Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 12/13

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 12/13

Post by transformers2 »

On a holdover-driven weekend, Frozen wouldn't let go of the top spot.

Disney's animated behemoth brought in another $35 mil to bring its three weekend total to just over $338 mil. With the generous holiday holds about to start kicking in, there's a pretty strong chance Frozen II goes onto become just the third 2019 film to clear $500 mil at the domestic box office. Maintaining the post-Thanksgiving frame's theme of holdovers staying pat, Knives Out ($14.2 mil), Ford v Ferrari ($6.65 mil) and Queen & Slim ($6.64 mil) continued their solid runs by remaining in second, third and fourth place for a second straight weekend.

The lone wide opener couldn't piggy back off of the varying levels of success the four aforementioned films are currently having. In fact, STX's dump of the poorly-reviewed Lego Movie ripoff Playmobil ended up being one of the worst openings of all time, grossing a comical $656,530 in 2,337 theaters (a PTA of only $280!!!). Even on a weekend that is known for being a depressing dumping ground for new releases, this is an astonishing failure that deserves to live in infamy.

Things went a lot better for the sole limited opener (that reported) as France's Best Foreign Feature contender Portrait of a Lady on Fire averaged a solid $33,672 in 2 theaters. Neon will keep their fingers crossed that this be like Parasite and find an audience outside of NYC/LA once it starts expanding this weekend.

Wide Releases:
The run Jumanjii: Welcome to the Jungle put together two years ago made for one of the most staggering, unexpected breakouts in recent memory. Welcome to the Jungle managed to thrive after the opening of Star Wars: The Last Jedi, riding a wave of miniscule holds to a ridiculous $404.5 mil domestic and $962 mil worldwide finish. So can the follow-up Jumanjii: The Next Level (Sony) build off that success? While the odds are long, it's certainly possible. Welcome to the Jungle was enthusiastically embraced by audiences and the trailers for The Next Level have done a great job of establishing the higher-stakes hook that makes the game harder and sets the stage for a new set of body-swapping shenanigans by adding more recognizable faces (Awkafina, Danny DeVito, Danny Glover) to serve as running mates for the beloved leads (Dwayne Johnson, Kevin Hart, Jack Black, Karen Gillian). The problem is that family-oriented sequels not named Toy Story 4 or Frozen II have all underperformed (The Lego Movie 2, The Secret Life of Pets 2, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil) this year and unlike Welcome to the Jungle, the Next Level is opening before the new Star Wars-which could hurt its legs during the season. A 35-45% dropoff from Welcome to the Jungle's total seems likely.
Prediction: $31-52 mil OW/7-17 Top 5/0-4 PTA/mid 6 to low 7 IMDb/$185-335 mil overall BO
Price (DEC-FEB): $32 ULT/$35 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Yes, but more so in BO.


For the second consecutive year, Clint Eastwood is using the second weekend of December to launch a late entry into the awards race. Richard Jewell (Warner Brothers) tells the “untold” story of the security guard (Paul Walter Hauser) who foiled the attempted bombing at the Atlanta Summer Olympics in 1996, only to become the FBI's prime suspect almost immediately afterward. Per usual, Eastwood has stirred up controversy by making a film about the damage the media can cause by driving false narratives in an era where reporters are under constant attack and having the female journalist (Olivia Wilde) who initially reported the Jewell story trade sex for information from the agent on the case (Jon Hamm).

Regardless of the impact this negative buzz swirling around the trade publications could have (it probably won't have much at all), this likely won't repeat the success of The Mule since Eastwood is only behind the camera this time around and the plight of Jewell isn't quite as spicy as a nearly 90-year old man running drugs for the cartel. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if this legs out to a solid $70+ mil run thanks to Eastwood's gift for mobilizing curmudgeon older audiences to come out to the theater, especially during the holiday season.
Prediction: $10-18 mil OW/2-7 Top 5/0-3 PTA/low to mid 7 IMDb/$45-90 mil overall BO
Price (DEC-FEB): $12 ULT/$12 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Considering Eastwood's involvement and the subject matter, its one of the more appealing mid-priced options available during this stretch.


13 years after Glen Morgan's version that starred Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Katie Cassidy and Michelle Trachtenberg put together a weak run ($16.3 mil domestic/$21.5 mil WW), Blumhouse is producing another remake of the cult favorite slasher flick Black Christmas (Universal). To its credit, the 2019 Black Christmas is at least trying to be different from its predecessors. The plot involves victims of sexual assault/harassment fighting back against their assailants and by earning a PG-13 rating, its the first version of the film to not be aimed at the gorehound set. Will adding a sense of timeliness to the story and broadening the audience make this version pop? Probably not, but if anybody can produce a successful Black Christmas remake against all odds, its Blumhouse.
Prediction: $9-19 mil OW/2-8 Top 5/0-2 PTA/high 4 to low 5 IMDb/$23-65 mil overall BO
Price (DEC-FEB): $9 ULT/$9 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Even if it opens strong, it's not positioned to hold well because of its genre, so probably not.


Limited Releases:
Following its premiere at Telluride, Uncut Gems (A24) instantly became one of the buzziest films on the fall festival circuit. The Safdie Brothers floored critics in the mountains of Colorado by following up their 2017 breakout Good Time with an even scuzzier manic crime saga that has thrust both themselves and star Adam Sandler into the thick of this year's crowded Oscar race. That momentum has only built further as the season as progressed with critics continuing to embrace the film and nominations from several awards shows (Satellite, Critic's Choice, Interdependent Spirit) pouring in over the past few weeks. In a week full of promising limited release options, Uncut Gems seems like it has the best odds of turning into a full blown sensation.
Prediction: $115-260K OW/4-10 PTA/mid to high 7 IMDb/$10-30 mil overall BO
Price (DEC-FEB): $5 ULT/$4 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: (Sandler voice in the trailer) Yes.


A limited opening was a relatively late strategic move for Bombshell (Lionsgate). The biopic about the Fox News sexual harassment scandal that led to the ouster of Rodger Ailes was initially slated to open immediately wide next weekend and to be honest, I'm not 100% sure why Lionsgate made this shift. While Charlize Theron, Margot Robbie and Nicole Kidman are all very much in the mix for acting awards, the movie itself has only received respectable reviews thus far (63% RT, 68 Metascore) and this weekend was already an absolute slaughterhouse on the limited marketplace before it got slated here. This late change in release strategy seems to be just another sign that Bombshell will be a causality of the season that will received a small amount of fanfare on the circuit before fading away into obscurity. A few PTA points seem likely this weekend because of the limited holdover market, but I'm not expecting much of anything positive for the purposes of our game after that.
Prediction: $110-220K OW/1-4 PTA/high 5 to low 6 IMDb/$12-36 mil overall BO
Price (DEC-FEB): $9 ULT/$9 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Unless you believe this is destined to turn into some kind of sleeper hit when it goes wide next week, no.


Terrence Malick has returned from a mini-hiatus following the bumpy production of Song to Song with A Hidden Life (Fox Searchlight). This biopic about Franz Jagerstatter, an Austrian conscious objector that was imprisoned and eventually executed for refusing to swear loyalty to Hitler in 1943, which was filmed three years ago sees the polarizing filmmaker returning to the epic historical drama genre that has brought him a lot of success in the past. Oddly enough, the buzz that came out of Cannes that resulted in Fox Searchlight paying $12-14 mil to acquire the distribution rights doesn't seem to have translated to the masses. Reception has been pretty muted since its premiere in May and even in a year where their slate is considerably slimmer than usual, Fox Searchlight doesn't seem to be giving this much of a push at all. That being said, Mallick remains an auteur with a strong following and the arthouse faithful should come out in droves for what is easily his best reviewed project (75% RT, 73 Metascore) since The Tree of Life-regardless of its lack of traction during gold statue SZN.
Prediction: $88-190K OW/2-8 PTA/mid to high 6 IMDb/$1.5-8 mil overall BO
Price (DEC-FEB): $4 ULT/$2 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Maybe


Landing a date on a weekend that features two awards contenders and a Terrence Malick film is a brutal break for Cunningham (Magnolia). This documentary centered around the life of dancer Merce Cunningham has received enough fanfare (71% RT) to conceivably put together a respectable PTA run in most situations, but in this lion's den, it seems all but confirmed to become the odd movie out on the limited scene. Better luck next time Magnolia.
Prediction: $22-48k OW/0-1 PTA/low to mid 6 IMDb/$46-103k overall BO
Price (DEC-FEB): $2 ULT/$1 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Nope


Weekend Projections:
1.Jumanjii: The Next Level $43 mil
2.Frozen II $23 mil
3.Richard Jewell $16 mil
4.Black Christmas $12 mil
5.Knives Out $10.5 mil

PTA: Uncut Gems, A Hidden Life, Bombshell, Jumanjii, Portrait of a Lady on Fire

Tune in next week when six previews a small, but very prestigious pre-Christmas weekend slate featuring the comedy event of the holiday season and the final chapter of Disney's first Star Wars trilogy.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 12/13

Post by Shrykespeare »

I think Jumanji is going to disappoint. That's just my gut talking. (And I have a big gut...)


Celebrity milestone birthdays:

Bill Nighy turns 70 on 12/12
Christopher Plummer turns 90 on 12/13
Taylor Swift turns 30 on 12/13
Natascha McElhone turns 50 on 12/14
Don Johnson turns 70 on 12/15
Adam Brody turns 40 on 12/15

Interesting that both Plummer and Johnson were in Knives Out...
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 12/13

Post by Buscemi2 »

Jumanji: The Next Level doesn't have the 90's nostalgia buzz that the last one had. And it's interesting that Sony isn't publicizing DeVito, Glover, or Awkwafina's roles.

Personally, I think they should have just remade Zathura as Sony's way of saying, "See, we didn't forget the actual sequel of Jumanji. You know, the one directed by the guy who did the biggest movie so far this year.".
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 12/13

Post by Buscemi2 »

Too early numbers (via Deadline):

Jumanji $17.5-18 million Friday/$46-50 million weekend
Richard Jewell $1.8-2 million Friday/$6 million weekend
Black Christmas $2 million Friday/$5.3 million weekend
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 12/13

Post by Buscemi2 »

Since Sony's doing their usual "wait a few days" release for Jumanji's Cinemascore, here are the other scores.

Richard Jewell: A (on par for Eastwood, slightly better than his last one's A-)
Black Christmas: D+ (I have to wonder how much is it being a bad movie and how much is men's rights people ganging up on the film, have the opening night demographics been posted?)
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 12/13

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Jumanji, $19.4M
Frozen II, $4.4M
Knives Out, $2.6M
Richard Jewell, $1.5M
Ford v Ferrari, $1.2M



Weekend Projections:

Jumanji, $55M
Frozen II, $19.6M
Knives Out, $9.3M
Richard Jewell, $5.2M
Black Christmas, $4.4M
Ford v Ferrari, $4.2M
Queen & Slim, $3.5M
A Beautiful Day, $3.4M
Dark Waters, $1.9M
21 Bridges, $1.2M


PTA:
Uncut Gems, $120K
Bombshell, $97K
Jumanji, $13K
A Hidden Life, $10K
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 12/13

Post by Buscemi2 »

Damn, Disney basically buried A Hidden Life. Did it need a funny Nazi for them to even make an attempt at promoting it?
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 12/13

Post by Chienfantome »

I'm shocked by Hidden Life's numbers. Not what I expected at all !
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 12/13

Post by W »

Buscemi2 wrote:Damn, Disney basically buried A Hidden Life. Did it need a funny Nazi for them to even make an attempt at promoting it?
Hidden Life was one of my most viewed trailers in the theater in the past few months. People that go to indie films even semi-regularly definitely have seen a trailer for it, but the trailer shows very little and creates very little interest. I assume the five theaters it played in were NY/LA like normal. I saw a billion times more Hidden Life trailers than Knight of Cups and Knight of Cups did better. I don't see how it was buried at all.

It could be Malick.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 12/13

Post by Buscemi2 »

You're forgetting that Disney has way more money than Broad Green ever did. Fox spent millions on the film before the Disney merger was finalized. But Disney decided to put all its focus on Jojo Rabbit because of the Toronto win. A Hidden Life feels like a straight-up dump by Disney as we typically see with studios when they get someone else's movies (and I have a feeling Jojo Rabbit would have too had it not won awards).

In addition, A Hidden Life's Oscar campaign has been non-existent. The film got better reviews than Jojo Rabbit but the latter's been getting all of the campaign money. In the past, a film like this would have gotten a big publicity campaign. But I guess Disney had to go for the shock value and the whole selling point of "Hey, we made a movie where Hitler's depicted as misunderstood" because the director/star made a movie for Marvel.

Lucy in the Sky got treated better by Disney and that got some of the year's worst reception, both critically and financially. Funny how that film also has a Marvel connection.

As for Malick, it's unfair to call him box office poison because of his newer films. The Tree of Life made $13 million in the US in less than 250 theatres. This film was just as long-awaited, with years of post-production and a return to the epic scale he's been known for in the past. Also, that film made a splash at Cannes like A Hidden Life did.

Lastly, that's just AMC and their need to run 8-9 trailers before every movie. A lot of trailers are going to show up again and again.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 12/13

Post by Screen203 »

I think what did Hidden Life in was the competition. Fox/Disney couldn't have expected that two films looking at around 100k would open on the same date.

My feelings about him notwithstanding, Malick definitely has fans, and Searchlight wouldn't have paid 14 million for the film if it was as non-commercial as it's numbers have shown.

Honestly, I think it should have been released in the summer - it would be a very fast turnaround, but the independent market was so weak for the first half of the year that it could be marketed as an event.
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