Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/15

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/15

Post by transformers2 »

Middling new releases flooded the box office and fittingly on a Veteran's Day Weekend, the war film came out on top.

Roland Emmerich's salute to the unsung heroes of the Battle of Midway finished slightly ahead of expectations with a solid $17.9 mil. A leggy run akin to what fellow Lionsgate-produced WWII flick Hacksaw Ridge ($15.2 mi OW/$67.1 mil total) put together in 2016 seems unlikely given the plethora of other titles aimed at adult males that are about to hit theaters starting with this weekend's Ford v. Ferrari, but it should prove to be a decent earner by the time it wraps up its run.

Despite finishing in second place, Warner Brothers' Doctor Sleep ($14.1 mil) was far and away the biggest loser of the weekend. Tracking was as high as $30 mil and the reception has been pretty warm by all accounts, but the interest in The Shining sequel just wasn't there on a wide scale. Although Doctor Sleep's estimated losses ($30 mil) are modest compared to Godzilla: King of the Monsters and The Goldfinch, this is yet another head-scratching financial misfire for a studio that has taken a lot of licks in 2019.

Rounding out the newcomers were family fart comedy Playing with Fire and holiday romcom Last Christmas , both of which especially embraced the weekend's spirit of shoulder shrug-inducing indifference by posting debuts in the low teens ($12.7 and $11.4 mil respectively). Despite belonging to genres that tend to hold well, neither title seems like its going to play past Thanksgiving.

The lone exception to this wall-to-wall mediocrity was the limited opening of Honey Boy. Shia LaBeouf's largely autobiographical film about his start in the industry and the eventual legal troubles that stemmed from his unusual upbringing brought in a stellar $75,266 per theater. Honey Boy isn't going wide until December 6th, so there's a great chance that this hot start operates as a springboard for a long run of PTA dominance.

Wide Releases:
There's two big questions that are still surrounding Ford v. Ferrari (Fox) on the eve of its opening: Can it become the first film to clear $100 mil domestic since the release of Joker and Will it become the first title from the previous Fox regime that generates success for Disney? The answers aren't cut and dry.

The pedigree for this biopic about Ford's mission to end Ferrari's reign of dominance at the Le Mans Grand Prix is exceptional with James Mangold (Logan, Walk the Line) at the helm and Matt Damon and Christian Bale heading up the ensemble cast. Disney's marketing has also been dramatically better than any of the other Fox titles they've handled thus far, which probably isn't a coincidence since this is a well-reviewed prestige pic that has a chance of bringing them the gold statues that have largely alluded them over the years. However, car racing movies that don't involve the impervious Dom Toretto aren't exactly guaranteed to be home runs at the box office with 2013's Rush being an excellent example of a film that fell on its face despite earning critical praise and while the reviews have been very good (90 RT%, 76 Metascore), its failed to achieve the level of buzz that was expected before the fall festival circuit opened up. The daunting 152-minute runtime could also limit its potential. Ultimately, I think Bale, Damon and how much love it receives on the awards circuit will determine the muddy fate of Ford v. Ferrari.
Prediction: $19-35 mil OW/4-11 Top 5/1-4 PTA/low to mid 7 IMDb/$60-120 mil overall BO
Price (NOV-JAN): $17 ULT/$18 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Leaning towards yes


17 years after the last iteration came to a close, Charlie's Angels (Sony) is next up in the puzzling reboot machine. Technically speaking, it's actually not a remake since it refers to events from the original TV series as well as the McG-directed films that helped many people from my generation realize that they were attracted to women, but alas its still a revival in spirit. The overhauled titular team of globe-trotting spies are played by Kristen Stewart. Naomi Scott and newcomer Ella Balinska, the big baddie is played by Sam Claflin and in a fun twist, there's several Bosleys including Patrick Stewart, Djimon Honsou and Elizabeth Banks-who also wrote and directed.

The pop Scott received from Aladdin paired with the aggression in which pop superstar Ariana Grande, who executive produced and performs on the soundtrack, has pushed the movie give it a sliver of breakout potential, but I doubt that will be enough to bring prosperity to the 2019 Angels. The lack of enthusiasm for this girl power actioner has been palpable since the first trailer dropped in June (even the men's rights trolls have been pretty quiet on this one). Its done little-to-nothing to distinguish itself from past iterations and the only slightly above average early reviews (63 RT%, 53 Metascore) aren't likely to provide it with the juice it desperately it needs to generate some buzz, which should result this being in a failed attempt to revitalize this brand for the modern era.
Prediction: $9-19 mil OW/2-8 Top 5/0-2 PTA/high 4 to low 5 IMDb/$23-65 mil overall BO
Price (NOV-JAN): $16 ULT/$16 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: It's about as volatile as a mid-priced title can be, making it a very unappealing pick for our game.


Dame Helen Mirren and Sir Ian McKellan are getting down and dirty in The Good Liar (Warner Brothers). The film focuses on a career con artist (McKellan) with a mysterious past who tries to take advantage of a wealthy widow (Mirren). Things go awry when the widow isn't as helpless as she appears and soon the life this con artist has worked so hard to stitch together starts to rapidly fall apart. Twisty R-rated thrillers aren't usually aimed at the older adult crowd, so this will be an interesting case study to see if that demographic will respond to dark, violent fare.
Prediction: $5-13 mil OW/0-5 Top 5/0-3 PTA/mid to high 6 IMDb/$17-42 mil overall BO
Price (NOV-JAN): $6 ULT/$6 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Toss-up. Its cheap as hell and Mirren and McKellan are actors that can bring in older audiences, but it could easily end up getting lost in the cluster of adult-aimed releases set to come out over the next few weeks.


Limited Releases:
Grounded family drama Waves (A24), the latest from indie helmer Trey Edwards Shults (It Comes at Night, Krisha), has an absolutely pristine specialty blueprint. It received some of the best reviews of any film to play at Telluride or Toronto this year, the cast is loaded with buzzed-about actors (Sterling K. Brown, Kelvin Harrison Jr., Lucas Hedges, Taylor Russell, Alexa Demie) and of course, it's being distributed by the most beloved indie studio on the planet. It would be a shock if Waves didn't have a huge opening in NYC/LA this weekend and go down as one of the finest PTA picks of this season.
Prediction: $225-350K OW/5-11 PTA/low to mid 7 IMDb/$2-6 mil overall BO
Price (NOV-JAN): $4 ULT/$2 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Confident yes in Ultimate, blah in Box Office.


After the very successful run of The Peanut Butter Falcon this summer, The Warrior Queen of Jhansi (Roadside) represents a return to infuriating non-starter form for Roadside Attractions. The period biopic about Rani of Jhansi, an Indian queen who successfully led a rebellion against the British in 1857, is receiving the patented semi-wide release that every film the studio doesn't have total confidence in gets saddled with. Reviews likely won't be very good and the TBD (likely) triple digit theater count makes it absolutely useless in both formats of our game.
Prediction: $88-242K OW/0-3 PTA/mid to high 6 IMDb/$750k-2 mil overall BO
Price (NOV-JAN): $2 ULT/$1 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Nope


Weekend Predictions:
1.Ford v Ferrari $27 mil
2.Charlie's Angels $14 mil
3.Midway $11 mil
4.The Good Liar $10 mil
5.Playing with Fire $8 mil

PTA: Waves, Honey Boy, Ford v. Ferrari, The Good Liar, Midway

Tune in next week when Walleye previews a biopic about a man that managed to be a perpetual beacon of light in this wretched world, the long-awaited sequel to a film that has been terrorizing at least 95% of all parents with small children over the past six years, T'Challa's showdown with some lethal NYC bank robbers and Bruce Banner's legal showdown with one of the most powerful corporations in the world.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/15

Post by JohnErle »

I know this won't affect the game since it won't report, but every Vancouver screening of The Irishman is already sold out this weekend, so it looks like it would have been a PTA behemoth if Netflix played by the same rules as everyone else.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/15

Post by Screen203 »

I could see Charlie's Angels being a mini-breakout, actually. The trailers haven't been bad, and I would think the Ariana Grande soundtrack would help increase buzz among the target audience (which hasn't had a film aimed at them since Countdown, and besides Frozen won't have any other options until Black Christmas). It's also the most "fun" film out right now, which could serve as counterprogramming to the darker films taking space right now.

I think the film looks like fun, personally, but I'm one of the few who likes these glossy Sony remake/reboot films (though Men In Black looked terrible, but I've never been a fan of that franchise anyway) - the mix of sleek, modern color schemes/set designs (though they do come of as very commercial in nature, as the overly-clean design is almost reminiscent of an indoor mall or even a hospital in how polished it is, seemingly soaked in Clorox), and brazenly progressive politics sets their films apart from the glut of remakes/reboots/sequels Hollywood has descended into.

Don't know what to think of the other openers, though they should have strong legs considering their older target audience.

Another thing to note is that (while it was released last week), the gross for Honey Boy was very friday-frontloaded, which usually indicates niche appeal or mixed reception from audiences, so I don't see it being a PTA juggernaut for long (especially with Waves and Dark Waters coming up).

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/15

Post by Buscemi2 »

I've seen almost no marketing for The Good Liar. It wouldn't be a surprise if it flopped like The Goldfinch did.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/15

Post by Shrykespeare »

I've seen quite a few commercials for The Good Liar in the last week. I think it'll do okay.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/15

Post by Buscemi2 »

Too early numbers (via Deadline) have jingoism winning again.

Ford v. Ferrari $10 million Friday/$28 million weekend
Charlie's Angels $4 million Friday/$10.5 million weekend (by comparison, Charlie's Angels 2000 made $13.4 million on opening day)
The Good Liar $1.2 million Friday/$3.8 million weekend
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/15

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater counts:

Ford v Ferrari - 3,528
Charlie's Angels - 3,452
The Good Liar - 2,439



Celebrity birthdays:

Cote de Pablo turned 40 on 11/12
Gerard Butler turned 50 on 11/13
Olga Kurylenko turned 40 on 11/14
Edward Asner turned 90 on 11/15
Yaphet Kotto turned 80 on 11/15
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/15

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday estimates

Ford v Ferrari, $10.9M
Charlie's Angels, $3.1M
Midway, $2.5M
Last Christmas, $2.0M
Playing With Fire, $1.9M
Doctor Sleep, $1.7M
The Good Liar, $1.6M
Joker, $1.5M
Harriet, $1.2M
Maleficent, $1.2M
Terminator: $1.1M



Weekend Projections

Ford v Ferrari, $30.5M
Midway, $9.3M
Playing With Fire, $8.0M
Charlie's Angels, $8.0M
Last Christmas, $7.5M
Doctor Sleep, $6.0M
Joker, $5.4M
The Good Liar, $5.2M
Maleficent, $5.1M
Harriet, $4.3M
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/15

Post by transformers2 »

What a depressing OW for Charlie's Angels.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/15

Post by W »

transformers2 wrote:What a depressing OW for Charlie's Angels.
4.4 IMDb is even worse.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/15

Post by Buscemi2 »

I have a feeling men's rights people are downvoting Charlie's Angels. The 51 Metacritic score seems to be a better indicator of quality.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/15

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Ford v Ferrari, $31.0M
4 points - Midway, $8.7M
3 points - Charlie's Angels, $8.6M
2 points - Playing With Fire, $8.5M
1 point - Last Christmas, $6.7M
Doctor Sleep, $6.2M
The Good Liar, $5.7M
Joker, $5.6M
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, $5.2M
Harriet, $4.8M




PTA:
5 points - Waves, $36K
4 points - Honey Boy, $12.4K
3 points - Ford v Ferrari, $8.8K
2 points - Parasite, $3.1K
1 point - Jojo Rabbit, $2.8K
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/15

Post by Chienfantome »

Nice to see a film like Ford vs Ferrari doing such good numbers at the BO.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/15

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Ford v Ferrari, $31.4M (5)
4 points - Midway, $8.5M (9)
3 points - Charlie's Angels, $8.4M (3)
2 points - Playing With Fire, $8.3M (5)
1 point - Last Christmas, $6.5M (3)
Doctor Sleep, $6.0M
The Good Liar, $5.6M
Joker, $5.3M
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, $4.9M
Harriet, $4.6M




PTA:
5 points - Waves, $33,583 (5)
4 points - Honey Boy, $11,957 (9)
3 points - Ford v Ferrari, $8,921 (3)
2 points - Parasite, $3,002 (18)
1 point - Jojo Rabbit, $2,774 (19)


What PTA juggernauts Parasite and Jojo Rabbit turned out to be!
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/15

Post by Screen203 »

Chienfantome wrote:Nice to see a film like Ford vs Ferrari doing such good numbers at the BO.
Wouldn't suprise me to see it develop strong legs too. The audience I saw it with yesterday really seemed to enjoy it (I was suprised that audienceshaven't had an issue with Ken's death after the race, especially since the film ends with the final scene with Shelby, Molly, and Ken's son ending an otherwise crowdpleasing film on a down note).
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