Walleye's Weekly Winners - 9/27

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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Walleye413
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Walleye's Weekly Winners - 9/27

Post by Walleye413 »

And September is the most exciting month of the year! Who would have guessed that back in January? After It 2 we get Hustlers, then Downton Abbey. If you set your slates up to be September heavy you are sitting pretty right about now. If you thought August, or July, or November was the way to go (hands up!) I weep for your future. Will this kick ass month end as strong as it started. Sadly - no chance of that. But I’m betting it’ll still be a surprise.

Our sole wide release this week is Abominable. You may feel like you’ve seen this movie before, because you have. It was called, Smallfoot, nope sorry I meant Missing Link, oops, I mean it was Harry and Hendersons. Anyway - there’s probably not a ton of originality in this one. It’s your standard animated fare in most aspects but there’s just a few things that set it apart. 1 it looks gorgeous. The How to Train your Dragon team does amazing work and this seems on par with that. Plus - it’s set in Asia with a boldly intentional Asian cast and storyline. Will that play in Peoria? I think it might. And if it gets any cultural kudos it’ll play really well on the west coast. Conservative estimates have this coming in at 20 million, and topping out at 60 million or so. It’s priced a little high for that. But if it hits 25 million plus a strong hold, it could be worth it. I’m guessing the latter - but I’m a sucker for kids movies set in China.

On the PTA front you’ve got Renee Zellweger singing her heart out in Judy, the latest biopic/Oscar bait. And it is all in on that. Early buzz has Renee jumping into the Oscar race, a nice return to form after some extended time away. Personally, I loved her in Jerry Maguire so I’m happy to see her get her feet back under her - and her voice as well. This will be the clear winner for this week, and if the roll-out is handled well you could hit double digits easily. Definitely worth a look.

The only other movie coming out is The Day Shall Come - a satire from Chris Morris and sporting Anna Kendrick in the cast. If you’re reading this you are a wise discerner of entertainment and you know satire is one of the harder things to nail. And even when you do nail it, it’s even harder to find an audience. By all accounts this is a pretty good movie. And by most accounts, it’s a dud on your slate. Below average IMDB score, low PTA points if any. Pick Judy, or any of the other Oscar hopefuls soon to be flooding our game.

That’s it for me! You’d think they could have moved one of the 50 August wide-releases to this weekend, but hey, I’m no Movie exec. What do I know! Join us next week when we all get to hotly debate the merits of another Joker - and the violence he brings.

Top 5
Abominable
Downton Abbey
Ad Astra
Hustlers
It 2

PTA
Judy
Abominable
Roy Cohn
Downton Abbey
The Day Shall Come

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 9/27

Post by Buscemi2 »

Judy's getting 300 theatres this weekend. At most, it will probably get you $5,000 PTA before expansions make it a fringe title in that category.

And I still don't get why people here are so high on Abominable. We've seen this movie twice in the past year and it wasn't that successful either time. Smallfoot couldn't do it with big stars. Missing Link couldn't do it with good reviews. Abominable has neither so how is the third time going to be the charm?
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Walleye413
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 9/27

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300? Oof, the theatre count of death! Yeah, sadly knocks that out.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 9/27

Post by Buscemi2 »

If it's Roadside Attractions and has a somewhat bankable lead, it's going to get more than a few theatres.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 9/27

Post by Screen203 »

I was rather high on Abominable, but I've noticed the marketing has been nonexistent- it reminds me of Pets 2.

Judy could actually be a good pick in late round (double digits) Box Office, but is likely to fall short in Ultimate unless it really breaks out.

I don't see why The Day Shall Come can't do similar numbers to Art Of Self Defense - IFC is good at handling dark comedies and younger-skewing fims.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 9/27

Post by numbersix »

What worries me is the lack of buzz for The Day Shall Come. Usually a Chris Morris movie is an EVENT, but no one is raving about this in the way they did about Four Lions.

Judy is going to be a decent box office hit. Somewhere between 15 and 25 mil is my guess.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 9/27

Post by Buscemi2 »

The hardcore Garland fans haven't exactly been raving about the film. And it's been on the shelf for a while, suggesting that Lionsgate doesn't have much faith in it. Personally, it looks too similar to some failed awards bait biopics from the past several years.

As for The Day Shall Come, I think it's hard to buy Anna Kendrick as a federal agent. She makes Emily Blunt look like the toughest agent on the force. As for satire, I'm surprised that there's still a market for it. It only seems to make people apathetic and believe they can't do anything to change things. No wonder why Jon Stewart left The Daily Show.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 9/27

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Theater Counts:

Abominable - 4,242
Judy - 461
The Day Shall Come - 32



Next week:

Joker - 4,000+
Lucy in the Sky - 38




Celebrity birthdays:

Bruce Springsteen turned 70 on 9/23
Jason Alexander turned 60 on 9/23
Pedro Almodovar turned 70 on 9/25
Catherine Zeta-Jones turned 50 on 9/25
Anson Williams turned 70 on 9/26
Erika Eleniak turns 50 on 9/29
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 9/27

Post by Shrykespeare »

By the way, if anyone on the pricing panel hasn't gotten their schemes in to me, PLEASE DO IT SOON.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 9/27

Post by transformers2 »

Can you send it to me again? Not sure if I accidently deleted it or you never sent to me, but it's nowhere to be found in my e-mails.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 9/27

Post by Shrykespeare »

Fuck.

Fuck fuck fuck.

I forgot to send them out.

Sending now. Please, y'all, do your best to get them to me.

So sorry. I'm fucking old...
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Walleye413
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 9/27

Post by Walleye413 »

That'a a lot of F bombs for an old man :)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 9/27

Post by Shrykespeare »

Walleye413 wrote:That'a a lot of F bombs for an old man :)
I'm trying to catch the recordholder, Joe Pesci. He's about 2.45 million fucks ahead of me.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 9/27

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday estimates

Abominable, $5.7M
Downton Abbey, $4.4M
Hustlers, $3.7M
Ad Astra, $3.0M
It: Chapter 2, $2.8M
Rambo: Last Blood, $2.3M
Judy, $900K



Weekend Projections:

Abominable, $20.7M
Downton Abbey, $14.3M
Hustlers, $11.6M
Ad Astra, $10.2M
It: Chapter 2, $10M
Rambo: Last Blood, $8.1M
Judy, $3M
Good Boys, $2.1M
Angel Has Fallen, $1.6M
The Lion King, $1.6M
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 9/27

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Abominable, $20.8M
4 points - Downton Abbey, $14.5M
3 points - Hustlers, $11.5M
2 points - It: Chapter 2, $10.4M
1 point - Ad Astra, $10.1M
Rambo: Last Blood, $8.6M
Judy, $3.1M
Good Boys, $2.0M
The Lion King, $1.6M
Angel Has Fallen, $1.5M



PTA:
5 points - Judy
4 points - Where's My Roy Cohn?
3 points - Abominable
2 points - Downton Abbey
1 point - Hustlers
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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