Walleye's Weekly Winners - 8/21, 8/23

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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Walleye's Weekly Winners - 8/21, 8/23

Post by Walleye413 »

To quote the great Colin Mochrie - “That was crap!” Our summer of lameness continued this past weekend when nearly everything underperformed - Again! By nearly I mean Good Boys had the highest opening of any comedy for 2019. Yeah, I wish that was a joke but it’s real. The Filthy-mouthed Sixth graders with a heart cussed their way to 21.4 million - quite a respectable number all things considered. But 21 million for a top comedy? Remember when The Hangover made that in a day? Other than that, nothing did well at the old Cineplex. Hobbs and Shas won’t crack 175 million, Teen Dora and the Birds of Angryness might not combine for 100 million. Spiderman re-releasing over Labor Day weekend with 4 minutes of new footage might be the most exciting thing to happen to movies in the month of August!

But - there is still a game to win and if you’re brave there is one, yes one, movie to add to your slates this weekend. Read on, dear friends, to make the wiser choice. Or risk falling into the oblivion 47 meters down.

Wide releases begin early this week with Ready or Not offering a clever take on the struggles of marriage. Samara Weaving leads a cast of “Hey, that’s the guy/girl from. . .” in this thriller about surviving the first night marriage. And don’t get all dirty minded on me - I mean really surviving as the family goes a hunting for the new bride is some bizarro family tradition. Again, it’s a pretty clever idea and at 95 minutes is probably just the right length to keep this premise going. But it’s coming out in 2300 theatres on a Wednesday. For game purposes this is a dud. If you’ve really got a few bucks burning a hole in your slate pocket you can spend them elsewhere.

On Friday we get the real wide release of the week which screams studio dump. Gerard Butler caps the trilogy you didn’t know you needed with Angel has Fallen. This time, Butler’s secret service agent is framed for an assassination attempt on the president. Honestly this whole movie has been done before - the framing, the Air Force One aspect, even up to and including having Morgan Freeman as president. Ready or Not gets points for creativity. Angel has Fallen gets none. And it will bomb, even in a time when there’s no real competition for this. People will stay home and watch America Ninja Warrior or Netflix instead. Stay away from this falling hunk o junk.

Overcomer is our first potential wildcard of the weekend. You can dislike the Kendrick brothers all you want - but they have one of the most loyal followings in the Christian movie market. Their worst film was the one that actually starred Kirk Cameron, they seem to do better with no stars and a simple uplifting message. At 1700 theatres can this actually win the weekend? Maybe. I’ve actually seen less advertising for this than their previous films, and I live in this world. So I’m a little skeptical on this one myself. But we have all learned to doubt the Kendricks at our own peril. If Overcomer makes 50 million and nets you 8 Top 5 and some PTA points I wouldn’t be shocked at all. But it could do half that and then you’ll all be blaming me and nobody wants that.

On the specialty side of things I think you’ve got one winner but I’m really biased this week. Vita & Virginia was finished about a year ago and is getting released with no fanfare in late August. A vote of no confidence, if I’ve ever seen one Gemma Arterton is one of my favorite actresses who is in small or terrible movies. This one seems to fit that bill perhaps on both accounts. It’s the love story of said people in the title - a great premise that was turned into a snoozer of a movie. I’m not sure why this movie didn’t work but stay away from it. Bad IMDB score, no PTA points, nothing to see here, move along. Move along.

Brittany runs a Marathon probably won’t do as well as it could have, but it’s actually a great movie (by great I mean positive and encouraging - no idea if it’s actually great.) For anyone who has ever lost their way in life and then found their footing by trying for some pretty audacious goal - Brittany runs for you. Jillian Bell literally transforms before your eyes (losing 40 pounds throughout the course of filming) and gives her all to this true story. Amazon knows how to market a movie, so watch the theatre count on this one. I don’t think it’ll do The Big Sick numbers, but it could score you well in these dog days of August. Think about it.

But as for me and my house, we’re banking on something as unstable as a Fiddler - on a roof! I pretend to know things about movies but my real love is Musical Theatre. And this week we get a documentary on one of the greats - Fiddler on a Roof. If you’ve never seen the musical - shame! See the next production near you, the music is quite incredible (If I were a Rich man, Sunrise - Sunset, Tradition!) and the story connects no matter your background. This doc gets much of the main players from the original Broadway show, the movie, subsequent revivals, and other Musical Theatre nerds to talk about the enduring impact of a musical set amongst Russain Jews being thrown out of their village. It’s all about theatre count here, so if this opens in just New York and L.A. this should win the week for PTA. I haven’t been this excited about a Musical Doc since Every Little Step!

Alright that’s all for me this week. Join us next week as Trans reviews, Playmobil (oops, nope) Well, I’m sure Trans will be entertaining all the same.

Top 5
Good Boys
Overcomer
Hobbs and Show
The Lion King
Angel has Fallen

PTA
Fiddler
Jay
Brittany
Overcomer
Vita and Virginia

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 8/21, 8/23

Post by Buscemi2 »

The Overcomer trailer was attached to Into the Spider-Verse, of all things. For a film like this, Sony doesn't need to do traditional marketing. All they need to do it to tell churches that a new Kendrick Brothers movie is coming out. Everything else is gravy.

I'm going to say $17 million opening weekend, with 80% of that coming from regular churchgoers.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 8/21, 8/23

Post by Buscemi2 »

Ready or Not is looking at a $1.5 million opening day in 2,818 theatres. It will be interesting to see the Cinemascore on this one.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 8/21, 8/23

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Not sure if Overcomer will make 17m but it's certainly being underestimated by most. Should come close to 10m and make around 40m in total.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 8/21, 8/23

Post by Buscemi2 »

I'm going by how well War Room did. $68 million gross and its opening weekend had a PTA just over $10,000.

The legs won't be as good but it should have $50 million in the tank by the time it finishes.

As for some of the other movies, anyone else feel that Brittany Runs a Marathon might be the exact same film as Run Fatboy Run? Sure, Brittany doesn't have the custody battle subplot but it feels like we've seen this movie before.

Also, Playmobil got pushed to December.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 8/21, 8/23

Post by numbersix »

Buscemi2 wrote:I'm going by how well War Room did. $68 million gross and its opening weekend had a PTA just over $10,000.
True, but a rise in theatre count usually results in a lower theatre average.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 8/21, 8/23

Post by transformers2 »

The sports elements of Overcomer make me leery about its ability to approach War Room's totals. For some reason, Christian movies centered around sports seem to cap out at $30 mil or so. Even with the Kendrick Brothers sizable fanbase, I wouldn't be surprised if Overcomer followed suit.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 8/21, 8/23

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater Counts:

Angel Has Fallen - 3,286
Overcomer - 1,723
Fiddler: A Miracle of Miracles - 7
Brittany Runs a Marathon - 5



Next week:

Ready or Not - 2,855




Celebrity birthdays:

Clarence Williams III turned 80 on 8/21
Hayden Panettiere turned 30 on 8/21
Dakota Goyo turned 20 on 8/22
Shelley Long turns 70 on 8/23
Rick Springfield turns 70 on 8/23
Gene Simmons turns 70 on 8/25
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 8/21, 8/23

Post by Buscemi2 »

Cinemascores:

Overcomer: A+
Angel Has Fallen: A-
Ready or Not (polled Wednesday): B+
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 8/21, 8/23

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Angel Has Fallen, $7.9M
Good Boys, $3.4M
Overcomer, $3.0M
Ready or Not, $2.4M
The Lion King, $2.2M
Hobbs & Shaw, $2.1M
Scary Stories, $1.7M
Angry Birds 2, $1.7M
Once Upon a Time, $1.4M
Dora, $1.3M
47 Meters Down, $1.1M




Weekend Projections:

Angel Has Fallen, $20.5M
Good Boys, $10.8M
The Lion King, $8.7M
Overcomer, $8.2M
Hobbs & Shaw, $7.8M
Ready or Not, $7.4M
Angry Birds 2, $6.6M
Scary Stories, $6.2M
Dora, $5.5M
Once Upon a Time, $5.2M
47 Meters Down, $3.9M
Peanut Butter Falcon, $3.2M
Art of Racing, $2.1M
Blinded By the Light, $2.0M
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 8/21, 8/23

Post by Buscemi2 »

I will never understand the popularity of the Mike Banning series. How are these any different from those Vince Flynn books that CBS tried to make a film series a few years back?
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 8/21, 8/23

Post by W »

Buscemi2 wrote:I will never understand the popularity of the Mike Banning series. How are these any different from those Vince Flynn books that CBS tried to make a film series a few years back?
I watched Angel Has Fallen because it was the one in Dolby this week. It wasn’t good, but it was fun that way. The crowd seemed to be the lowest common denominator: a grandma that kept yelling it was too loud, family that kept yelling at the screen, younger family that brought their 3 year old to the violent/loud Dolby movie... and those were just the ones on both sides of me and directly behind me.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 8/21, 8/23

Post by Buscemi2 »

So it's a modern-day grindhouse movie then.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 8/21, 8/23

Post by W »

If it includes people that kept CSI, NCIS, and Law & Order on the air for 20+ years.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 8/21, 8/23

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CSI and NCIS are on the old people's network (CBS). Meanwhile, there are some people who really love SVU that aren't old.
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