent memory. Welcome to the Jungle managed to thrive after the opening of Star Wars: The Last Jedi, riding a wave of miniscule holds to a ridiculous $404.5 mil domestic and $962 mil worldwide finish. So can the follow-up Jumanjii: The Next Level (Sony) build off that success? While the odds are long, it's certainly possible. Welcome to the Jungle was enthusiastically embraced by audiences and the trailers for The Next Level have done a great job of establishing the higher-stakes hook that makes the game harder and sets the stage for a new set of body-swapping shenanigans by adding more recognizable faces (Awkafina, Danny DeVito, Danny Glover) to serve as running mates for the beloved leads (Dwayne Johnson, Kevin Hart, Jack Black, Karen Gillian). The problem is that family-oriented sequels not named Toy Story 4 or Frozen II have all underperformed (The Lego Movie 2, The Secret Life of Pets 2, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil) this year and unlike Welcome to the Jungle, the Next Level is opening before the new Star Wars-which could hurt its legs during the season. A 35-45% dropoff from Welcome to the Jungle's total seems likely.
Prediction: $31-52 mil OW/7-17 Top 5/0-4 PTA/mid 6 to low 7 IMDb/$185-335 mil overall BO
Price (DEC-FEB): $32 ULT/$35 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Yes, but more so in BO.
For the second consecutive year, Clint Eastwood is using the second weekend of December to launch a late entry into the awards race. Richard Jewell (Warner Brothers) tells the “untold” story of the security guard (Paul Walter Hauser) who foiled the attempted bombing at the Atlanta Summer Olympics in 1996, only to become the FBI's prime suspect almost immediately afterward. Per usual, Eastwood has stirred up controversy by making a film about the damage the media can cause by driving false narratives in an era where reporters are under constant attack and having the female journalist (Olivia Wilde) who initially reported the Jewell story trade sex for information from the agent on the case (Jon Hamm).
Regardless of the impact this negative buzz swirling around the trade publications could have (it probably won't have much at all), this likely won't repeat the success of The Mule since Eastwood is only behind the camera this time around and the plight of Jewell isn't quite as spicy as a nearly 90-year old man running drugs for the cartel. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if this legs out to a solid $70+ mil run thanks to Eastwood's gift for mobilizing curmudgeon older audiences to come out to the theater, especially during the holiday season.
Prediction: $10-18 mil OW/2-7 Top 5/0-3 PTA/low to mid 7 IMDb/$45-90 mil overall BO
Price (DEC-FEB): $12 ULT/$12 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Considering Eastwood's involvement and the subject matter, its one of the more appealing mid-priced options available during this stretch.
13 years after Glen Morgan's version that starred Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Katie Cassidy and Michelle Trachtenberg put together a weak run ($16.3 mil domestic/$21.5 mil WW), Blumhouse is producing another remake of the cult favorite slasher flick Black Christmas (Universal). To its credit, the 2019 Black Christmas is at least trying to be different from its predecessors. The plot involves victims of sexual assault/harassment fighting back against their assailants and by earning a PG-13 rating, its the first version of the film to not be aimed at the gorehound set. Will adding a sense of timeliness to the story and broadening the audience make this version pop? Probably not, but if anybody can produce a successful Black Christmas remake against all odds, its Blumhouse.
Prediction: $9-19 mil OW/2-8 Top 5/0-2 PTA/high 4 to low 5 IMDb/$23-65 mil overall BO
Price (DEC-FEB): $9 ULT/$9 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Even if it opens strong, it's not positioned to hold well because of its genre, so probably not.
Limited Releases:
Following its premiere at Telluride, Uncut Gems (A24) instantly became one of the buzziest films on the fall festival circuit. The Safdie Brothers floored critics in the mountains of Colorado by following up their 2017 breakout Good Time with an even scuzzier manic crime saga that has thrust both themselves and star Adam Sandler into the thick of this year's crowded Oscar race. That momentum has only built further as the season as progressed with critics continuing to embrace the film and nominations from several awards shows (Satellite, Critic's Choice, Interdependent Spirit) pouring in over the past few weeks. In a week full of promising limited release options, Uncut Gems seems like it has the best odds of turning into a full blown sensation.
Prediction: $115-260K OW/4-10 PTA/mid to high 7 IMDb/$10-30 mil overall BO
Price (DEC-FEB): $5 ULT/$4 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: (Sandler voice in the trailer) Yes.
A limited opening was a relatively late strategic move for Bombshell (Lionsgate). The biopic about the Fox News sexual harassment scandal that led to the ouster of Rodger Ailes was initially slated to open immediately wide next weekend and to be honest, I'm not 100% sure why Lionsgate made this shift. While Charlize Theron, Margot Robbie and Nicole Kidman are all very much in the mix for acting awards, the movie itself has only received respectable reviews thus far (63% RT, 68 Metascore) and this weekend was already an absolute slaughterhouse on the limited marketplace before it got slated here. This late change in release strategy seems to be just another sign that Bombshell will be a causality of the season that will received a small amount of fanfare on the circuit before fading away into obscurity. A few PTA points seem likely this weekend because of the limited holdover market, but I'm not expecting much of anything positive for the purposes of our game after that.
Prediction: $110-220K OW/1-4 PTA/high 5 to low 6 IMDb/$12-36 mil overall BO
Price (DEC-FEB): $9 ULT/$9 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Unless you believe this is destined to turn into some kind of sleeper hit when it goes wide next week, no.
Terrence Malick has returned from a mini-hiatus following the bumpy production of Song to Song with A Hidden Life (Fox Searchlight). This biopic about Franz Jagerstatter, an Austrian conscious objector that was imprisoned and eventually executed for refusing to swear loyalty to Hitler in 1943, which was filmed three years ago sees the polarizing filmmaker returning to the epic historical drama genre that has brought him a lot of success in the past. Oddly enough, the buzz that came out of Cannes that resulted in Fox Searchlight paying $12-14 mil to acquire the distribution rights doesn't seem to have translated to the masses. Reception has been pretty muted since its premiere in May and even in a year where their slate is considerably slimmer than usual, Fox Searchlight doesn't seem to be giving this much of a push at all. That being said, Mallick remains an auteur with a strong following and the arthouse faithful should come out in droves for what is easily his best reviewed project (75% RT, 73 Metascore) since The Tree of Life-regardless of its lack of traction during gold statue SZN.
Prediction: $88-190K OW/2-8 PTA/mid to high 6 IMDb/$1.5-8 mil overall BO
Price (DEC-FEB): $4 ULT/$2 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Maybe
Landing a date on a weekend that features two awards contenders and a Terrence Malick film is a brutal break for Cunningham (Magnolia). This documentary centered around the life of dancer Merce Cunningham has received enough fanfare (71% RT) to conceivably put together a respectable PTA run in most situations, but in this lion's den, it seems all but confirmed to become the odd movie out on the limited scene. Better luck next time Magnolia.
Prediction: $22-48k OW/0-1 PTA/low to mid 6 IMDb/$46-103k overall BO
Price (DEC-FEB): $2 ULT/$1 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Nope
Weekend Projections:
1.Jumanjii: The Next Level $43 mil
2.Frozen II $23 mil
3.Richard Jewell $16 mil
4.Black Christmas $12 mil
5.Knives Out $10.5 mil
PTA: Uncut Gems, A Hidden Life, Bombshell, Jumanjii, Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Tune in next week when six previews a small, but very prestigious pre-Christmas weekend slate featuring the comedy event of the holiday season and the final chapter of Disney's first Star Wars trilogy.
Disney's animated behemoth brought in another $35 mil to bring its three weekend total to just over $338 mil. With the generous holiday holds about to start kicking in, there's a pretty strong chance Frozen II goes onto become just the third 2019 film to clear $500 mil at the domestic box office. Maintaining the post-Thanksgiving frame's theme of holdovers staying pat, Knives Out ($14.2 mil), Ford v Ferrari ($6.65 mil) and Queen & Slim ($6.64 mil) continued their solid runs by remaining in second, third and fourth place for a second straight weekend.
The lone wide opener couldn't piggy back off of the varying levels of success the four aforementioned films are currently having. In fact, STX's dump of the poorly-reviewed Lego Movie ripoff Playmobil ended up being one of the worst openings of all time, grossing a comical $656,530 in 2,337 theaters (a PTA of only $280!!!). Even on a weekend that is known for being a depressing dumping ground for new releases, this is an astonishing failure that deserves to live in infamy.
Things went a lot better for the sole limited opener (that reported) as France's Best Foreign Feature contender Portrait of a Lady on Fire averaged a solid $33,672 in 2 theaters. Neon will keep their fingers crossed that this be like Parasite and find an audience outside of NYC/LA once it starts expanding this weekend.
Wide Releases:
The run Jumanjii: Welcome to the Jungle put together two years ago made for one of the most staggering, unexpected breakouts in recent memory. Welcome to the Jungle managed to thrive after the opening of Star Wars: The Last Jedi, riding a wave of miniscule holds to a ridiculous $404.5 mil domestic and $962 mil worldwide finish. So can the follow-up Jumanjii: The Next Level (Sony) build off that success? While the odds are long, it's certainly possible. Welcome to the Jungle was enthusiastically embraced by audiences and the trailers for The Next Level have done a great job of establishing the higher-stakes hook that makes the game harder and sets the stage for a new set of body-swapping shenanigans by adding more recognizable faces (Awkafina, Danny DeVito, Danny Glover) to serve as running mates for the beloved leads (Dwayne Johnson, Kevin Hart, Jack Black, Karen Gillian). The problem is that family-oriented sequels not named Toy Story 4 or Frozen II have all underperformed (The Lego Movie 2, The Secret Life of Pets 2, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil) this year and unlike Welcome to the Jungle, the Next Level is opening before the new Star Wars-which could hurt its legs during the season. A 35-45% dropoff from Welcome to the Jungle's total seems likely.
Prediction: $31-52 mil OW/7-17 Top 5/0-4 PTA/mid 6 to low 7 IMDb/$185-335 mil overall BO
Price (DEC-FEB): $32 ULT/$35 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Yes, but more so in BO.
For the second consecutive year, Clint Eastwood is using the second weekend of December to launch a late entry into the awards race. Richard Jewell (Warner Brothers) tells the “untold” story of the security guard (Paul Walter Hauser) who foiled the attempted bombing at the Atlanta Summer Olympics in 1996, only to become the FBI's prime suspect almost immediately afterward. Per usual, Eastwood has stirred up controversy by making a film about the damage the media can cause by driving false narratives in an era where reporters are under constant attack and having the female journalist (Olivia Wilde) who initially reported the Jewell story trade sex for information from the agent on the case (Jon Hamm).
Regardless of the impact this negative buzz swirling around the trade publications could have (it probably won't have much at all), this likely won't repeat the success of The Mule since Eastwood is only behind the camera this time around and the plight of Jewell isn't quite as spicy as a nearly 90-year old man running drugs for the cartel. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if this legs out to a solid $70+ mil run thanks to Eastwood's gift for mobilizing curmudgeon older audiences to come out to the theater, especially during the holiday season.
Prediction: $10-18 mil OW/2-7 Top 5/0-3 PTA/low to mid 7 IMDb/$45-90 mil overall BO
Price (DEC-FEB): $12 ULT/$12 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Considering Eastwood's involvement and the subject matter, its one of the more appealing mid-priced options available during this stretch.
13 years after Glen Morgan's version that starred Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Katie Cassidy and Michelle Trachtenberg put together a weak run ($16.3 mil domestic/$21.5 mil WW), Blumhouse is producing another remake of the cult favorite slasher flick Black Christmas (Universal). To its credit, the 2019 Black Christmas is at least trying to be different from its predecessors. The plot involves victims of sexual assault/harassment fighting back against their assailants and by earning a PG-13 rating, its the first version of the film to not be aimed at the gorehound set. Will adding a sense of timeliness to the story and broadening the audience make this version pop? Probably not, but if anybody can produce a successful Black Christmas remake against all odds, its Blumhouse.
Prediction: $9-19 mil OW/2-8 Top 5/0-2 PTA/high 4 to low 5 IMDb/$23-65 mil overall BO
Price (DEC-FEB): $9 ULT/$9 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Even if it opens strong, it's not positioned to hold well because of its genre, so probably not.
Limited Releases:
Following its premiere at Telluride, Uncut Gems (A24) instantly became one of the buzziest films on the fall festival circuit. The Safdie Brothers floored critics in the mountains of Colorado by following up their 2017 breakout Good Time with an even scuzzier manic crime saga that has thrust both themselves and star Adam Sandler into the thick of this year's crowded Oscar race. That momentum has only built further as the season as progressed with critics continuing to embrace the film and nominations from several awards shows (Satellite, Critic's Choice, Interdependent Spirit) pouring in over the past few weeks. In a week full of promising limited release options, Uncut Gems seems like it has the best odds of turning into a full blown sensation.
Prediction: $115-260K OW/4-10 PTA/mid to high 7 IMDb/$10-30 mil overall BO
Price (DEC-FEB): $5 ULT/$4 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: (Sandler voice in the trailer) Yes.
A limited opening was a relatively late strategic move for Bombshell (Lionsgate). The biopic about the Fox News sexual harassment scandal that led to the ouster of Rodger Ailes was initially slated to open immediately wide next weekend and to be honest, I'm not 100% sure why Lionsgate made this shift. While Charlize Theron, Margot Robbie and Nicole Kidman are all very much in the mix for acting awards, the movie itself has only received respectable reviews thus far (63% RT, 68 Metascore) and this weekend was already an absolute slaughterhouse on the limited marketplace before it got slated here. This late change in release strategy seems to be just another sign that Bombshell will be a causality of the season that will received a small amount of fanfare on the circuit before fading away into obscurity. A few PTA points seem likely this weekend because of the limited holdover market, but I'm not expecting much of anything positive for the purposes of our game after that.
Prediction: $110-220K OW/1-4 PTA/high 5 to low 6 IMDb/$12-36 mil overall BO
Price (DEC-FEB): $9 ULT/$9 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Unless you believe this is destined to turn into some kind of sleeper hit when it goes wide next week, no.
Terrence Malick has returned from a mini-hiatus following the bumpy production of Song to Song with A Hidden Life (Fox Searchlight). This biopic about Franz Jagerstatter, an Austrian conscious objector that was imprisoned and eventually executed for refusing to swear loyalty to Hitler in 1943, which was filmed three years ago sees the polarizing filmmaker returning to the epic historical drama genre that has brought him a lot of success in the past. Oddly enough, the buzz that came out of Cannes that resulted in Fox Searchlight paying $12-14 mil to acquire the distribution rights doesn't seem to have translated to the masses. Reception has been pretty muted since its premiere in May and even in a year where their slate is considerably slimmer than usual, Fox Searchlight doesn't seem to be giving this much of a push at all. That being said, Mallick remains an auteur with a strong following and the arthouse faithful should come out in droves for what is easily his best reviewed project (75% RT, 73 Metascore) since The Tree of Life-regardless of its lack of traction during gold statue SZN.
Prediction: $88-190K OW/2-8 PTA/mid to high 6 IMDb/$1.5-8 mil overall BO
Price (DEC-FEB): $4 ULT/$2 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Maybe
Landing a date on a weekend that features two awards contenders and a Terrence Malick film is a brutal break for Cunningham (Magnolia). This documentary centered around the life of dancer Merce Cunningham has received enough fanfare (71% RT) to conceivably put together a respectable PTA run in most situations, but in this lion's den, it seems all but confirmed to become the odd movie out on the limited scene. Better luck next time Magnolia.
Prediction: $22-48k OW/0-1 PTA/low to mid 6 IMDb/$46-103k overall BO
Price (DEC-FEB): $2 ULT/$1 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Nope
Weekend Projections:
1.Jumanjii: The Next Level $43 mil
2.Frozen II $23 mil
3.Richard Jewell $16 mil
4.Black Christmas $12 mil
5.Knives Out $10.5 mil
PTA: Uncut Gems, A Hidden Life, Bombshell, Jumanjii, Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Tune in next week when six previews a small, but very prestigious pre-Christmas weekend slate featuring the comedy event of the holiday season and the final chapter of Disney's first Star Wars trilogy.