Spectre's Spooky Selections - Halloween Edition (10/25)

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Spectre
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Spectre's Spooky Selections - Halloween Edition (10/25)

Post by Spectre »

Happy Halloween everyone! We've come to the end of October which means the final weekend of the Halloween season is upon us. As usual for one of the lowest grossing weekends on the calendar every year, we're being treated to a mediocre horror movie and some frighteningly bad alternatives. You're most likely not playing anything this weekend but you're here anyway so let's get this horror show started!

Up first is Countdown from STX. I own this thing in the full-year draft so I don't want to badmouth it too much but... ugh. It's a modern take on the "know the date of your death" gimmick involving an app, starring a bunch of nobodies and directed by a guy who's done nothing but shorts in his career. Oh, and jump scares. All the jump scares. If I haven't sold you on it yet, it's getting critically panned as well. Woohoo! But hey, there's a reason it's getting released this weekend as there's a robust market for crappy horror in the week leading up to Halloween so maybe it can make a few bucks before fizzling out?



Man, even the thumbnail for the trailer sucks...

Latest Game Pricing: $7 ULT | $7 BO
Prediction: $8M OW | $20M Domestic | 0-1 Top 5 | 0-1 PTA | High 4-Low 5 IMDb
The Last Word: If you want to horrify yourself this Halloween, put this on your slate. There's always a tiny chance that horror breaks out but even if it pops this weekend, it'll have no legs once Halloween passes. And it's more likely to bust than to break out given the holdover competition. So let's see... bad box office take, low IMDb rating and little/no chance at real Top 5/PTA points. R.I.P.

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When that's the first film to get covered this weekend, you know we're in for a real doozy. Up next is Black and Blue from master of mediocrity Deon Taylor which follows Naomie Harris as a rookie cop in New Orleans who witnesses other cops (probably Tyrese based on the poster) committing murder amidst racial tension. I'd tell you more but I'm not going to lie, that description was so underwhelming that I didn't watch the trailer for this one... but you can right now!



Latest Game Pricing: $7 ULT | $6 BO
Prediction: $7M OW | $19M Domestic | 0-1 Top 5 | 0-1 PTA | Mid 4-Low 5 IMDb
The Last Word: If you're not beating out Countdown, the prospects are grim to say the least. And at a 2k theater count, Sony probably agrees. The holdovers are so strong that there's a legitimate chance it puts up straight 0s and even if it doesn't, the domestic take and low IMDb will torpedo your slate. Bury this thing in Saint Louis Cemetery #1 and don't give it another thought.

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If you're not asleep after those first two blockbusters, kudos to you! It's only getting worse from here. Up next is the long awaited (by no one) theatrical release of the final Weinstein production, blue light special, and waste of a great cast, The Current War: Director's Cut starring Benedict Cumberbatch as Thomas Edison. Yes, for all of you who saw the original cut at TIFF two years ago and said that it sucked, 101 Studios is here to change your mind and let you know that it's now worthy of your dollars! You might be asking yourself why on earth they would put Director's Cut in the title as though anyone in the general public remembers the initial TIFF reaction. You might also be asking yourself who the hell 101 Studios is. These are good questions. I have no answers.



Thumbnail Michael Shannon looks confused as well.

Latest Game Pricing: $4 ULT | $2 BO
Prediction: $3.5M OW | $8M Domestic | 0 Top 5 | 0 PTA | 6.3 IMDb
The Final Word: As is crappy distributor tradition, this one is getting around 1,000 theaters this weekend which is too high to generate PTA points and too low to generate Top 5s. But hey, the IMDb rating is pretty much baked at this point so that's something! Seriously, don't touch this in Ult. Given the dirt cheap box office pricing, you could probably use it to burn a couple leftover dollars but you're probably better off giving this zombie film a double tap and sending it back to its grave.

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This is the point in the column where I begin to wonder why I signed up for a weekend of unplayable movies. This is the point in the column where you begin to wonder why you're reading about a weekend of unplayable movies. Oh! Speaking of which, we're onto Western Stars, a cinematic version of Bruce Springsteen's latest album. Now, to be fair, this actually looks like it'll be pretty good and I had some hope for it as a PTA play but it's getting the theater count kiss of death at around 500. I know Bruce has some star power but I don't know that he has enough to generate any PTA off of that kind of a release.



Latest Game Pricing: $4 ULT | $2 BO
Prediction: $2M OW | $7M Domestic | 0 Top 5 | 0 PTA | low 7 IMDb
The Last Word: Womp womp. Again, it looks like it's pretty good so I'd expect a solid IMDb score out of it but other than that, unless it's getting some weird expansion that I don't see coming, that's probably all you're going to get out of it unless you need to burn $2 in box office. This one is all trick and no treat.

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We did it! We made it to the last film! You're probably not nearly as excited as I am but try to live vicariously through me a little here. Closing out, we have Frankie, an American-French drama starring Isabelle Huppert as the matriarch of a family on a life-changing vacation. It went to Cannes and got nominated for a Palme d'Or despite mediocre reviews overall. It's being distributed by Sony Pictures Classics stateside and although the newly mutilated Box Office Mojo (sigh) doesn't have theater counts anymore, it seems to be opening in NY/LA. Wait... Cannes debut... legit PTA distributor... small opening... do we have a playable film this week?!



Latest Game Pricing: $3 ULT | $1 BO
Prediction: $0M OW | $1M Domestic | 0 Top 5 | 2-6 PTA | Mid 5-Low 6 IMDb
The Last Word: Sorry for getting all excited back there. I mean... I won't play it but when you've been reviewing turds all column long, a hot dog looks like filet mignon. The issue here is that there are not one, not two, but three powerhouse limited holdovers (Jojo Rabbit, The Lighthouse, Parasite). The Lighthouse is expanding to 586 theaters which might bump it below this but Jojo is only moving into 55 theaters and Parasite is coming in at around 100. It'll be tough to land at the top of the list.

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Top 5 projection: Joker, Malificent: Mistress of Evil, Zombieland 2: Double Tap, The Addams Family, Countdown

PTA projection: Jojo Rabbit, Parasite, Frankie, The Lighthouse, Black and Blue

tl;dr - You'd enjoy McKamey Manor more than playing any of these films.

It's over... it's done... I feel like I just survived a Jigsaw trap... yet there were no lessons learned aside from realizing that I need to be more selective in choosing which weeks I write these. And I'm also now missing a foot. But hey, it's almost Halloween and it's my favorite time of year so I've got that going for me which is nice! Next week isn't much of a knockout either but Walleye will get to look at the latest attempt at a not-terrible Terminator 3, Ed Norton's impending bomb, some horrendous animation and possibly our first taste of awards bait this year. Until next time, stay spooky my friends!

EDIT: Switched a couple things up as more theater counts are coming in.

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Re: Spectre's Spooky Selections - Halloween Edition (10/25)

Post by Shrykespeare »

Great column, Spectre. Thanks for taking the hail of bullets for the rest of us this week. You'll be rewarded in the next life. Or perhaps in the next season.

Ahem.


BOM has gotten a facelift. It looks like it's now part of IMDb Pro... except it's free. DO NOT LIKE IT so far.

Well... theater counts were supposed to be finalized yesterday. But they're not even showing what they are now. Do I have to PAY to get this info now? BOO!



Moving on.


Celebrity birthdays:

Ken Watananbe turned 60 on 10/21
Spike Jonze turned 50 on 10/22
Sam Raimi turned 60 on 10/23
Weird Al Yankovic turned 60 on 10/23
F. Murray Abraham turned 80 on 10/24
Mia Wasikowska turned 30 on 10/25
John Cleese turns 80 on 10/27
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Spectre
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Re: Spectre's Spooky Selections - Halloween Edition (10/25)

Post by Spectre »

Thanks Shryke! It looks like the-numbers has tried to pick up the theater counts this week (and they have all the wide releases) but their limited theater counts are... limited.

I really hope IMDb restores the old BoM capabilities. Plenty of people are complaining already. The new look/functionality stinks.

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Re: Spectre's Spooky Selections - Halloween Edition (10/25)

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Spectre wrote:Plenty of people are complaining already. The new look/functionality stinks.
Is this a fact, or wishful thinking? And yes, it does.


Friday estimates (via The-Numbers):

Joker, $5.5M
Maleficent, $4.8M
Zombieland 2, $3.4m
Countdown, $3.1M (2,675 theaters)
Black and Blue, $3.1M (2,062 theaters)
The Lighthouse, $1.3M (586 theaters)
Gemini Man, $1.1M



Weekend Projections (via BoxOffice.com)

Maleficent, $18.6M
Joker, $18.5M
Zombieland 2, $11.2M
Black and Blue, $8.4M
Countdown, $8.1M
Gemini Man, $4.2M
The Lighthouse, $4.1M
The Current War, $2.9M
Abominable, $2.1M


PTA:
Jojo Rabbit, $20K
The Lighthouse, $7K
Maleficent, $4.9K
Joker, $4.7K
Black and Blue, $4K

As anticipated, Current War and Western Stars have abysmal PTA counts. No word yet on Frankie.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Spectre's Spooky Selections - Halloween Edition (10/25)

Post by Screen203 »

Pretty much spot on about all the openers. Honestly Countdown could have done better (as bad as it looks) if STX marketed it more aggressively. That trailer got a massive reaction with Hustlers.

As for the new Box Office Mojo, I would like it more if they kept the old features. It needed an update, but they shouldn't have kept much of the useful features of the site behind a paywall...
It's not destroying. It's making something new.

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Re: Spectre's Spooky Selections - Halloween Edition (10/25)

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Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Joker, $18.9M
4 points - Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, $18.5M
3 points - The Addams Family, $11.7M
2 points - Zombieland 2: Double Tap, $11.6M
1 point - Countdown, $9.0M
Black and Blue, $8.3M
Gemini Man, $4.0M
The Lighthouse, $3.1M
The Current War, $2.7M
Abominable, $2.0M


PTA:
5 points - Jojo Rabbit
4 points - Parasite
3 points - The Lighthouse
2 points - Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
1 point - Joker
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Spectre's Spooky Selections - Halloween Edition (10/25)

Post by Shrykespeare »

BTW, the Jay and Silent Bob reboot had a great second weekend.

Celebrate!



On second thought, just say no. :lol:
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Spectre's Spooky Selections - Halloween Edition (10/25)

Post by Buscemi2 »

Not sure which fanbase is more deluded: Kevin Smith's for continuing to support his thinner, past his prime ass, Kanye West's for watching his latest ego trip, or the alt-right for allowing No Safe Spaces to have a $45,000 PTA (of course, over half that came on Friday so it seems as if the Ben Shapiro 2020 crowd won't keep it around for long).

Yes, I'm bummed Western Stars flopped even with the good reviews but not as bummed as the fact that no theatre near me got the film. However, The Lion King is still playing after more than three months.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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Re: Spectre's Spooky Selections - Halloween Edition (10/25)

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, $19.4M
4 points - Joker, $19.2M
3 points - The Addams Family, $12.0M
2 points - Zombieland 2: Double Tap, $11.8M
1 point - Countdown, $8.9M
Black and Blue, $8.4M
Gemini Man, $4.1M
The Lighthouse, $3.0M
The Current War, $2.6M
Abominable, $2.1M


PTA:
5 points - Jojo Rabbit, $18,983
4 points - Parasite, $14,100
3 points - The Lighthouse, $5,171
2 points - Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, $5,111
1 point - Joker, $4,890

Frankie misses by a hair's-breadth with $4,859.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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