You'll Float 2 - Screen's Picks for 9/6-9/8
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You'll Float 2 - Screen's Picks for 9/6-9/8
Last Weekend
America chose direct-to-video worthy right-wing propaganda yet again as Angel Has Fallen topped an average Labor Day weekend with 14 million over the long weekend. The well-reviewed "Superbad with middle schoolers" Good Boys used Seth Rogen's and Evan Goldberg's goodwill to add another 12 million worth of young adults and adolescent's money taken and minds further corrupted to its total to become the highest-grossing R-rated comedy in a while, and The Lion King and Hobbs and Shaw held on admirably and religious film Overcomer tries to take enough boomer's attention away from the latest jingoistic Gerald Butler flick to turn a profit. The new releases all stalled, with Bennett's War (I think it's one of those conservative propaganda films from some random indie startup that is shuttered after their no-name films have embarrassing results) having one of the worst wide PTA's of all time.
On the limited front, Brittany Runs A Marathon has the top PTA of the movies in the game (IFC's distribution of Gavin Hood's newest, Official Secrets starring Kiara Knightley, was the top limited release with a PTA exceeding 20k).
But this week…
IT: Chapter 2 –
In September 2017, a perfect storm of sorts hit the box office. Buoyed by an abysmal summer movie lineup, the popularity of the Netflix Original Stranger Things (which obviously took inspiration from the original novel/movie), a viral trend of creepy clowns appearing in random places the Halloween before the movie’s release, strong marketing (including record-breaking views for trailers), and nostalgia to said Steven King novel/TV movie, Andi Muschietti’s crowd-pleasing remake/adaptation of IT surpassed all reasonable expectations by opening to a record-shattering 123 million despite the impact of Hurricane Irma. Legs were solid (by horror standards at least), and the film has gotten a younger fanbase interested in the novel, if not King’s novels in general (Pet Semetary wasn’t a huge breakout, but Doctor Sleep should do solid numbers at least, although King diehards are likely opposed to the film as they were to The Shining – which arguably is his most well-known work heavily due to Kubrick’s film). With all of these positive signs, some would expect that the adaptation of the second half may see an increase. I don’t see that happening, however. While the trailers have been extremely well done (although mostly using a single clip from the movie for the trailer is overused but almost always effective), the marketing doesn’t feel as ubiquitous as it was for the first (or even The Nun – which has seemed to be a trend among Warner/New Line horror films recently as Annabelle Comes Home had a very sub-par effort as well), and overall the buzz seems to not be as potent as the first half of IT had. Reviews have not been as enthusiastic as they were for the first half (although Bill Hader’s performance has been heavily praised). I think the main reason why it won’t reach the numbers the original floated to, though, is the cast. The portion of the novel that focuses on the Losers when they were kids (despite one infamous scene that has been replaced in the movie for good reason) is arguably the most iconic and acclaimed part of the novel. While the film has a very strong cast to play the adult Losers (including Jessica Chastain, James McAvoy, and the aforementioned Hader, and Bill Skarsgard reprising his role as Pennywise), the marketing has focused heavily on flashbacks to the kids (and supposedly the film itself, although I understand that the book and TV movie used this format as well). It will still be a huge hit by any reasonable standard for an R-rated, three-hour horror film using a shape-shifting demonic spider clown who rises to kill unsuspecting children as an allegory for the troubles of adolescence and the loss of innocence (and for any film in general).
My Prediction- 110 million opening, 280 million total (legs will likely be helped by the lack of horror films around Halloween, as well as it’s second Friday falling on the 13th)
Is IT worth putting on your slates –
It comes at a very high price (in the 40-50 range in both Box Office and Ultimate) but should be profitable if you choose to lead a slate around it.
What about PTA/Top 5 Points/IMDb?
Don’t know what to expect from IMDb due to the more lukewarm reaction from critics, as well as Chastain’s progressive politics not gelling with the infamously misogynistic voters of IMDb.
PTA should be reasonably strong, although it is opening in 4400+ theaters according to Box Office Mojo. It should earn plenty of Top 5 points because of the minimal competition from holdovers.
Linda Ronstadt: The Sound Of My Voice –
Documentaries have been on somewhat of a roll recently at the box office. Last year had significant arthouse hits like Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Three Identical Strangers, and winner of Best Documentary at the most recent Oscars, Free Solo. Music documentaries have always been among the most successful, with hits dating back to Madonna: Truth Or Dare and U2: Rattle And Hum (Woodstock isn’t included on Mojo’s page, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it holds the all-time record, at least in terms of tickets, as many music/concert documentaries were released exclusively in IMAX or with heavy 3D premiums). This year has brought us Aretha Franklin documentary Amazing Grace, as well as Echo In The Canyon (about the Laurel Canyon scene and the rise of “surf rock” and the “California sound” in the 60’s). I think that this should be another solid hit in the music/concert subgenre, as well as documentaries in general. Most documentaries have recently been successful when they focus on a famous person/event, and Linda Ronstadt one of the most successful artists of her time, and is familiar with the older audiences that drive arthouse successes nowadays. Add in great reviews, and a promise of “exclusive” content to the film (Linda is unable to sing due to having Parkinson’s disease, and the subtext of the trailer above seems to imply that this may be the only chance to hear her music in a theater). It is also being released by rising studio Greenwich (they specialize in documentaries like the aforementioned Echo In The Canyon and Free Solo – though Mojo doesn’t list them, their official website as well as The-Numbers list it as being distributed by Greenwich).
Is it worth putting on your slate?
If you are considering putting this film in Ultimate as a filler, I would recommend it. A relatively soft September for arthouse films should help it maintain PTA interest/points for a solid amount of time, especially considering its mere 2 dollar price.
Won’t do anything in Box Office, though.
What about IMDb?
Even though a true story about a prominent female figure in a male-dominated area would be the kind of thing that pisses the alt-right off, it’s too small of a film to be seriously be affected by review-bombing.
Rapid Response –
This racing documentary comes from Atlas Entertainment, which seems to be one of those upstarts distributing religious/conservative films hoping to score a God’s Not Dead-type grassroots success, as they distributed the final two chapters of Ayn Rynd’s controversial Objectivist-themed novel Atlas Shrugged. No reviews have been posted thus far – don’t expect a sleeper with this one.
Join us next week for when six covers multiple new releases including the buzzy strippers-take-on-Wall-Street caper Hustlers, the adaptation of the bestseller The Goldfinch, and indie releases Monos, Depraved, and The Sound Of Silence.
And remember-
"The predictions were accurate enough for Georgie"
America chose direct-to-video worthy right-wing propaganda yet again as Angel Has Fallen topped an average Labor Day weekend with 14 million over the long weekend. The well-reviewed "Superbad with middle schoolers" Good Boys used Seth Rogen's and Evan Goldberg's goodwill to add another 12 million worth of young adults and adolescent's money taken and minds further corrupted to its total to become the highest-grossing R-rated comedy in a while, and The Lion King and Hobbs and Shaw held on admirably and religious film Overcomer tries to take enough boomer's attention away from the latest jingoistic Gerald Butler flick to turn a profit. The new releases all stalled, with Bennett's War (I think it's one of those conservative propaganda films from some random indie startup that is shuttered after their no-name films have embarrassing results) having one of the worst wide PTA's of all time.
On the limited front, Brittany Runs A Marathon has the top PTA of the movies in the game (IFC's distribution of Gavin Hood's newest, Official Secrets starring Kiara Knightley, was the top limited release with a PTA exceeding 20k).
But this week…
IT: Chapter 2 –
In September 2017, a perfect storm of sorts hit the box office. Buoyed by an abysmal summer movie lineup, the popularity of the Netflix Original Stranger Things (which obviously took inspiration from the original novel/movie), a viral trend of creepy clowns appearing in random places the Halloween before the movie’s release, strong marketing (including record-breaking views for trailers), and nostalgia to said Steven King novel/TV movie, Andi Muschietti’s crowd-pleasing remake/adaptation of IT surpassed all reasonable expectations by opening to a record-shattering 123 million despite the impact of Hurricane Irma. Legs were solid (by horror standards at least), and the film has gotten a younger fanbase interested in the novel, if not King’s novels in general (Pet Semetary wasn’t a huge breakout, but Doctor Sleep should do solid numbers at least, although King diehards are likely opposed to the film as they were to The Shining – which arguably is his most well-known work heavily due to Kubrick’s film). With all of these positive signs, some would expect that the adaptation of the second half may see an increase. I don’t see that happening, however. While the trailers have been extremely well done (although mostly using a single clip from the movie for the trailer is overused but almost always effective), the marketing doesn’t feel as ubiquitous as it was for the first (or even The Nun – which has seemed to be a trend among Warner/New Line horror films recently as Annabelle Comes Home had a very sub-par effort as well), and overall the buzz seems to not be as potent as the first half of IT had. Reviews have not been as enthusiastic as they were for the first half (although Bill Hader’s performance has been heavily praised). I think the main reason why it won’t reach the numbers the original floated to, though, is the cast. The portion of the novel that focuses on the Losers when they were kids (despite one infamous scene that has been replaced in the movie for good reason) is arguably the most iconic and acclaimed part of the novel. While the film has a very strong cast to play the adult Losers (including Jessica Chastain, James McAvoy, and the aforementioned Hader, and Bill Skarsgard reprising his role as Pennywise), the marketing has focused heavily on flashbacks to the kids (and supposedly the film itself, although I understand that the book and TV movie used this format as well). It will still be a huge hit by any reasonable standard for an R-rated, three-hour horror film using a shape-shifting demonic spider clown who rises to kill unsuspecting children as an allegory for the troubles of adolescence and the loss of innocence (and for any film in general).
My Prediction- 110 million opening, 280 million total (legs will likely be helped by the lack of horror films around Halloween, as well as it’s second Friday falling on the 13th)
Is IT worth putting on your slates –
It comes at a very high price (in the 40-50 range in both Box Office and Ultimate) but should be profitable if you choose to lead a slate around it.
What about PTA/Top 5 Points/IMDb?
Don’t know what to expect from IMDb due to the more lukewarm reaction from critics, as well as Chastain’s progressive politics not gelling with the infamously misogynistic voters of IMDb.
PTA should be reasonably strong, although it is opening in 4400+ theaters according to Box Office Mojo. It should earn plenty of Top 5 points because of the minimal competition from holdovers.
Linda Ronstadt: The Sound Of My Voice –
Documentaries have been on somewhat of a roll recently at the box office. Last year had significant arthouse hits like Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Three Identical Strangers, and winner of Best Documentary at the most recent Oscars, Free Solo. Music documentaries have always been among the most successful, with hits dating back to Madonna: Truth Or Dare and U2: Rattle And Hum (Woodstock isn’t included on Mojo’s page, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it holds the all-time record, at least in terms of tickets, as many music/concert documentaries were released exclusively in IMAX or with heavy 3D premiums). This year has brought us Aretha Franklin documentary Amazing Grace, as well as Echo In The Canyon (about the Laurel Canyon scene and the rise of “surf rock” and the “California sound” in the 60’s). I think that this should be another solid hit in the music/concert subgenre, as well as documentaries in general. Most documentaries have recently been successful when they focus on a famous person/event, and Linda Ronstadt one of the most successful artists of her time, and is familiar with the older audiences that drive arthouse successes nowadays. Add in great reviews, and a promise of “exclusive” content to the film (Linda is unable to sing due to having Parkinson’s disease, and the subtext of the trailer above seems to imply that this may be the only chance to hear her music in a theater). It is also being released by rising studio Greenwich (they specialize in documentaries like the aforementioned Echo In The Canyon and Free Solo – though Mojo doesn’t list them, their official website as well as The-Numbers list it as being distributed by Greenwich).
Is it worth putting on your slate?
If you are considering putting this film in Ultimate as a filler, I would recommend it. A relatively soft September for arthouse films should help it maintain PTA interest/points for a solid amount of time, especially considering its mere 2 dollar price.
Won’t do anything in Box Office, though.
What about IMDb?
Even though a true story about a prominent female figure in a male-dominated area would be the kind of thing that pisses the alt-right off, it’s too small of a film to be seriously be affected by review-bombing.
Rapid Response –
This racing documentary comes from Atlas Entertainment, which seems to be one of those upstarts distributing religious/conservative films hoping to score a God’s Not Dead-type grassroots success, as they distributed the final two chapters of Ayn Rynd’s controversial Objectivist-themed novel Atlas Shrugged. No reviews have been posted thus far – don’t expect a sleeper with this one.
Join us next week for when six covers multiple new releases including the buzzy strippers-take-on-Wall-Street caper Hustlers, the adaptation of the bestseller The Goldfinch, and indie releases Monos, Depraved, and The Sound Of Silence.
And remember-
"The predictions were accurate enough for Georgie"
It's not destroying. It's making something new.
Image courtesy of -
https://nerdist.com/annihilation-shimmer-ending-explained/
Image courtesy of -
https://nerdist.com/annihilation-shimmer-ending-explained/
Re: You'll Float 2 - Screen's Picks for 9/6-9/8
I think It: Chapter 2 will surpass the first's opening. The first part was loved, and this has a more recognised cast. Plus, who saw the first and wouldn't want to see the second??? The reviews will contribute to a weaker WOM, so those legs won't be as strong. I'm thinking a 130m opening and a 275m cume.
Linda Ronstadt's Plow King song may have been excellent, but not sure if a doc will grab audiences.
Linda Ronstadt's Plow King song may have been excellent, but not sure if a doc will grab audiences.
- Walleye413
- Marv
- Posts: 1763
- Joined: November 17th, 2009, 1:17 am
Re: You'll Float 2 - Screen's Picks for 9/6-9/8
Wait she did the Plow King song? One of the funniest Simpsons episodes ever.
I'm in total agreement on your It pick. I think bigger weekend - weaker legs. Reviews are rough so far - but everyone loved the first one.
I'm in total agreement on your It pick. I think bigger weekend - weaker legs. Reviews are rough so far - but everyone loved the first one.
Re: You'll Float 2 - Screen's Picks for 9/6-9/8
It: Chapter 2 is now the widest R-rated opener of all-time. 4,570 theatres (also fifth all-time in terms of all movies).
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.
- Walleye413
- Marv
- Posts: 1763
- Joined: November 17th, 2009, 1:17 am
Re: You'll Float 2 - Screen's Picks for 9/6-9/8
So much like Toy Story 4 I feel like It 2 has a number that will be ridiculously high, but still seen as a disappointment. 100? Or 95? Crazy.
Re: You'll Float 2 - Screen's Picks for 9/6-9/8
Projections have lowered to under $100 million due to the long run time (horror films rarely run over two hours and this one is almost three) and mixed reviews. It reminds me a lot of Glass, a film where projections tanked fast once the early reviews came out.
I'm surprised that Warner Bros. wasn't hands-on on this one like they are on the DC properties and force Muschietti to deliver a film running no more than 135 minutes and save the other 35 minutes for that supercut that's supposedly in the works.
I'm surprised that Warner Bros. wasn't hands-on on this one like they are on the DC properties and force Muschietti to deliver a film running no more than 135 minutes and save the other 35 minutes for that supercut that's supposedly in the works.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.
- BanksIsDaFuture
- Jack Torrance
- Posts: 6515
- Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 4:09 pm
Re: You'll Float 2 - Screen's Picks for 9/6-9/8
3 hours is just too long for a horror movie. I think the rewatch-ability that drove the first one won't be the same here.
Alexandra Daddario: Eyes of a Demon, Face of My Future Ex-Wife
Re: You'll Float 2 - Screen's Picks for 9/6-9/8
I do have a feeling that the methheads will be all over it though. So much white trash went to see Chapter 1.
Must have been the clown makeup (Juggalos went to see this one too, right?).
Must have been the clown makeup (Juggalos went to see this one too, right?).
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.
- Shrykespeare
- Site Admin
- Posts: 14273
- Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
- Location: Glendale, AZ
Re: You'll Float 2 - Screen's Picks for 9/6-9/8
Theater counts:
It: Chapter 2 - 4,570
Next week:
Hustlers - 3,100
The Goldfinch - 2,500+
The Sound of Silence - 2
Celebrity birthdays:
Bob Newhart turned 90 on 9/5
William Devane turned 80 on 9/5
George Lazenby turned 80 on 9/5
Pink turns 40 on 9/8
It: Chapter 2 - 4,570
Next week:
Hustlers - 3,100
The Goldfinch - 2,500+
The Sound of Silence - 2
Celebrity birthdays:
Bob Newhart turned 90 on 9/5
William Devane turned 80 on 9/5
George Lazenby turned 80 on 9/5
Pink turns 40 on 9/8
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)
Re: You'll Float 2 - Screen's Picks for 9/6-9/8
And the disappointment begins. It's looking at an $10-11 million Thursday night, below the first's $13.5 million (and that one had later start times).
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.
Re: You'll Float 2 - Screen's Picks for 9/6-9/8
Early Deadline estimates have Chapter 2 making $44 million on Friday and $100-101 million for the weekend. By comparison, the first had a $50.4 million Friday and a $123.4 million weekend.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.
Re: You'll Float 2 - Screen's Picks for 9/6-9/8
Cinemascore:
It: Chapter 2: B+
So even with the lower gross, audiences seem to be liking it as much as the first half.
It: Chapter 2: B+
So even with the lower gross, audiences seem to be liking it as much as the first half.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.
- Shrykespeare
- Site Admin
- Posts: 14273
- Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
- Location: Glendale, AZ
Re: You'll Float 2 - Screen's Picks for 9/6-9/8
Friday Estimates
It: Chapter 2, $37.4M
Angel Has Fallen, $1.7M
Good Boys, $1.6M
Overcomer, $1.0M
The Lion King, $1.0M
Weekend Projections
It: Chapter 2, $91M
Angel Has Fallen, $4.1M
Good Boys, $5.2M
The Lion King, $4.3M
Overcomer, $3.5M
Hobbs & Shaw, $3.3M
Ready or Not, $2.3M
Once Upon a Time, $2.2M
Peanut Butter Falcon, $2.2M
Dora, $2.0M
Scary Stories, $2.0M
It: Chapter 2, $37.4M
Angel Has Fallen, $1.7M
Good Boys, $1.6M
Overcomer, $1.0M
The Lion King, $1.0M
Weekend Projections
It: Chapter 2, $91M
Angel Has Fallen, $4.1M
Good Boys, $5.2M
The Lion King, $4.3M
Overcomer, $3.5M
Hobbs & Shaw, $3.3M
Ready or Not, $2.3M
Once Upon a Time, $2.2M
Peanut Butter Falcon, $2.2M
Dora, $2.0M
Scary Stories, $2.0M
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)
- Shrykespeare
- Site Admin
- Posts: 14273
- Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
- Location: Glendale, AZ
Re: You'll Float 2 - Screen's Picks for 9/6-9/8
Weekend Estimates
Top 10:
5 points - It: Chapter Two, $91.0M
4 points - Angel Has Fallen, $6.0M
3 points - Good Boys, $5.3M
2 points - The Lion King, $4.2M
1 point - Overcomer, $3.7M
Hobbs & Shaw, $3.7M
The Peanut Butter Falcon, $2.276M
Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, $2.275M
Ready or Not, $2.229M
Dory and the Lost City of Gold, $2.17M
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, $2.155M
PTA:
5 points - It: Chapter Two
4 points - Linda Ronstadt: The Sound of My Voice
3 points - Brittany Runs a Marathon
2 points - Angel Has Fallen
1 point - Overcomer
No word yet on Rapid Response.
Top 10:
5 points - It: Chapter Two, $91.0M
4 points - Angel Has Fallen, $6.0M
3 points - Good Boys, $5.3M
2 points - The Lion King, $4.2M
1 point - Overcomer, $3.7M
Hobbs & Shaw, $3.7M
The Peanut Butter Falcon, $2.276M
Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, $2.275M
Ready or Not, $2.229M
Dory and the Lost City of Gold, $2.17M
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, $2.155M
PTA:
5 points - It: Chapter Two
4 points - Linda Ronstadt: The Sound of My Voice
3 points - Brittany Runs a Marathon
2 points - Angel Has Fallen
1 point - Overcomer
No word yet on Rapid Response.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)