Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 2nd-4th

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Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 2nd-4th

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“My name is Turkish. Funny name for an Englishman, I know. My parents to be were on the same plane when it crashed. That's how they met. They named me after the name of the plane. Not many people are named after a plane crash.” – Turkish, Snatch (2000)

“You’re welcome. And thank you.” – Maui, Moana (2016)

On this light weekend for the big guns, we will cover a single spinoff to a massively successful franchise plus four limited releases.

Last Week

The Lion King held its own against the heavily-hyped Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, as the King of Pride Rock slayed Charles Manson, $76.6 million to $41.1 million. The latter’s B Cinemascore seems to suggest it will be heavily frontloaded, something The Lion King might have proved as the result of its 60% second weekend drop. But both have been very lucrative for their studios so in the end, it just doesn’t matter. The rest of the top five was Spider-Man: Far from Home, Toy Story 4, and Crawl.

On the PTA side of things, it was The Lion King, The Farewell, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Mike Wallace is Here, and Spider-Man: Far from Home. The best of the openers was Honeyland, a bee-keeping documentary that was not in the game.

This Week

Think “Fast and Furious”

The only game in town for the wide openers is Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw (Universal), the latest excuse in mindless car porn for fourteen year-old boys. In what is nothing more than a repeat of one of the plots of 2015’s Furious 7, the rivals Luke Hobbs (Dwayne Johnson) and Deckard Shaw (Jason Statham) have to team up again to save the world from a mad scientist (in a plot that seems lifted from the universally panned but somehow popular Venom) who has become a supervillain who possesses a virus that can destroy the world. Hobbs and Shaw use their skills and many vehicles, plus Hobbs’ car-obsessed family for help, to fight back. Idris Elba, Vanessa Kirby, Helen Mirren, Cliff Curtis, and Roman Reigns co-star.

I will never understand why these movies are so popular. Back in 2001, the original film was sold on how it had these spectacular racing scenes and how no other film was like it. I finally saw the film on video and found there was almost no racing, just a boring detective plot lifted from Point Break and Paul Walker losing his slip after one race. But everyone else fell for the hype and here we are (By the way, never complain about a movie sucking because it wasn’t like the trailer. You fell for the marketing for The Fast and the Furious hook, line, and sinker.). Anyway, even with the disappointing numbers of The Fate of the Furious, Universal chose to stay the course as Chris Morgan, credited as the creator of these two characters, is back on as screenwriter (with Drew Pearce, director of the dreadful “The Purge with doctors” Hotel Artemis). Directing is John Wick producer (and uncredited co-director on the first film) David Leitch, who brought on some of that series’ behind-the-camera talent for this one.

Tracking has been high for this film but it feels like we’ve all seen it before. It’s not going to come close to Furious 7. It might not even pass The Fate of the Furious. But it’s not going to flop like Tokyo Drift (the first installment Morgan wrote and basically the blueprint for the franchise’s later focus) did. I’m thinking a result between 2 Fast 2 Furious (considered the creative lowpoint of the series by some) and Fate.

Box Office Potential: It will open well with little competition but I feel fatigue of the series and Dwayne Johnson himself will set in. $65 million opening, $175 million finish.

Arthouse Class 101

This week, we are taken to school with four new titles. No sleeping in class.

Jay Myself (opens Wednesday) (Oscilloscope) – a documentary on photographer Jay Maisel, the film focuses on his career and the $55 million sale of his longtime Manhattan home in 2015, which was given the name The Bank due to its history as the Germania Bank Building before becoming the stately generational home of the Maisel family.

The documentary, while sounding interesting, has a limited audience. Outside of New York, is there going to be much interest in Maisel or the Germania Bank Building? In addition, the Wednesday opening will hurt some of its total this weekend.

1-2 PTA points and a five-figure box office total.

Luce (Neon) – a well-received thriller at Sundance, this film stars Kevin Harrison Jr. as a child soldier who is adopted by a sympathetic American couple (Naomi Watts and Tim Roth) and in a normal life, becomes a star high school athlete and pupil. However, his new outlook is about to come crashing down when he is accused by a teacher (Octavia Spencer) of trying to defend the idea of violence in an essay. Soon, a psychological war between teacher and student begins over what is really going on. Is Luce really who he says he is or could his teacher knows something no one else wants to know?

Reviews have been positive (81 on Metacritic, a big step up from the director’s previous film, The Cloverfield Paradox) and its combination of a suspenseful premise and a name cast makes this a big contender to break out. However, could the film be too political for a mainstream audience? BlacKkKlansman last summer grossed $45 million but that was sold as a wider-appealed film with bigger names behind the camera. Also, we already got one Octavia Spencer-led thriller this summer with Ma, which disappointed with critics and wasn’t the next big Blumhouse breakout as hoped.

The total damage should be around 6-10 PTA points and a $3-4 million gross.

Piranhas (Music Box) – remember Gomorrah, the Matteo Gorrone film that was popular enough to spawn a TV show for Sundance? Well, this film also takes place in Naples and focuses on a group of young people who are connected with the Mafia. But rather than being the anthology-like story of different people and their roles in the Mafia, this seems to be more of a straight-up action film with teenagers armed to the teeth and satisfying their bloodlust. It did win an award at Berlin, though so I guess it’s a bit classier than it sounds.

Reviews are mixed (56 on Metacritic) and Music Box has struggled to have any major hits in the past several years (especially since much of their brain trust went over to Greenwich and released some hits such as Free Solo and Echo in the Canyon). The label will try their hardest to entice those who like Mafia-themed movies to come but I don’t see it.

Same as Jay Myself above.

Them That Follow (1091 Media) – this Southern religious thriller has been delayed a few times but the company formerly known as The Orchard thinks they’ve struck gold with this one after the recent Oscar win of co-star Olivia Colman. Set in Appalachia, the film focuses on serpent handlers and their old Pentecostal ways in a society cut off from modern America. As the daughter of the leader of the church prepares for her forthcoming wedding, she discovers a deadly secret that could cause a ripple effect that will destroy the church. Walton Goggins, Alice Englert, Jim Gaffigan, Kaitlyn Dever, and Lewis Pullman star with Colman.

Critics have been indifferent to this one (53 on Metacritic) and the marketing seems to have downplayed leads Goggins and Englert to sell it around Colman and Dever (recently of the critically-acclaimed box office disappointment Booksmart). But I don’t expect this campaign to improve any of its box office chances. Depending on if it opens in two theatres or 200, the film will be a flop, pure and simple.

Zero points and an abysmal box office take.

Box Office: Hobbs & Shaw, The Lion King, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Spider-Man: Far from Home, Toy Story 4
PTA: Luce, Hobbs & Shaw, The Lion King, Jay Myself, Piranhas


Next week, I will return in a collaboration with Six to handle a lovely bunch of releases. I will cover the wide releases, The Art of Racing in the Rain (Disney/Fox), Brian Banks (Bleecker Street), Dora and the Lost City of Gold (Paramount), The Kitchen (Warner Bros./New Line), and Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark (Lionsgate/CBS). Six will handle four limited releases, After the Wedding (Sony Pictures Classics), Ode to Joy (IFC), One Child Nation (Amazon), and The Peanut Butter Falcon (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions). IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT YOUR NAMES ARE! You walk around here interrupting The Rock? You, like you haven't seen the sun in 20 years? You, like you just stepped out of Oliver Twist? 'Please, sir? May I have some more advice, sir?' You want some advice? Here's The Rock's advice: Shut your mouth! What you want? What you want? How about what The Rock wants? The Rock wants you to go out there, take no prisoners, have no regrets, have no fear! Lay it all out on the line! Because if you don't do that, The Rock is gonna find your friend Mary Poppins. He's gonna take her umbrella. Yeah, he's gonna shine it up real nice. He's gonna turn that sonuvabitch sideways and stick it straight up your candy asses! There's your advice, straight out of... the Jabroni-beatin', pie-eatin', trail blazin', eyebrow raisin', entertaining the globe never hotter, talkin' to two rejects from Harry Potter!
Last edited by Buscemi2 on July 30th, 2019, 5:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 2nd-4th

Post by Chienfantome »

Piranhas is actually a great film. Don't know how it will fare in the US, but it's really in the Top 15 films I've seen this year I think.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 2nd-4th

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Theater counts:

Hobbs & Shaw - 4,253
Luce - 5



Next week:

Dora and the Lost City of Gold - 3,500
Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark - 3,000
The Art of Racing in the Rain - 2,800
The Kitchen - 2,700+
Brian Banks - 1,500
Ode to Joy - 2





Celebrity birthdays - two superheroes turn 40 this week!

Timothy Omundsen turned 50 on 7/29
Simon Baker turned 50 on 7/30
Joey King turned 20 on 7/30 (have you seen her lately? she's HOT!)
Jason Momoa turned 40 on 8/1
Evangeline Lilly turns 40 on 8/3
John C. McGinley turns 60 on 8/3
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 2nd-4th

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Haha I loved Fighting With My Family
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 2nd-4th

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Early numbers (via Deadline):

Hobbs & Shaw $22-22.5 million Friday/$55-57 million weekend
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 2nd-4th

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That’s a decent opening

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 2nd-4th

Post by W »

undeadmonkey wrote:That’s a decent opening
Nowhere near expectations ($75-90 M). May not make break even on its $200 M budget, probably will with how much China loves the franchise, though.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 2nd-4th

Post by Buscemi2 »

I recall seeing predictions going as high as $100 million. It seems like the franchise might have peaked with Paul Walker's death.

Anyway, Hobbs & Shaw had an A- Cinemascore. This seems to be average for the franchise (2 Fast 2 Furious, Tokyo Drift, and Fast & Furious all managed an A-, Fast Five, Fast & Furious, Furious 7, and The Fate of the Furious each got an A, while the original was a B+).
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 2nd-4th

Post by transformers2 »

W wrote:
undeadmonkey wrote:That’s a decent opening
Nowhere near expectations ($75-90 M). May not make break even on its $200 M budget, probably will with how much China loves the franchise, though.
While there was a couple of sources that had it tracking that high, the bulk of the industry tracking was in the $55-65 mil range (Universal was expecting a $60 mil opening, which would be dead-on if this morning's estimates hold). Deadline is reporting it needs $600 mil WW to break even, which it will most likely get.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 2nd-4th

Post by Buscemi2 »

I think the break even mark will be closer to $750 million worldwide, as there was a lot of marketing for this one. I feel this one has $900 million in the tank and should make a profit before post-theatrical markets come in.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 2nd-4th

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates:

Hobbs & Shaw, $23.7M
The Lion King, $11.1M
Once Upon a Time, $5.6M
Spider-Man, $2.2M
Toy Story 4, $2.1M




Weekend Projections:

Hobbs & Shaw, $64M
The Lion King, $38.3M
Once Upon a Time, $20.2M
Spider-Man, $7.7M
Toy Story 4, $7.3M
Yesterday, $2.4M
The Farewell, $2.3M
Crawl, $2.2M
Aladdin, $2M
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 2nd-4th

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Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Hobbs & Shaw, $60.8M
4 points - The Lion King, $38.2M
3 points - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, $20.0M
2 points - Spider-Man: Far From Home, $7.7M
1 point - Toy Story 4, $7.1M
Yesterday, $2.4M
The Farewell, $2.4M
Crawl, $2.1M
Aladdin, $2.0M
Annabelle Comes Home, $875M



PTA:
5 points - Luce
4 points - Jay Myself
3 points - Hobbs & Shaw
2 points - The Lion King
1 point - The Farewell

Kudos to W and Walleye, the only two player who will enjoy Jay Myself's four points!





Lion King hits $430M. $500M seems likely.

Toy Story 4 hits $410M and is finally petering out. $425M looks like the ceiling.

Spider-Man: Far From Home is now at $360M. $375M looks like the finish line.

Aladdin crawls over $350M. Its legs are just about spent.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 2nd-4th

Post by undeadmonkey »

I'm really happy with Aladdins numbers, makes up for Pikachu and dark phoenix

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 2nd-4th

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Yeah, Aladdin's had an amazing career.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: August 2nd-4th

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Hobbs & Shaw, $60.0M (5)
4 points - The Lion King, $38.5M (14)
3 points - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, $20.0M (7)
2 points - Spider-Man: Far From Home, $7.9M (19)
1 point - Toy Story 4, $7.3M (24)
Yesterday, $2.5M
The Farewell, $2.4M
Crawl, $2.2M
Aladdin, $2.1M
Annabelle Comes Home, $878M



PTA:
5 points - Luce, $26.597 (5)
4 points - Jay Myself, $18,909 (4)
3 points - Hobbs & Shaw, $14,117 (3)
2 points - The Lion King, $8,022 (12)
1 point - The Farewell, $5,899 (14)
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