SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 11/8
Posted: November 6th, 2019, 5:36 am
Halloween weekend traditionally delivers some shocks, usually in the form of throwaway horror flicks. Last weekend it came in the form of a beloved franchise, directed by a man responsible for the most successful X-Men film in the franchise, approved by the most successful director of all time, starring its long-missed star, and it could barely beat the one with a bad Game of Thrones actress (we’ll get to her in a bit) and a plot that made no sense whatsoever. Terminator: Dark Fate was a bloodbath, but financially rather than in content. RIP. The good surprise came from abolitionist biopic Harriet, which may have fought its way to some awards attention. Will this week, with 4 wide releases clawing at each other, deliver the good scares or the bad ones?
Looks like the time-change skipped an entire week this time, with Doctor Sleep (Warner Bros) coming out on the traditionally terrifying weekend AFTER Halloween. I guess it is scary, if you think about how much chocolate you’ve probably taken off the kids and chomped on. This horror is a sequel to the iconic Kubrick chiller The Shining, and avoids the expected outrage by also being an adaptation of Stephen King’s novel of the same name. Here, little Danny Torrence is all grown up, subduing his psychic abilities through alcoholism, until another “talented” girl is threatened by a group of dangerous folk who dine on those who shine. Mike Flanagan (Oculus, Gerald’s Game, and about 5 more films since you started reading this article) writes and directs, with Ewan McGregor playing the lead, and Rebecca Fergusson as the hat-donning leader of the gang.
King adaptations are being flung into the green light since the surprise success of It: Chapter One and, to a lesser extent, its sequel. And The Shining must be one of the most beloved box office bombs of all time, making the sequel curious to even the haters. Reviews have been good (but not great), but WOM seems positive, if Rotten Tomatoes Audience Score and IMDB are indicators. This film should at least play better than the disappointing Pet Sematary, but probably not as much as It: Chapter Two. In the UK, for example, the film only opened in 5th place. A US opening in the high 20s seems about right, with a cume in the 70s. An IMDB score in the 7s is expected, along with 8 T5 points and 4 PTA points. For $17 or $20 in BO, it doesn’t quite feel worth it, unless you’re expecting an upset and an opening in the high 30s. However, it’s definitely tempting in Ultimate, ($17-19) as it delivers on all categories.
20 years ago, Midway (Lionsgate) would have been a must-have in this game. It’s a classic-style war film, set around the Battle of Midway, a decisive bout between the US and the Japanese during the Pacific War. And directed by the man behind Stargate and Independence Day. Sadly, someone in Lionsgate dusted this off and dropped it into a crowded weekend in a crowded season. It should still deliver some old-school (they’re even too old for skool) thrills and open in the mid-teens but flounder in the mid 40s, at best. There’s a small chance this may surprise, but I’m not convinced. That’s just not worth it in either league. Midway? More like Mid-level.
A more exciting option is Last Christmas, courtesy of Universal. It’s a rom com directed by Paul Feig (Bridesmaids, The Heat, A Simple Favour), and stars Emilia Clarke as a disgruntled Londoner who finds love and, presumably, George Michael music during the festive season. Now, while Ms Clarke is somewhat limited when she’s not a haughty dragon moma with no sense of character logic, she does have fans and has plenty of natural charm, which should work wonders for an American attempt at Love-Actually-meets-The-Holiday. Considering the early release date, expect a modest opening but a good hold as the Xmas lurks up on us. It may perform under Midway this weekend but expect it to earn more in the long run. I expect 5-6 T5 points, 1-2 PTA points, a cume of $60m or so, and a 6 score in IMDB. So save yourself some tears and give your something specials to this.
Finally, there’s Playing With Fire (Paramount), an inappropriately-timed family film. It deals with a group of fire-fighters who rescue and have to deal with a bunch on unruly kids. Many a hair will be hilariously singed, and many an extinguisher will be set off. John Cena, Keegan-Michael Key, and John Leguizamo star. This flick may have filled some family gap elsewhere, but are they really going to give a damn about this with Frozen 2 looming over it? Plus, nobody in California is going to go near this film. Expect a sub 10m opening and it will fizzle out below 30m. That’s not worth it in BO, and in Ultimate you’re going to get very little spark. Quench it.
On the limited front there’s only one contender, Honey Boy (Amazon), but what a contender. Based on Shia LaBeouf’s own childhood relationship with his father, this is a tender drama about a young actor in his formative years and during his later failures as he battles with his vices. Alma Harel directs her debut fiction feature, and it not only received rave reviews, but picked up a jury award at Sundance. With October’s prestige pics fading away, this will pick up plenty of PTA points (7-10), making it a sweet, sweet pick in Ultimate, where it’s 4 bucks. However, considering Amazon’s release strategies don’t expect this to cross the $5m mark.
Predictions for the weekend
1. Doctor Sleep- $28m
2. Midway - $17m
3. Last Christmas - $15m
4. Terminator: Dark Fate - $14m
5. Playing with Fire - $10m
PTA: Honey Boy, Doctor Sleep, Jojo Rabbit, Midway, Harriet
Next week catch Tranny’s take on another Charlie’s Angels reboot, another racing car drama, another Ian-McKellan-is-a-murderous-octogenarian flick, another weird-genre-bending-A24 indie, and The Warrior Queen of Jhansi.
Looks like the time-change skipped an entire week this time, with Doctor Sleep (Warner Bros) coming out on the traditionally terrifying weekend AFTER Halloween. I guess it is scary, if you think about how much chocolate you’ve probably taken off the kids and chomped on. This horror is a sequel to the iconic Kubrick chiller The Shining, and avoids the expected outrage by also being an adaptation of Stephen King’s novel of the same name. Here, little Danny Torrence is all grown up, subduing his psychic abilities through alcoholism, until another “talented” girl is threatened by a group of dangerous folk who dine on those who shine. Mike Flanagan (Oculus, Gerald’s Game, and about 5 more films since you started reading this article) writes and directs, with Ewan McGregor playing the lead, and Rebecca Fergusson as the hat-donning leader of the gang.
King adaptations are being flung into the green light since the surprise success of It: Chapter One and, to a lesser extent, its sequel. And The Shining must be one of the most beloved box office bombs of all time, making the sequel curious to even the haters. Reviews have been good (but not great), but WOM seems positive, if Rotten Tomatoes Audience Score and IMDB are indicators. This film should at least play better than the disappointing Pet Sematary, but probably not as much as It: Chapter Two. In the UK, for example, the film only opened in 5th place. A US opening in the high 20s seems about right, with a cume in the 70s. An IMDB score in the 7s is expected, along with 8 T5 points and 4 PTA points. For $17 or $20 in BO, it doesn’t quite feel worth it, unless you’re expecting an upset and an opening in the high 30s. However, it’s definitely tempting in Ultimate, ($17-19) as it delivers on all categories.
20 years ago, Midway (Lionsgate) would have been a must-have in this game. It’s a classic-style war film, set around the Battle of Midway, a decisive bout between the US and the Japanese during the Pacific War. And directed by the man behind Stargate and Independence Day. Sadly, someone in Lionsgate dusted this off and dropped it into a crowded weekend in a crowded season. It should still deliver some old-school (they’re even too old for skool) thrills and open in the mid-teens but flounder in the mid 40s, at best. There’s a small chance this may surprise, but I’m not convinced. That’s just not worth it in either league. Midway? More like Mid-level.
A more exciting option is Last Christmas, courtesy of Universal. It’s a rom com directed by Paul Feig (Bridesmaids, The Heat, A Simple Favour), and stars Emilia Clarke as a disgruntled Londoner who finds love and, presumably, George Michael music during the festive season. Now, while Ms Clarke is somewhat limited when she’s not a haughty dragon moma with no sense of character logic, she does have fans and has plenty of natural charm, which should work wonders for an American attempt at Love-Actually-meets-The-Holiday. Considering the early release date, expect a modest opening but a good hold as the Xmas lurks up on us. It may perform under Midway this weekend but expect it to earn more in the long run. I expect 5-6 T5 points, 1-2 PTA points, a cume of $60m or so, and a 6 score in IMDB. So save yourself some tears and give your something specials to this.
Finally, there’s Playing With Fire (Paramount), an inappropriately-timed family film. It deals with a group of fire-fighters who rescue and have to deal with a bunch on unruly kids. Many a hair will be hilariously singed, and many an extinguisher will be set off. John Cena, Keegan-Michael Key, and John Leguizamo star. This flick may have filled some family gap elsewhere, but are they really going to give a damn about this with Frozen 2 looming over it? Plus, nobody in California is going to go near this film. Expect a sub 10m opening and it will fizzle out below 30m. That’s not worth it in BO, and in Ultimate you’re going to get very little spark. Quench it.
On the limited front there’s only one contender, Honey Boy (Amazon), but what a contender. Based on Shia LaBeouf’s own childhood relationship with his father, this is a tender drama about a young actor in his formative years and during his later failures as he battles with his vices. Alma Harel directs her debut fiction feature, and it not only received rave reviews, but picked up a jury award at Sundance. With October’s prestige pics fading away, this will pick up plenty of PTA points (7-10), making it a sweet, sweet pick in Ultimate, where it’s 4 bucks. However, considering Amazon’s release strategies don’t expect this to cross the $5m mark.
Predictions for the weekend
1. Doctor Sleep- $28m
2. Midway - $17m
3. Last Christmas - $15m
4. Terminator: Dark Fate - $14m
5. Playing with Fire - $10m
PTA: Honey Boy, Doctor Sleep, Jojo Rabbit, Midway, Harriet
Next week catch Tranny’s take on another Charlie’s Angels reboot, another racing car drama, another Ian-McKellan-is-a-murderous-octogenarian flick, another weird-genre-bending-A24 indie, and The Warrior Queen of Jhansi.