Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 4th-6th

[Buscemi2]

“Never rub another man’s rhubarb.” – The Joker, Batman (1989)

It looks like that when Batman’s greatest nemesis comes to town, others choose to back away from the psychotic clown. This weekend, one wide release and two limited releases.

Last Week

Being the only wide release this weekend (besides three different compilations of Friends episodes given theatrical distribution via Fathom), Abominable took the weekend with a $20.6 million take. Downton Abbey dropped 54% in its second weekend to place at $14.3 million. Hustlers rose from fifth to third in its third weekend with $11.4 million. It: Chapter Two stayed in fourth with a $10.2 million tally while Ad Astra rounded out the top five, dropping from second to make $10 million.

On the PTA scene, Judy won despite a near 500 theatre opening, averaging $6,313 while finishing in seventh in box office. The film adds over 1,000 theatres on Friday. Abominable was second while the political documentary Where’s My Roy Cohn? took show. Coming up on the rear are Downton Abbey and Hustlers.

This Week

I’m a “Joker”, I’m a Smoker, I’m a Midnight Toker

The only wide release this week is Joker (Warner Bros.), the latest film from Todd Phillips (The Hangover trilogy, Old School) and the winner of this year’s Golden Lion at the Venice Film Festival. I believe that we are aware of the character of The Joker and his importance to the Batman universe as well as pop culture. Many actors, such as Cesar Romero, Jack Nicholson, Mark Hamill, Heath Ledger, and Jared Leto have played the villain to varying degrees of success. This time, Joaquin Phoenix fills the big shoes of the character for a new origin story unrelated to the currently-remodeling DC Extended Universe.

The time is 1981. Arthur Fleck (Phoenix) is poor, mentally ill, and taking care of his mother on the rough part of Gotham City. Struggling to make it as a stand-up comedian, Fleck decides to take out his frustration on those whom he believes have wronged him and becomes the original Joker. Also starring are Robert De Niro, Zazie Beetz, Frances Conroy, and Marc Maron.

Despite the Golden Lion win, it seems that the film has been somewhat divisive. European critics have praised the film for its different tone compared to other comic book adaptations while American critics have been more critical for its dark and violent nature. In addition, it’s been suggested that the film’s content could lead to copycat crimes (we haven’t seen it yet but we know how some people can be influenced by media to do stupid things). However, there have been many suggestions that the film could be Warner Bros.’ big Oscar film (Phoenix, usually not one for campaigning, has said he will not partake in lobbying his latest method turn). Also, The Joker is an incredibly popular character. Despite the hard R rating, this is going to open big. Whether it holds is a matter of debate. Phoenix has said he deliberately made the character hard to like. Who knows if audiences will view the film coldly or embrace its brutal vision.

Box Office Potential: even with media hysteria and beefed-up security, the movie’s probably going to break some records. The character brings in the mainstream audiences, the Golden Lion win and 70mm prints should bring in the highbrow crowd. $105 million opening, $225 million finish.

Arthouse Class 101

This lesson will present two titles.

Lucy in the Sky (Disney/Fox Searchlight) – Anyone remember Lisa Nowak? You know, that astronaut who was in the news some years back for stalking another astronaut that she was obsessed with, hoping to have a romantic relationship? No? Well, the showrunner for the Fargo series decided to make an awards bait drama loosely based on the incident. Natalie Portman plays Nowak, renamed Lucy Cola (I wonder what flavor of cola?) for this one, and…it’s basically similar to the real events, but more artsy and without adult diapers. Jon Hamm, Zazie Beetz (her second movie this weekend), Dan Stevens, Ellen Burstyn, Nick Offerman, Tig Notaro, and Jeffrey Donovan co-star.

Disney was hesitant to release the film, waiting until a few months ago to finally give it a release date, and rightfully so. Critics have torn apart the film for taking a ridiculous concept, true or not, and playing it so straight in hopes of Oscar glory. The reviews are also not good for Portman’s career, who seems to be in need of a career boost lately (signing on to return to the Thor series after sitting out of Ragnarok feels like damage control more than anything). With Ad Astra, also inherited by Disney, filling audiences’ need for an thought-provoking space film, this film feels like an afterthought and the backlash simply hastened the decision to give it a mercy killing.

3-5 PTA points and under a million in box office.

Pain and Glory (Sony Pictures Classics) – On the other end of the spectrum, we have a film that’s being called Pedro Almodovar’s best in some time. The official Spanish entry for the Best International Feature Film category at the forthcoming Oscars, the film stars Antonio Banderas (who won Best Actor at Cannes and could compete for an Oscar as well) as a film director in decline having to revisit his past and confront his personal issues while trying to get himself out of the creative block he has gotten himself into.

The story is semi-autobiographical, as much of the premise focuses on the director’s falling-out with a fellow actor, much like a falling-out Almodovar and Banderas had in real life. Critics have praised the film for its depiction of art and its effect on the artist and it’s made a decent amount of money in Europe. Can its success repeat itself domestically? I can’t see why not. Almodovar’s had a few misses but when he hits, it’s a serviceable take.

12-15 PTA points and $4-5 million in box office.

Top 5: Joker, Abominable, Downton Abbey, Hustlers, It: Chapter Two
PTA: Pain and Glory, Joker, Where’s My Roy Cohn?, Judy, Abominable

Next week, tranny will cover three wide releases, The Addams Family (United Artists/MGM), Gemini Man (Paramount), and Jexi (Lionsgate/CBS), and one limited release, Parasite (Neon). Smile, because it confuses people. Smile, because it's easier than explaining what is killing you inside.

[Screen203]

Joker reminds me a lot of Watchmen and Batman V Superman in terms of the way that I think audiences will react (despite better reviews than either, and the marketing not presenting it as a superhero film).

I think that most of the incel/alt-right/MRA etc. crowd will avoid Joker as most of them don't go to non-religious movies anyway, as their uproar about De Niro's politics will overshadow any interest they have in a movie that (supposedly) is against right-wing extremists. I can't see it being taken by them in the same way as something like Fight Club or Natural Born Killers considering their likely against the film...

[Shrykespeare]

I'm on the fence about Joker. I honestly don't see a huge hit. I'm probably wrong, though.



Celebrity birthdays:

Zach Galifianakis turned 50 on 10/1
Brie Larson turned 30 on 10/1
Gwen Stefani turns 50 on 10/3
Armand Assante turns 70 on 10/4
Rachael Leigh Cook turns 40 on 10/4
Dakota Johnson turns 30 on 10/4

[Buscemi2]

Pre-sales are ahead of Venom and It: Chapter Two. And pretty much anything with a 70mm run either does well or overperforms.

Also, I think the beefed-up security is going to end up making it a bigger film. When the media turns your product into forbidden fruit, it makes potential audiences even more interested.

[numbersix]

Good analysis of Joker. It's going to be huge just because everyone is talking about it, particularly in the news. The movies-cause-violence debate has been sparked off again and will continue across the weeks. But, despite the trailers and the reviews this is a very subdued film. Imagine The Dark Knight without any of the action sequences. And a weird backstory for someone who didn't need one. I'm wondering if there will be a bit of backlash because it's not really a superhero/villain film. Then again, we've seen how buzz can influence an audience's opinion time and time again. A high opening and harsh drop is also what I'm thinking.

Poor Lucy in the Sky. I was so looking forward to it. Not anymore. My money is now on Pain and Glory, which has been pretty successful for Almodovar abroad.

[Shrykespeare]

Theater counts:

Joker - 4,374
Lucy in the Sky - 37

Judy - expands to 1400+


Next week:

The Addams Family - 3,800+
Gemini Man - 3,500
Jexi - 2,300

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascore:

Joker: B+

So that question has been answered. Audiences seem to like the film, as this was the same grade for Venom and both It films.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates

Joker, $39.9M
Abominable, $2.8M
Downton Abbey, $2.4M
Hustlers, $1.9M
It: Chapter 2, $1.4M
Judy, $1.3M
Ad Astra, $1.2M



Weekend Projections

Joker, $91.5M
Abominable, $12.5M
Downton Abbey, $7.9M
Hustlers, $6.1M
It: Chapter 2, $5.2
Judy, $4.5M
Ad Astra, $4.4M
Rambo: Last Blood, $3.4M


Lucy in the Sky will have about $60K in 37 theaters, for a PTA of $1,622. Though at this early stage, only Joker would have a PTA over $3K. (Way over at $20K).

[Buscemi2]

I have to wonder if Disney's still going to expand Lucy in the Sky to 350 theatres in the next few weeks. It makes no sense to do so.

[Screen203]

While an official announcement hasn't been made by Sony Classics, Pain And Glory is expected to win the PTA crown with a 30,000+ PTA according to Scott Mendelson of Forbes(link -https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmende ... cc79fa764d - are you able to make links active?).

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Joker, $93.5M
4 points - Abominable, $12.0M
3 points - Downton Abbey, $8.0M
2 points - Hustlers, $6.3M
1 point - It: Chapter Two, $5.4M
Ad Astra, $4.6M
Rambo: Last Blood, $3.5M
War, $1.6M
Good Boys, $900K



PTA:
5 points - Pain and Glory
4 points - Joker
3 points - Where's My Roy Cohn?
2 points - Judy
1 point - Abominable




It: Chapter Two crosses $200M. $220 seems like the ceiling.

Hustlers is a shoe-in to make $100M. Wowsers.

Downton Abeey looks destined for $90M. $100M looks like a stretch at this point.

Abominable looks like it will top out around $60M.

[Chienfantome]

Man Hustlers is a killer. It was drafted low and will do wonders for those who picked it.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Joker, $96.2M (5)
4 points - Abominable, $11.9M (9)
3 points - Downton Abbey, $8.0M (12)
2 points - Hustlers, $6.4M (10)
1 point - It: Chapter Two, $5.3M (10)


PTA:
5 points - Pain and Glory, $38,159 (5)
4 points - Joker, $21,994 (4)
3 points - Judy, $3,154 (8)
2 points - Where's My Roy Cohn?, $3,068 (10)
1 point - Abominable, $2,806 (5)