SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/13-16

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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/13-16

Post by numbersix »

Last weekend was a veritable battle royale of new releases, with five films duking it out for the top spot. And like the adults of Kinji Fukasaku’s 2000 classic they all failed, with Hobbs and Shaw holding relatively well in its second weekend. Impressive for a Fast and Furious flick. Only Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark performed above expectations, making a jolt below $21m to nab #2. The rest all were disappointments, particularly the live-action adaptation of the hugely popular kids TV series, Dora and the Lost City of Gold. Perhaps aging up the 7 year old to a tween wasn’t the best move. So with a jam-packed weekend, what a sensible thought to ease up and release only 5 more films to the uninterested public. And unlike last weekend, this weekend is going to be super-tight.




The Angry Birds Movie 2 (Sony) is the sequel to the surprise hit adaptation of the online game. The plot has something to do with the birds teaming up with the pigs. It’s all a load of nonsense. But the first film earned over $107m domestic. Will this film fare as well? Probably not. Not only is this film coming out in the aftermath of the still-strong The Lion King and Dora, but its performance in overseas territories is under half what its predecessor earned. Expect this film to earn under $60m. That’s not great for $15 in BO, and even worse for Ultimate games is that these birds are swooping in today, on Tuesday, so any opening weekend potential is choked as it spreads its cash wings. That means not enough Top 5 or PTA points to warrant $15 in Ultimate either.




Blinded by the Light (Warner Bros) has to be the least likely wide release in some time. This British drama is directed by Gurinder Chadha (Bend it like Beckham) and is an 80s set story about a Pakistani immigrant teen who discovers the wonders of The Boss. With no stars and the social realist England setting, it’s pretty surprising to see this film immediately go wide, rather than platform from a limited opening. Perhaps Warner are obliged as part of their excessive purchase of the film in Sundance. Sadly, I’ve no Reason to Believe this is going to perform particularly well. A $5m opening and a $14m cume is as optimistic as I’m getting, making it a dud in both leagues.




Good Boys is Universal’s answer to Booksmart. Which was an answer to Superbad. So Good Boys is basically Superbad, although in this new, Seth Rogen-execed comedy the kids are 12 and even more clueless about girls as they try to retrieve a peeping drone and get embroiled in misadventures along the way. The film previewed in SXSW and received some mixed responses, the negative ones mostly fixated on how unoriginal the idea was. But general consensus has warmed a little (83% on RT, 55 on Metacritic). More importantly, this is the first pure comedy since Booksmart, so despite the celluloid logjam this weekend, it’s possible this could surprise. It may surpass the average age of its cast and end up making $40m, 3-5 Top 5 points, maybe a PTA point or two, and a low 6s IMDB score. That’s not bad in Ultimate (where it’s $9 or $10), although in BO you’ll need to have faith these boys can do better.




This week dregs up another sequel in the form of 47 Meters Down: Uncaged (Entertainment). The sharks are back, and this time it’s personal. Or something. The story revolves around a bunch of teens exploring a submerged Mayan city where a frenzy of sharks reside. One of them is voiced by Will Smith. The first film was a surprise hit for Entertainment Studios, earning $44m after an $11m opening. But the distributor has been suffering as of late, with a string of failures and endless delays. It’s unlikely this will save them, particularly with the amount of horror and thrillers on offer in cinemas. Expect a sub $10m opening and a cume under $30m. Not good enough for your $8/9.




Finally, there’s Where'd You Go Bernadette (United Artists), Richard Linklater’s adaptation of the best-selling Maria Semple novel. Cate Blanchett plays the eponymous hero, an agoraphobic mother who decides to reconnect with her creative side and go on an adventure. She probably eats, prays, and loves along the way. This film is certainly marketed towards older women, and with the failure of Poms and Late Night there’s an opportunity here for this film to surprise. And yet, amidst Annapurna worsening problems, UA have failed to deliver on more sure-fire projects. Expect this to do slightly better than Poms, maybe a $7m opening and a $20m cume. Again, it’s a no-deal for your slate.




The only limited release for this week is Aquerala (Sony Classics), a film about water. Yep, that’s it, it’s a documentary exploring the power of water, from trickles to full on hurricanes. But this is no damp squib; the doc screened in Venice, Sundance, SXSW, and other prestige festivals, earning strong reviews concerning the environmental message. This flick should earn plenty of PTA points this weekend and maybe next, so any fishy argument saying it’s not worth your $3 in Ultimate just doesn’t hold water.




Predictions for the weekend


1. Hobbs and Shaw- $13m
2. Angry Birds 2 - $12m (18m 6-day)
3. The Lion King - $12m
4. Good Boys - $12m
5. Scary Stories… - $9.5m

PTA: Aquarela, Peanut Butter Falcon, Good Boys, One Child Nation, Jay Myself

Next week finally gets a bit quieter on the wide-release front, with Walleye assessing Angel has Fallen, Overcome, and Ready or Not, along with limited releases Vita & Virginia, Brittany Runs a Marathon, and Fiddler: A Miracle of Miracles.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/1

Post by Shrykespeare »

Great column, Six. That 47MD bit had me laughing out loud.

Going to be out of the house for a few days (staycation!), so here's a look at this week's theater counts.


Angry Birds 2 (open now) - 3,869
Good Boys - 3,000
47 Meters Down: Uncaged - 2,850
Where'd You Go, Bernadette - 2,300
Blinded By the Light - 2,000




Celebrity birthdays:

George Hamilton turned 80 on 8/12 (and his tan turned 60)
Lennon Stella turned 20 on 8/13
Marcia Gay Harden turns 60 on 8/14

Me, your fearless leader, turns 50 on 8/17
Donnie Wahlberg, also turns 50 on 8/17 (That's right, I was born on the same day as one of the New Kids on the Block.)
Christian Slater turns 50 on 8/18
Edward Norton turns 50 on 8/18

Busy week!
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/1

Post by transformers2 »

Wasn't expecting to see a Shark Tale reference when I sat down to read this, but boy was it welcome :lol:
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/1

Post by Screen203 »

transformers2 wrote:Wasn't expecting to see a Shark Tale reference when I sat down to read this, but boy was it welcome :lol:
Shark Tale is one of the greatest fish mobster movies ever and NO ONE can take that from me!!!!
;)

As for the movies, I think that Uncaged (shouldn't it be called 94 Meters Down or something considering that there is no connection between the films besides Modine) will do less than that even. This is purely anecdotal, but everyone I know who has seen the first (me included) hated it. I think it will do less than late summer horror sequel underpeformers like Sinister 2.

Also, happy birthday to Shryke - you keep us all together and this website running :D
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/1

Post by Walleye413 »

That was the most clever thing I've read in a while. So many subtle references I had to go back and make sure I got them all. The whole thing was likely better than all the movies coming out this weekend!

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/1

Post by numbersix »

Walleye413 wrote:That was the most clever thing I've read in a while. So many subtle references I had to go back and make sure I got them all. The whole thing was likely better than all the movies coming out this weekend!
I'd say thanks but the films look so bad it doesn't mean much :D

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/1

Post by Walleye413 »

Fair Point :lol:

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/1

Post by Buscemi2 »

Cinemascores:

Blinded by the Light: A-
The Angry Birds Movie 2 (polled Tuesday): B+
Good Boys: B+
Where'd You Go, Bernadette: B
47 Meters Down: Uncaged: C+
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/1

Post by Screen203 »

I'm not sure where to put this, but...

Don't expect Luce to get many PTA points this weekend. The theaters in my area it's playing at (the biggest AMC in my area, and the only Landmark - the release here doesn't make that much sense considering Last Black Man In San Francisco didn't get here till a 100-200 theater expansion, and The Farewell never played at the Landmark for some reason) have only put it on one screen, which most prestige releases get at least two...
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/1

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Good Boys, $8.3M
Hobbs & Shaw, $3.8M
The Lion King, $3.2M
47 Meters Down, $3.1M
Scary Stories, $3.0M
Angry Birds 2, $2.7M
Dora, $2.2M
Once Upon a Time, $2.1M
Blinded by the Light, $1.4M
Art of Racing, $1.3M
Where'd You Go, $1.2M



Weekend Projections

Good Boys, $20.4M
Hobbs & Shaw, $13.7M
Lion King, $11.7M
Scary Stories, $9.9M
Angry Birds 2, $9.0M ($14.7M 6-days)
Dora, $8.5M
47 Meters Down, $8.1M
Once Upon a Time, $7.5M
Art of Racing, $4.5M
Blinded By the Light, $4.1M
Where'd You Go, $3.6M
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/1

Post by Buscemi2 »

I was not expecting that number on Good Boys. I felt the mixed word at SXSW would hurt it and make Jacob Tremblay question why he agreed to do it.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/1

Post by Screen203 »

Buscemi2 wrote:I was not expecting that number on Good Boys. I felt the mixed word at SXSW would hurt it and make Jacob Tremblay question why he agreed to do it.
It's doing those numbers because the marketing has sold it as Superbad 2. If audiences reflect this, I could see the legs being short.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/1

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Good Boys, $21.0M
4 points - Hobbs & Shaw, $14.1M
3 points - The Lion King, $11.9M
2 points - The Angry Birds Movie 2, $10.5M ($16.2M 6-day)
1 point - Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, $10.0M
47 Meters Down: Uncaged, $9.0M
Dora and the Lost City of Gold, $8.5M
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, $7.6M
Blinded By the Light, $4.4M
The Art of the Racing in the Rain, $4.4M



PTA:
5 points - Jay Myself
4 points - Good Boys
3 points - Aquarela
2 points - Hobbs & Shaw
1 point - After the Wedding

Jay Myself is becoming a PTA juggernaut!!




Lion King is creeping up on $500M. Should hit it by mid-week.

Toy Story 4 is right around $425M, Spider-Man: Far From Home at $375M. Both have about $5-$10M left in the tank, I'm guessing.

Hobbs & Shaw looks destined for about $160-$170M.

Once Upon a Time will probably top out around $130M, which would put it at #2 on the highest grossing QT film of all time.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/1

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Good Boys, $21.4M (5)
4 points - Hobbs & Shaw, $14.2M (14)
3 points - The Lion King, $12.3M (20)
2 points - The Angry Birds Movie 2, $10.4M ($16.1M 6-day) (2)
1 point - Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, $10.0M (5)
Dora and the Lost City of Gold, $8.6M
47 Meters Down: Uncaged, $8.4M
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, $7.7M
The Art of the Racing in the Rain, $4.6M
Blinded By the Light, $4.3M




PTA:
5 points - Jay Myself, $6,775 (13)
4 points - Good Boys, $6,680 (4)
3 points - The Peanut Butter Falcon, $5,871 (8)
2 points - Aquarela, $4,951 (2)
1 point - Hobbs & Shaw, $3,774 (4)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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