Down the Rabbit Hole/Six Tips - The Films of August 9th-11th

[Buscemi2]

This week, we are going to be doing a new version of the column that has never been done before. Two columnists will be doing a collaborative effort, one person doing the wide releases and another doing the limited releases. Think Siskel & Ebert without the opening where Six and I walk around Chicago on our way to the studio. There’s no money in the budget for that but Chicago’s a nice place and I’d be all for that kind of shoot.

Anyway, I will be handling the wide releases (five of them) while Six takes on the week’s limited releases (four of them). I’m sure we will have conflicting views on the week’s films but we’ll save that for the comments.

Last Week

Hobbs & Shaw took the weekend with a large if underwhelming $60 million take. Second was The Lion King, roaring up another $38.5 million weekend ($431.2 million total). Third was Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, dropping 51% from last week to $20 million. Still chugging along in fourth was Spider-Man: Far from Home, taking in another $7.9 million ($360.5 million total). And rounding out the top five was Toy Story 4, cashing in $7.3 million more ($410.2 million total).

On the PTA side, Luce took the crown with a $26,597. Second was the art biopic Jay Myself, making $19,809 in a single New York theatre. Hobbs & Shaw, The Lion King, and The Farewell took the remaining spots.

This Week

There’s “Gold” in Them Thar Hills

First of the wide releases is Dora and the Lost City of Gold (Paramount). In 2000, Nickelodeon premiered the TV show Dora the Explorer as part of their Nick Jr. lineup. The adventures of a seven year-old girl, her pet monkey, and a talking map traveling across different places while thwarting the plans of a wily fox quickly became one of Nickelodeon’s biggest shows and the source of much praise as well as scorn (and some off-color jokes on the Internet involving doing unsavory things to an elementary school kid). It even spawned a spinoff, Go, Diego, Go!.

Nineteen years later, we get a theatrical sequel to the series. Dora, now a teenager, must leave the jungle and blend into modern society by staying with Diego’s family and attending high school. During a field trip, Dora and some fellow students are kidnapped and sent back to the jungle. Joined with a fellow adventurer (Eugenio Derbez), Dora finds out that her parents are in danger while searching for a lost Inca civilization and now must save them from their kidnappers. Dora is played by newcomer Isabella Moner, while supporting roles are filled by Michael Pena, Eva Longoria, Teumera Morrison, and Adriana Barraza, and Danny Trejo and Benicio del Toro lend their voices to the monkey and fox, respectively.

I’m quite unsure about this one. On one hand, you have a name brand and a name actor in Derbez in a major supporting role. On the other hand, does Dora the Explorer lend itself well to a theatrical property? Also, making it a sequel to the show rather than a straight adaptation could lock out anyone not familiar with the show.

Box Office Potential: despite mixed reviews, Paramount’s marketing campaign has been quite strong. But with The Lion King still doing well, Dora does have some difficulty in breaking out. At best, it could be a minor success. $19 million opening, $57 million finish.

Localized Entirely Within Your “Kitchen”

Next on the docket is The Kitchen (Warner Bros./New Line), an adaptation of a comic book series from the recently-closed Vertigo division of DC Comics. The directorial debut of Oscar-nominated screenwriter Andrea Berloff (Straight Outta Compton, World Trade Center, Blood Father), this 1970’s-set thriller focuses on three wives (Melissa McCarthy, Tiffany Haddish, Elisabeth Moss) of convicted Irish mobsters who after finding that their husbands’ jail sentences have left them in a bad financial position, decide to use their street smarts and Mafia connections to play their own game and take a slice of the New York crime pie. And they are pretty good at it. But as their rise on the scene begins, other gangs hope to take them out and keep crime a man’s game. Also starring are Domhnall Gleeson, Margo Martindale, Common, and James Badge Dale.

In Hollywood’s constant race to become more diverse in its offerings, they often seem to fighting a losing battle, usually releasing dated approaches made by men in hopes of attracting female audiences. The Kitchen is different, featuring three female leads in a film written and directed by a woman. However, Warner Bros. doesn’t seem to be showing much enthusiasm for this one, as there hasn’t been much fanfare for this crime drama, choosing instead to focus its marketing muscle on next month’s It: Chapter 2 and October’s Joker. In addition, the recent closing of Vertigo and McCarthy’s lesser box office prowess on serious films make this a difficult financial prospect.

Box Office Potential: in other months, this would seem like a good mid-range title. However, the studio’s indifference make the potential rather iffy. $8 million opening, $22 million finish.

Set Fire to the “Rain”

Also speeding into theatres is The Art of Racing in the Rain (Disney/Fox), the latest movie depicting man’s love for dogs. Kevin Costner voices Enzo, a dog whose companion is a driver specializing in road racing (think Le Mans-type racing). The film focuses on how dogs see their human owners and the roles pets play in families. There’s also racing in the story. Milo Ventimiglia and Amanda Seyfried play Enzo’s owners while Kathy Baker, Martin Donovan, and Gary Cole also appear. Actor (McDreamy!) and racing enthusiast Patrick Dempsey is one of the film’s producers.

This is the first Fox title to have its release entirely handled by Disney (previous titles Breakthrough, Dark Phoenix, and Stuber were partially handled by now-former Fox people) and Disney seems to have handled it a bit better than other inherited titles. However, it’s not going to be attracting the type of audience that brought into box office glory Aladdin, Toy Story 4, or The Lion King. In addition, there have been a lot of dog movies lately. The W. Bruce Cameron adaptations seem to have run their course and the promotion really doesn’t seem to distance itself away from those overly-sappy films. The film like this one needs a hook to set it apart but it doesn’t seem to have one.

Box Office Potential: with too much competition now and in the next few weeks, this puppy might not have enough to pull away from the pack. $7 million opening, $19 million finish.

The “Dark” Side of the Moon

Next to last on the wide release list is Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark (Lionsgate/CBS), a clone of the recent Goosebumps movies produced by Guillermo del Toro. Based on the heavily banned from school libraries young adult anthologies, this adaptation seems to be pushing the boundaries of what’s acceptable to the intended children audience and what older teenagers call horror. The premise focuses on a girl in 1968 who uses the rumors of curses focused around her family as well as her own tortured past and turns them into stories that soon come to life when others around her discover the secrets that lurk within. The cast is mainly newcomers and TV actors, the biggest name being Dean Norris.

Despite the marketing campaign promising another del Toro festival of the macabre, he really didn’t have all that much to do with the film. And the end result seems to suggest a film that has no idea what audience it’s intended for. It looks much too scary for children and not violent enough for the gorehounds who think they know horror but only grade movies based on blood and boobs. Maybe it’s yet another movie made solely for the shrinking crowd of 80’s nostalgia (even though the film is set in the 60’s) freaks with narrow-minded viewpoints of quality. This is one baffling film.

Box Office Potential: without the child-like appeal of Goosebumps or the compelling storyline and graphic content of It, I think Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark will struggle to find an audience despite Lionsgate’s large marketing campaign (which included a Super Bowl ad). $10 million opening, $22 million finish.

Take it to the “Banks”

Last of the wide titles is Brian Banks (Bleecker Street), Tom Shadyac’s first film since 2010’s I Am and his first narrative film since 2007’s Evan Almighty. Aldis Hodge stars as the titular character, a high school football star who was wrongly accused of rape at sixteen and spent the next eleven years in prison or on parole. Working with the California Innocence Project, Banks fought for his freedom and to get the truth out in the open. In the process, Banks also sought to keep his dream of NFL glory alive. Greg Kinnear, Sherri Shepherd, and Morgan Freeman (in an uncredited cameo) also appear.

What would seem like a small limited release is actually getting 1,500 theatres, possibly to time it with the forthcoming football season. And against four other wide releases, plus the wide expansion of The Farewell, Brian Banks feels like the odd movie out this weekend. I have to wonder if this film would have done better in a dead weekend or during a time to try and sell it as a fringe awards contender. I’m not sure of the reasoning to open this weekend.

Box Office Potential: much like the real Brian Banks, the film is going to be a victim but not of a crime they didn’t commit but rather of too much product. $2.5 million opening, $6.5 million finish.

And now I’m going to hand it off to Six. Take it away.

[numbersix]

Thanks Boosch, and welcome to a half of my Six Tips (Three Tips???) as I take a look at the four limited releases on offer. At a glance when it comes to Ultimate (forget BO) two seem like winners and two are more like Michael Winner.




First up is Ode to Joy (IFC), a comedy from the director of the Arthur remake. I’ll give you a moment to shudder before I move on… This film, based on a podcast episode, concerns a man with a rare condition who loses control of his body whenever he feels strong emotions. So guess what happens when he meets the Manic-Pixie-Dream-Girl of his… well… dreams? The film stars Martin Freeman and Morena Baccarin. Coming out on 2 screens this may seem like a good option, but there are no reviews, even though the film played in the not-what-it-used-to-be Edinburgh Film Festival last month. Buzz is minimal on this film, so don’t expect many PTA points, nor a particularly high IMDB score.




One Child Nation (Amazon) is a much better choice. This doc deals with China’s draconian one-child law in which families were forced to stick to only children in what is the most extreme population planning known to history. The doc opened in Sundance and won the Grand Jury prize, and a few more along the way. Reviews have been strong, and presumably Amazon are opting for the 4/5 theatre opening. So expect 4-5 PTA points this weekend and a few more next. And unless China plan some Russian-style hacking, its IMDB score should remain in the 7s, so it’s very much worth your $3 in Ultimate.




After the Wedding sounds like another must-buy. It’s a remake of the Susanne Bier classic, it opened in Sundance, its being released by Sony Classics, and it stars Julianne Moore and Michelle Williams. But hold your horses, buck, look a little deeper. This story, about an orphanage worker who goes to visit a prospective billionaire backer, is not working if you ask the critics, with the film being 50% rotten on RT and 59 on Metacritic. Not enough to break through. If the wide releases are week then you might see a few PTA points this weekend, but don’t count on this Wedding lasting.




Finally, we come to The Peanut Butter Falcon (Roadside Attractions), a sweet drama about a young man with Down Syndrome who goes on a Twain-esque journey. Along the way he encounters an array of friends and misfits, some of which are played by Shia LaBeouf, Dakota Johnson, and Thomas Hayden Church. This is the perfect film for a Middle-Class city audience, so expect this to perform incredibly well as long as Roadside expand slowly (which they don’t always do). Reviews are strong (100% RT), and the SXSW Audience Award doesn’t hurt either. This will battle One Child Nation for the PTA top-spot, and earn more next week too. It might even be worth the $1 in BO.


Weekend PTA Predictions: One Child Nation, The Peanut Butter Falcon, Luce, Hobbs and Shaw, After the Wedding.

And next week I'm back to take on another logjam of 5 wide releases (The Angry Birds Movie 2, Blinded By the Light, Good Boys, 47 Meters Down: Uncaged, Where'd You Go Bernadette) and limited opener Aquarela

[Buscemi2]

That's Dakota Johnson, six.

And I realized that I forgot to post my Top 5 predictions.

Hobbs & Shaw, The Lion King, Dora and the Lost City of Gold, Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, The Kitchen

[numbersix]

That's Dakota Johnson, six.

Oh. Ick.

Changed.

[Buscemi2]

Fanning made for a scary Squeaky Fromme. I wouldn't be surprised to see her go the Bryce Dallas Howard route and play more antagonists.

[Screen203]

I don't think Brian Banks is getting that many theaters. Reviews are mixed and the theaters near me (A lot of the theaters near me skew heavily towards African-American audiences) don't seem to be playing it. It's not going to do much either way, but thought I should note it.

I could see a breakout for Scary Stories, on the other hand. The market is open for a horror film, it has the 80s/90s nostalgia factor (even though it's set in the 60's) Del Toro probably has more recognition from the mainstream after The Shape of Water, and I think it could play off of the Stranger Things/IT popularity. Wouldn't be surprised to see an opening in the mid-to-high teens.

[Shrykespeare]

Theater counts:

Dora and the Lost City of Gold - 3,735
Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark - 3,135
The Art of Racing in the Rain - 2,765
The Kitchen - 2,745
Brian Banks - 1,240
The Peanut Butter Falcon - 17
After the Wedding - 5
Ode to Joy - 2
One Child Nation - 2




Next week:

The Angry Birds Movie 2 - 3,500
Good Boys - 3,000+
47 Meters Down: Uncaged - 2,500+
Where'd You Do, Bernadette - 2,300+
Blinded By the Light - 2,000+





Celebrity birthdays:

Keith Carradine turned 70 on 8/8
Rosanna Arquette turns 60 on 8/10
Brenton Thwaites turns 30 on 8/10

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascores:

Dora and the Lost City of Gold: A
The Art of Racing in the Rain: A-
The Kitchen: B- (I expected a worse score as a result of the rumors of Warner Bros. taking the film away from the director and heavily editing it)
Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark: C (it looks like this will be more frontloaded than expected)

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Hobbs & Shaw, $25.4M
4 points - Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, $20.8M
3 points - The Lion King, $20.0M
2 points - Dora and the Lost City of Gold, $17.0M
1 point - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, $11.6M
The Art of Racing in the Rain, $8.1M
The Kitchen, $5.5M
Spider-Man: Far From Home, $5.3M
Toy Story 4, $4.4M
The Farewell, 2.2M
Brian Banks, $2.1M



PTA:
5 points - The Peanut Butter Falcon, $12.1K
4 points - Jay Myself, $11.4K
3 points - After the Wedding, $11.4K
2 points - One Child Nation, $11.1K
1 point - Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, $6.6K

VERY close!

[W]

8 PTA points for something I took because I needed multiple $2 titles. If we can only get it up from a 6.0... BRB, creating fifty fake IMDb accounts for no reason at all...

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Hobbs & Shaw, $25.3M (10)
4 points - Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, $20.9M (4)
3 points - The Lion King, $20.2M (17)
2 points - Dora and the Lost City of Gold, $17.4M (2)
1 point - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, $11.7M (8)
The Art of Racing in the Rain, $8.1M
The Kitchen, $5.5M
Spider-Man: Far From Home, $5.3M
Toy Story 4, $4.5M
Brian Banks, $2.2M



PTA:
5 points - The Peanut Butter Falcon, $12,047 (5)
4 points - Jay Myself, $10,828 (8)
3 points - One Child Nation, $10,262 (3)
2 points - After the Wedding, $10,53 (2)
1 point - Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, $6,672 (1)

Ode to Joy apparently did not report...