SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/30

[Buscemi]

General IMDb message board reception is pretty bad, with reports of disappointment, outright trashing and walk outs. The few that did like it are trashing Roger Ebert's review of the movie (apparently not noticing that most critics agreed with his opinion).

Expect a huge Friday-to-Saturday drop and a Friday share in the near 50%. Hell, this could actually pass Friday the 13th in some of the negative aspects of its gross (47.6% Friday share of opening weekend, 25.9% Friday to Saturday drop, 80.4% second weekend drop, 62.4% of its final gross coming on the first weekend).

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates:

Nightmare on Elm Street, $15.8M
How to Train Your Dragon, $2.5M
Date Night, $2.4M
Back Up Plan, $2.4M
The Losers, $1.9M
Furry Vengeance, $1.7M

Wow. What an OW Nightmare is heading for.

[J.I.]

Well a $35 million weekend means that it will probably have to crawl over $60 million, so its not very impressive.

[W]

I guess Brendan Fraser can't open everything.

[Buscemi]

$16 million opening day is somewhat disappointing for A Nightmare On Elm Street. Friday the 13th had a $19 million opening day. But then again, Friday the 13th was better received.

[Shrykespeare]

Sunday Estimates:

Top 5
5 points - Nightmare on Elm Street, $32.2M
4 points - How to Train Your Dragon, $10.8M
3 points - Date Night, $7.6M
2 points - The Back-Up Plan, $7.2M
1 point - Furry Vengeance, $6.5M

How about "Date Night"? That's 13 Top 5 points, including #3 three straight weeks. And it's not even over $75M yet!


PTA
5 points - Please Give
4 points - Nightmare on Elm Street
3 points - How to Train Your Dragon
2 points - Date Night
1 point - The Back-Up Plan

No word yet on The Good Heart or Mercy. Since HTTYD only had a PTA of 3,160, it probably wouldn't take much for either of these films to beat it.


User Ratings:

Nightmare - 6.2
Furry - 2.6
Please Give - 6.5
Good Heart - 7.4
Mercy - 7.5

[Buscemi]

Comparing A Nightmare On Elm Street to Friday the 13th on their opening weekends:

Opening Weekend:
A Nightmare On Elm Street: $32.2 million
Friday the 13th: $40.6 million

Friday Share Of Opening Weekend:
A Nightmare On Elm Street: 49.2%
Friday the 13th: 47.6%

Friday to Saturday Drop:
A NIghtmare On Elm Street: 33.3%
Friday the 13th: 25.9%

Also, Friday the 13th managed a higher per-theatre average ($13,066 vs. $9,665).

[numbersix]

By the way, Boosch, I have to give you major props. You drew my attention to Please Give and the PTA performance of the director, and because of that I stuck it on a few of my slates. So thanks for that!

[donnie]

Nice numbers... Pretty much what I expected/hoped. No IMDb rating yet, but I expected a 7.0 before and now am expecting a 4.0. What happens in ultimate leagues if there isn't an IMDb rating by the end of the weekend for the FEB-APR leagues? I'm sure there will be, I'm just wondering.

In this case we should wait for updates until the rating appears or we could apply a fair "6".