Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Film of 8/30

[transformers2]

To the surprise of many, America still loves Mike Banning.

Angel Has Fallen, the third installment of the Gerard Butler-led action franchise, easily bested its low-to-mid teen tracking numbers with an impressive $21.4 mil OW. Remarkably, Angel finished just $300,000 under the opening of its 2016 predecessor London Has Fallen and became the first entry in the series to debut at the top of the box office. Credit goes to Lionsgate for finding the perfect slot on the calendar for a mid-budgeted, adult-aimed popcorn flick to flourish.

Last weekend's #1 movie Good Boys further cemented its sleeper hit status with a respectable second weekend hold ($11.6 mil, 45.6% drop from its OW) while the Kendrick Brothers latest faith-driven sports drama Overcomer ($8.1 mil) narrowly edged out blockbuster holdovers Hobbs & Shaw ($8.068) and The Lion King ($8.065) for the #3 spot.

Amazon struck gold on the limited front once again with Brittany Runs a Marathon-which registered a great $36,142 PTA in 5 theaters. The online shopping juggernaut's film wing seems to have learned from the mistake they made earlier this year with Late Night-which went into 2,200+ theaters in its second week of release and are going to be employing a slow expansion plan with the 2019 Sundance Audience Award winner over the next 2 weekends before finally taking it wide on September 13. This savvy release strategy paired with a staggering lack of competition on the arthouse circuit means Brittany could very well join The Last Black Man in San Francisco, The Farewell and Jay Myself in this summer's very exclusive club of platform releases that registered 10+ PTA points.

Wide Release:
I don't know if it's because studios just assume people are going to be too sad that's summer ending to make their way to the theater or they're too focused on launching award campaigns at Venice/Telluride/Toronto to release anything exciting, but Labor Day Weekend is arguably the worst moviegoing weekend of the calendar year. At least in early February and post-Thanksgiving, you have leftover some awards fare, tentpoles and maybe a fun little genre movie to keep you occupied. Labor Day is a just a wasteland full of middling-to-bad fare that doesn't fit anywhere else on the calendar. With that in mind, Don't Let Go (OTL/BH Tilt/Briarcliff), the only new release in our game this week, seems like it was birthed from a Sad Dump Weekend generator.

This supernatural mystery thriller from Blumhouse was greeted with shoulder shrugs galore at its Sundance premiere (50% RT/54 Metascore) earlier this year. That indifference has carried over to its release. It found its way onto the calendar a little over a month ago and has received a marketing campaign that's been as minimal as possible for a theatrical release (the trailer didn't even come out until mid-July!!!). Hell, Universal couldn't be even bothered to release this under their primary banner and had to dust off about 62 of their subsidiary labels to put this shit out in approximately 900 theaters this weekend.

It's evident that the studio doesn't believe in Don't Let Go in the slightest despite it boasting a very solid cast full of recognizable faces (David Oyelowo, Storm Reid, Brian Tyree Henry, Alfred Molina, Mykelti Williamson) and an interesting albeit not overly unique premise (after receiving a phone call from his niece 2 weeks prior to her death, a detective tries to solve her murder before it happens). Expect an uninspiring result and to probably forget that this move existed in about 3 weeks.

Prediction: $1-3 mil ($2-5 mil 4-day) OW/0 Top 5/0-1 PTA/high 5 to low 6 IMDb/$4-7 mil overall BO
Price (AUG-OCT): $3 ULT/$2 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: No


Weekend Projections:
1.Angel Has Fallen $15 mil ($19 mil 4-day)
2.Good Boys $9 mil ($12 mil 4-day)
3.Overcomer $7.5 mil ($10 mil 4-day)
4/5 The Lion King/Hobbs & Shaw $7 mil ($9.5 mil 4-day)
-Don't Let Go $1.5 mil ($2 mil 4-day)

PTA: Brittany Runs a Marathon, Angel Has Fallen, Overcomer, Fiddler: A Miracle of Miracles, Good Boys

Tune in next week when Screen previews a much livelier slate of films headlined by the fall's inaugural event film It: Chapter 2.

[Buscemi2]

I'm surprised Don't Let Go is even getting 900 theatres. It seems like the kind of film that Blumhouse would dump onto Netflix. David Oyelowo needs to fire his agent.

[Shrykespeare]

Theater counts:

Bennett's War (never heard of this) - 970
Don't Let Go - 922


Next week:

It: Chapter 2 - 4,400+





Celebrity birthdays:

Aaron Paul turned 40 on 8/27
Jack Black turned 50 on 8/28
Jason Priestley turned 50 on 8/28
Rebecca De Mornay turned 60 in 8/29
Richard Gere turns 70 on 8/31
Lily Tomlin turns 80 on 9/1

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates:

Angel Has Fallen, $2.9M
Good Boys, $2.3M
Ready or Not, $1.5M
The Lion King, $1.5M
Overcomer, $1.4M
Hobbs & Shaw, $1.4M
Scary Stories, $1.2M
Spider-Man, $1.1M
Once Upon a Time, $1.0M




Weekend Projections:

Angel Has Fallen, $11.6M
Good Boys, $10.1M
The Lion King, $7.3M
Hobbs & Shaw, $6.0M
Overcomer, $5.7M
Ready or Not, $5.4M
Scary Stories, $4.6M
Once Upon a Time, $4.5M
Spider-Man, $4.4M
Dora, $4.3M

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Angel Has Fallen, $11.6M
4 points - Good Boys, $9.2M
3 points - The Lion King, $6.7M
2 points - Hobbs & Shaw, $6.3M
1 point - Overcomer, $5.7M
Ready or Not, $5.6M
Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, $5.0M
Spider-Man: Far From Home, $4.3M
Dora and the Lost City of Gold, $4.1M
The Angry Birds Movie 2, $4.1M

14. Don't Let Go, $2.4M



PTA:
5 points - Brittany Runs a Marathon
4 points - Angel Has Fallen
3 points - Overcomer
2 points - Good Boys
1 point - Don't Let Go

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Angel Has Fallen, $11.8M (10)
4 points - Good Boys, $9.5M (13)
3 points - The Lion King, $6.9M (24)
2 points - Hobbs & Shaw, $6.5M (18)
1 point - Ready or Not, $5.9M (1)
Ready or Not, $5.7M
Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, $5.0M
Spider-Man: Far From Home, $4.3M
The Angry Birds Movie 2, $4.2M
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, $4.1M
Dora and the Lost City of Gold, $4.1M

14. Don't Let Go, $2.4M



PTA:
5 points - Brittany Runs a Marathon, $8,454 (10)
4 points - Angel Has Fallen, $3,537 (8)
3 points - Overcomer, $3,101 (5)
2 points - Fiddler: A Miracle of Miracles, $2,785 (5)
1 point - Good Boys, $2,749 (6)