SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/26

[numbersix]

Simba soars! Despite the middling reviews and calls from the critics that Disney’s adaptations have become a cynical conveyor belts of movies to distract the masses, Jon Favreau’s take on the lion that doesn’t sleep tonight broke all sorts of records, earning a massive $191m on its opening weekend which is July’s highest. Stay tuned for announcements of Lady and the Tramp, The Aristocats, and Tom Hanks to star as Woody in Homo Sapien Story.

Amidst concerns that cinema is increasingly dedicated to massive studio films, with smaller fare receiving little attention, this weekend features a dinosaur of cinema marking his territory as one of the last commercial auteurs.




With nothing else out besides Once Upon A Time in Hollywood (Sony), now’s a good time to look back at Quentin Tarantino’s films. Because QT’s films are the only real comparables to his latest.

Tarantino’s biggest film to date is Django Unchained, which opened to $30m over 2012’s Christmas holidays and went on to make $162m. More recently The Hateful Eight disappointed with a total of just over $54m (a result QT was quick to dismiss as being released too close to The Force Awakens, but we all know why it failed). His films tend to have strong holds and I’d bet my cumberbund that his audience are getting increasingly older.

Which may help [i...]Hollywood[/i]’s performance. It’s a period piece set in LA in 1969. Leo Di Caprio stars as a fading b-movie legend, with Brad Pitt as his stuntman sidekick. The marketing has astutely avoided giving us too much plot, besides a reference to the Manson Family, and fortunately critics have done well to avoid major spoilers. But we all know we’re going to get a motherfukin bloodbath amongst the stylised dialogue.

The film premiered in Cannes this year, and critics went ballistic about it. It currently has a 93% score on Rotten Tomatoes, his best since… well, ever, just beating Pulp Fiction’s 92% and the Basterd’s crazy 88. On Metacritic it’s at 88, his second best after Pulp. Also worth noting that this is the first film Leo and Brad have starred in together, giving it major star appeal. And there’s support from Margot Robbie, Al Pacino, Kurt Russell, Dakota Fanning, and Bruce Dern.

Are there negatives about his latest film? It does run a hefty 161 minutes, but that’s somewhere in the middle of QT’s flicks, a tad longer than Inglourious Basterds, Jackie Brown and the Kill Bill films, but shorter than Grindhouse, Django Unchained and The Hateful Eight. It seems when it comes to Tarantino, audiences are happy to spend a little extra time in his world. Unless it’s an indulgent one-location Western. There’s also the ongoing debate about whether Quent’s films glorify violence, especially against women, which seems like a more troublesome issue for culture nowadays. Yet it’s unlikely this will quell those who are curious.

So where does that leave us? Because this film doesn’t seem to be as genre-heavy as Django or Basterds, I’m wary of predicting this to be his biggest, especially if fans are hoping for a whole bloody affair. But this does feel like an “event” film, with QT being one of the few film-makers who can sell tickets on his name alone. Right now it feels like an opening in the mid 30s is a safe bet, with a strong hold resulting in a cume of $110m. IMDB score will be high too. However, it could end up with only 8 or 9 Top 5 points due to Simba still going strong this week, Hobbs and Shaw racing into pole position next, and then a whole loada mediocre stuff overwhelming the week after. It should get 5-7 PTA points as well. That does make it a decent Ultimate pick ($23) but it’s not a slate winner, and if you’re pairing it with a bigger film like It: Chapter 2 or Hobbs and Shaw, you better hope they both deliver. As for BO, sorry to be a [mimes square shape] but I’m not convinced it’s worth it, unless you think it can surprise and reach $150m.




Also opening this week is Mike Wallace is Here, a documentary from Magnolia Pictures. It’s a profile of the iconic journalist and presenter of 60 Minutes. He even got played by Christopher Plummer in The Insider. Presumably the doc charts his life and the impact of his career on the world. Magnolia have been leaning more into docs recently off the back of last year’s RBG, which remains their highest earning pic. This doesn’t quite have the appeal, but should still deliver some solid figures in its opening weekend. Expect 3-5 PTA, a solid IMDB, which makes it a decent pick-up for $3 in Ultimate. Avoid in BO.



Predictions for the weekend

1. The Lion King of the World - $85m
2. Once Upon A Time in Hollywood - $36m
3. Spider-Man: Far From Original - $13m
4 Toy Story 4 of many more - $10m
5. Yesterday - $4m

PTA: Lion King, OUATIH, Mike Wallace, The Farewell, David Crosby


And if you dare to keep reading then next week you’ll be rewarded with Boosch’s take on Hobbs and Shaw, as well as limited flix Them That Follow, Luce, Piranhas, and Jay Myself.

[Buscemi2]

Lady and the Tramp is actually going to be one of the first Disney+ titles in November. I'm solely interested for the casting of Sam Elliott as Trusty.

[transformers2]

I can't wait until Disney does a CGI reboot of Air Bud in 2036

[Shrykespeare]

Theater counts:

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - 3,659




Next week:

Hobbs & Shaw - 4,200
The Nightingale - 2





Celebrity birthdays:

Daniel Radcliffe turned 30 on 7/23
Michael Richards turned 70 on 7/24
Jennifer Lopez turned 50 on 7/24
Rose Byrne turned 40 on 7/24
Kevin Spacey turns 60 on 7/26

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascore:

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood: B (ties Jackie Brown and The Hateful Eight for Tarantino's worst Cinemascore)

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates

The Lion King, $23.4M
Once Upon a Time, $16.8M
Spider-Man, $3.5M
Toy Story 4, $3M
Crawl, $1.1M




Weekend Projections:

The Lion King, $77M
Once Upon a Time, $45M
Spider-Man, $12.7M
Toy Story 4, $10.3M
Crawl, $3.7M
Yesterday, $3.1M
Aladdin, $2.8M
Stuber, $1.8M
Annabelle, $1.5M



PTA:

Lion King, $16.3K
Once Upon a Time, $12.3K
The Farewell, $11.8K

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - The Lion King, $75.5M
4 points - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, $40.3M
3 points - Spider-Man: Far From Home, $12.2M
2 points - Toy Story 4, $9.9M
1 point - Crawl, $4.0M
Yesterday, $3.0M
Aladdin, $2.8M
Stuber, $1.7M
Annabelle Comes Home, $1.6M
The Farewell, $1.6M




PTA:
5 points - The Lion King
4 points - The Farewell
3 points - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2 points - Mike Wallace is Here
1 point - Spider-Man: Far From Home




So, for those of you playing the Box Office Champs Summer game, here are the results:

1. Avengers: Endgame, around $500M
2. Toy Story 4, $395M
3. The Lion King, $351M
4. Aladdin, $346M
5. Spider-Man: Far From Home, $344M
6. John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum, $170M
7. The Secret Life of Pets 2, $154M
8. Detective Pikachu, $144M
9. Godzilla: King of the Monsters, $110M
10. Rocketman, $95M

I did very well this season. I had nine of the ten on my list, with John Wick as one of my alternates. If I'd picked Aladdin to go several spots higher, I'd be getting bonus points for every single pick. Between that and picking Annabelle for my Top 10 instead of JW3, I probably won't win. But I might finish in the Top 10.

[numbersix]

I got the Top 10 films, but just not in the right order. Placed Pets 2 and Pikachu too high

[transformers2]

Got 9 out of 10 (like most people, John Wick 3 was the one I missed). While I don't really regret putting Men in Black: International in my top 10, I am definitely kicking myself for not buying into the buzz around Mr. Wick's 3rd adventure and putting in it my cheap seats over Dark Phoenix-which I knew had zero chance of clearing $100 mil.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - The Lion King, $76.6M (10)
4 points - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, $41.1M (4)
3 points - Spider-Man: Far From Home, $12.5M (17)
2 points - Toy Story 4, $10.5M (23)
1 point - Crawl, $4.1M (6)
Yesterday, $3.1M
Aladdin, $3.0M
Stuber, $1.8M
Annabelle Comes Home, $1.6M
The Farewell, $1.5M




PTA:
5 points - The Lion King, $16,216 (10)
4 points - The Farewell, $11,246 (13)
3 points - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, $11,228 (3)
2 points - Mike Wallace is Here, $6,479 (2)
1 point - Spider-Man: Far From Home, $3,233 (11)