Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/20

[transformers2]

STX took a gamble on Hustlers and it paid off big time.

The mini-major whose been going through very public financial woes in recent months pushed back several summer releases in order to properly push this fact-based stripper crime saga and were rewarded with an excellent debut ($33.2 mil) that came within striking distance of knocking off horror blockbuster It: Chapter Two ($39.6 mil, -56.5%) for the #1 spot. Hustlers' breakout performance set a new OW record for the studio that launched in August 2015 and topped Monster in Law as the best start for a Jennifer Lopez live action vehicle. While WOM hasn't been nearly as enthusiastic as the critical reviews, this should become STX's third ever $100 mil earner and gives them some positive momentum as they are tentatively set to launch a pretty sizable fall/winter slate that includes Countdown, 21 Bridges and My Spy.

Warner Brothers has to be envious of STX right now as their largely ugly 2019 slate was dealt yet another crushing blow with the crash-and-burn failure of The Goldfinch. John Crowley's adaptation of the acclaimed bestselling novel managed a pathetic $2.6 mil OW, which marked the sixth worst all time opening for a film playing in 2,500+ theaters. Joker will likely break the cold streak WB has been on since Detective Pikachu underwhelmed back in May, but having a $45 mil production implode so spectacularly will likely haunt the heads of the studio for the foreseeable future.

While nothing struck out as hard as The Goldfinch, the limited releases also managed to disappoint. Neon's acclaimed Colombian thriller Monos led the forgettable group of new releases with a PTA average that was just a hair under $10,000. Monos' middling debut was still a triumph compared to the pair of titles IFC rolled out last weekend. Sundance pickup The Sound of Silence averaged a measly $2,725 PTA in 2 theaters and new age Frankenstein thriller Depraved didn't even bother to report. Thankfully, this batch of crap will be a distant memory once the prestige specialty fare slate ramps up within the next few weeks.

Wide Releases:
Cherish the last 12-18 months of old guard Fox projects cinephiles because the Mousehouse aren't likely going to greenlight anything like Ad Astra (Fox). This nearly $90 mil budgeted sci-fi drama from the well-respected indie auteur James Gray is reportedly a meditative character study that just happens to be centered around a huge space mission about an astronaut (Brad Pitt) tasked with tracking down his father (Tommy Lee Jones) on the fringes of the galaxy and stopping a potentially lethal threat from destroying the Earth.

Will such an ambitious original project be able to perform well at the box office? That my friends is a great question that I just can't give a confident answer to. The reviews following its premiere in Venice were excellent, Disney has marketed it better than any other Fox title they've been involved with thus far and Pitt's presence atop the marquee all but guarantees a decent opening. However, there's a real chance that audiences don't react well to such a slow space movie and kill it with poor WOM before it gets a chance to build any traction. This significant cloudiness surrounding its prospects makes it a far less viable option than the other similarly-priced wide releases hitting theaters this weekend.
Prediction: $11-22 mil OW/1-6 Top 5/0-2 PTA/mid to high 7 IMDb/$28-67 mil overall BO
Price (SEP-NOV): $11 ULT/$12 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Despite its excellent early reviews, its status as an original sci-fi adventure and slightly higher price tag makes Ad Astra the shakiest of this week's wide openers by far.


After nearly 35 years of mowing down evildoers with unrivaled ease, John Rambo is finally hanging up his bandana and bow. But not before he goes on final blood-and-vengeance soaked ride. Rambo: Last Blood (Lionsgate) sees the 112 year old Rambo, who is now retired on his ranch, suddenly get thrust back into action when his niece (Yvette Monreals) gets kidnapped by a drug cartel. Expect corny dialogue, a high body count and for Sly Stallone to look absolutely gassed in every action scene.

As fellow Lionsgate production Angel Has Fallen proved last month, just because a franchise appears to be past its prime doesn't mean it actually is. Even though it's been over 11 years since the last installment was released, Rambo is Stallone's most iconic character besides Rocky Balboa and there are likely many folks out there that will be inclined to come out for his swan song. Plus this is the type of relatively wide open portion of the calendar where an R-rated action flick can really thrive and with Joker still 2 weeks away, there's a nice window for Last Blood to stack some cash before its target audience flocks to see Joaquin Phoenix's maniacal laugh. If Last Blood can hit its low-to-mid $20 mil tracking projections, a run comparable to the aforementioned Angel Has Fallen (minus the absurd top 5 total) could be in play.
Prediction: $13-26 mil OW/2-7 Top 5/1-4 PTA/high 6 to low 7 IMDb/$38-70 mil overall BO
Price (SEP-NOV): $10 ULT/$10 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: While being part of a long-running IP could kills its legs and subsequently it's ULT value, its cheap price tag and relatively high floor make Last Blood an attractive BO option.


Put on a pot of tea and wake your elderly relatives that fancy themselves monarchs because Downton Abbey (Focus) is back!!! Naturally, the big screen return of the British period drama that enchanted small screen audiences with 6 seasons of magnificent outfits, luxurious settings and Maggie Smith quips has the passionate fanbase fired up. Early Fandango presales outpaced last year's Mamma Mia! Here Go Again, which made $35 mil during its OW, indicating that there's a real chance that it wins the weekend in runaway fashion. Whether or not it there will be enough demand for Downton Abbey to go on a lengthy run remains to be seen, but the opening should be quite good.
Prediction: $21-38 mil OW/2-8 Top 5/3-6 PTA/low to mid 7 IMDb/$40-70 mil overall BO
Price (SEP-NOV): $10 ULT/$9 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Like Rambo, Ultimate is a bit risky because of its questionable longevity, but it should be a solid BO pick.


Limited Releases:
The studio that provided our game with the biggest PTA surprise of 2019 thus far is back with another documentary in Midnight Traveler (Oscilloscope). This harrowing film shot entirely on mobile phones focuses on the journey of Afghan director Hassan Fazili and his family who are suddenly forced to flee the country once the head of the Taliban puts a price on his head.

The reviews it accrued over a lengthy festival run earlier this year were tremendous (100% RT/ 85 Metascore) and clearly with the slew of seeming immigration-related atrocities that have been happening here in the States under Trump, the insight it provides on the perpetual danger and uncertainty immigrants face when they leave their country in search of safety from a tyrannical government or just a better life is more vital than ever. A run like the one Jay Myself went on back in early August seems pretty unlikely, but Midnight Traveler could go down as a surprise PTA breakout before the slew of awards contenders start to oversaturate the limited market.
Prediction: $13-25K OW/2-8 PTA/low to mid 7 IMDb/$35-85k overall BO
Price (JUL-SEP): $2 ULT/$1 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Definitely worth taking a flier on if you have an extra $2 floating around in Ultimate.


Continuing this week's documentary trend is Where's My Roy Cohn? (Sony Classics). This film from Matt Tyrnauer focuses on late lawyer Roy Cohn-a notorious fixer best known for representing Joseph McCarthy during the McCarthy/Army hearings in 1954 –and how his fear-mongering tactics continue to have an impact on today's political climate. Sony Classics has had a hard time getting documentaries that were better reviewed off the ground earlier this year (David Crosby: Remember My Name, Maiden) and the current IMDb user rating is a dismal 4.9, so I wouldn't expect a whole lot from this.
Prediction: $18-40K OW/0-4 PTA/low to mid 5 IMDb/$43-97 k overall BO
Price (JUL-SEP): $3 ULT/$1 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Probably not.


Weekend Projections:
1. Downton Abbey $31 mil
2/3.Hustlers/Rambo: Last Blood $21 mil
4.It: Chapter Two $19.5 mil
5.Ad Astra $15 mil

PTA: Downton Abbey, Rambo: Last Blood, Midnight Traveler, Hustlers, Where's My Roy Cohn?

Tune in next week when Walleye previews Dreamworks' latest animated featureAbominable, Renee Zellweger's potential Oscar-contending turn as Judy Garland in the aptly-named Judy and Chris Morris' incendiary satire The Day Shall Come.

[Shrykespeare]

Theater counts:

Rambo: Last Blood - 3,618
Ad Astra - 3,460
Downton Abbey - 3,079
Where's My Roy Cohn? - 4



Next week:

Abominable - 4,100+




Celebrity birthdays:

Neill Blomkamp turned 40 on 9/17
Alison Lohman turned 40 on 9/18
Fred Willard turned 80 on 9/18

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascores:

Downton Abbey: A
Rambo: Last Blood: B
Ad Astra: B-

[W]

Downton is going to hit over $30 M this weekend. I did not see that coming. I thought it doing well would be $15 M opening with great legs considering the target demo.

[Screen203]

I saw Downton doing well, but not 30 million OW well. People underestimate the popularity of the series, and there has been plenty of marketing (I have been getting plenty of online advertisements despite being about as far from the target demo as possible). The best comparison I can find in terms of audience is the Sex And The City movie, but this will likely be less frontloaded due to the older skew.

[Buscemi2]

Multiple showings near me have been selling out. People are even coming in costume. I haven't seen that for a non-comic book movie in a while.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates

Downton Abbey, $13.8M
Rambo, $7.2M
Ad Astra, $7.2M
Hustlers, $5.4M
It: Chapter 2, $4.8M



Weekend Projections:

Downton Abbey, $35M
Ad Astra, $19.5M
Rambo, $19.4M
Hustlers, $17M
It: Chapter 2, $16.2M
Lion King, $2.7M
Good Boys, $2.6M
Angel Has Fallen, $2.2M
Overcomer, $1.6M
Hobbs & Shaw, $1.5M



Wow. After a meh summer, fall is off to a rip-roaring start! Maybe Abominable will overperform as well?

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Downton Abbey, $31.0M
4 points - Ad Astra, $19.2M
3 points - Rambo: Last Blood, $19.0M
2 points - It: Chapter Two, $17.4M
1 point - Hustlers, $17.0M
The Lion King, $2.6M
Good Boys, $2.5M
Angel Has Fallen, $2.4M
Overcomer, $1.5M
Hobbs & Shaw, $1.5M



PTA:
5 points - Where's My Roy Cohn?
4 points - Downton Abbey
3 points - Ad Astra
2 points - Rambo: Last Blood
1 point - Hustlers

Midnight Traveler just missed.