ReelSociety Forums

Hey all, so I forgot this week I’m the speaker at a camp. Which is really cool, but I honestly don’t have much in the way of internet access. So, I think I;ll get this posted, but won’t have done any actual research on things - nor do I know what’s the results from this past weekend. So I”m going to make everything up. Enjoy!

This past weekend - Spiderman easily held on for a second week win with a better than average drop. It’s well on its way to besting Homecoming so kudos to those of you who picked that one up. And Toy Story 4 - for all the hand-wringing continues to hold and hold and hold. It’s even going to best TS3 when all is said and done - so take that naysayers! Never doubt the power of Woody! Crawl did better than Stuber which is like saying Twilight is a better book than Divergent. When the bar is that low. . . On the PTA front - some movie won. Probably Spiderman.

For this week the big dog, or Lion actually, of the summer is finally arriving. The Lion King is going to be huge. Not Endgame huge, but huger than Toy Story or Spiderman. Much like Aladdin which people whined about being unnecessary this one probably isn’t a needed remake. But who cares. It’s one of the biggest movies in the history of Disney. It’s beloved. This will make bank. It will open to 160 million, and get close to 600 million before the Sun sets on this circle of life. If you didn’t pick Spiderman you picked The Lion King. If you didn’t pick either - you’re a brave soul. And you probably won’t win the league this round. But hey, way to be different.

On the PTA front we have David Crosby. It’s going to come in second for sure. And it’ll get a few more points next week. That’s all I got for you. So, if you picked it - you have chosen wisely.

Again, sorry all - jump in with better analysis. I’m back to civilization on Sunday so I’ll be interested in how things actually went

Top 5
The Lion King
Spiderman
Toy Story 4
Crawl
Aladdin

PTA
The Lion King
David Crosby
Spiderman
??
??

It's interesting to see the sheen of Disney's live-action remakes start to wear off. Critics don't seem too keen on The Lion King, though that didn't hurt Aladdin. With nothing too essential coming out for the rest of the summer (besides an action spin-off and a QT joint), this will suck in pretty much everybody. Beauty and the Beast opened to $174m, so why shouldn't this do just as well?

It should be good for the first three weeks (the DiCaprio/Pitt and Johnson/Statham lovefests will be counterprogramming). Everything after that will depend on how the onslaught of PG-rated fare in August is.

Interestingly, in Paris, Lion King's numbers aren't "that impressive" for now. Yesterday, in the matinees, the film brought only the 4th biggest start of the year, behind Avengers, Toy Story 4 and Spider-man.

Walleye413 wrote:I”m going to make everything up

I was gonna call you lazy just for the fun of it, but what the heck, everyone's making everything up anyway.

Think The Lion King will definitely disappoint. Aladdin wasn't a "good" movie but I can see the replay value of it being fun and bright - perfect for the summer.

Nothing about the dull Lion King retread seems fun or bright at all. It should open well, due only to name recognition, but past that, I don't expect it to have a typical Disney hold.

The Lion King is now the widest release ever. 4,725 theatres.

Something's going to hit 5,000 either next year or the year after.

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:Think The Lion King will definitely disappoint. Aladdin wasn't a "good" movie but I can see the replay value of it being fun and bright - perfect for the summer.

Nothing about the dull Lion King retread seems fun or bright at all. It should open well, due only to name recognition, but past that, I don't expect it to have a typical Disney hold.

Of, first of all, Aladdin was a great movie. Second of all,

Do you still think it's going to spend nine weeks in first? No movie since Titanic has done that.

I give it three weeks. Four weeks tops. Some out of left field movie's going to knock it off the top.

I'm starting to think that "out of left field" movie is going to be Scary Stories. Buzz on social media is high and there's little competition until IT (Scary Stories will likely also draw some who were only interested in the first half of IT because of the early adolescent characters after the Stranger Things craze).

Also, the "Red Spot" story is the kind of striking imagery that attracts big audiences to horror films (think of the Georgie scene in IT, the clapping scene in the basement in The Conjuring, or the "He's got your baby!" scene from Insidious).

Theaters Counters:

The Lion King - 4,725
David Crosby: Remember My Name - 4



Next week:

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - 3,500+





Celebrity birthdays:

Jason Clarke turned 50 on 7/17
Juno Temple turns 30 on 7/21
Rory Culkin turns 30 on 7/21

Here is an (incomplete) evolution of the widest openers.

1,200 - The Trial of Billy Jack (1974)
1,300 - Breakout (1975)
<incomplete information between 1975-1978 and 1978-1979>
1,750 - Star Wars (1978 reissue)
1,759 - Superman III (1983)
1,966 - Star Trek III: The Search for Spock (1984)
2,074 - Rambo: First Blood Part II (1985) (Between Star Trek and Rambo, Beverly Hills Cop was the first film to ever hit 2,000 theatres, hitting 2,006 theatres in its third weekend.)
2,131 - Cobra (1986)
2,326 - Beverly Hills Cop II (1987)
2,837 - Crocodile Dundee II (1988)
2,868 - Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles II (1991)
3,012 - Mission: Impossible (1996)
3,281 - The Lost World: Jurassic Park (1997)
3,306 - Lost in Space (1998)
3,310 - Godzilla (1998)
3,312 - Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me (1999)
3,342 - Wild Wild West (1999)
3,467 - Scream 3 (2000)
3,653 - Mission: Impossible 2 (2000)
3,672 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
3,682 - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
3,741 - X2 (2003)
4,163 - Shrek 2 (2004)
4,252 - Spider-Man 3 (2007)
4,362 - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
4,366 - The Dark Knight (2008)
4,380 - Iron Man 2 (2010)
4,468 - The Twilight Saga: Eclipse (2010)
4,529 - Despicable Me 3 (2017)
4,662 - Avengers: Endgame (2019)
4,725 - The Lion King (2019)

What movie could pass The Lion King? I'm betting on either Frozen II or The Rise of Skywalker.

Probably both to be honest

The Lion King is looking at $22-25 million in Thursday night shows. This should translate to a $200 million+ weekend but there have been some Disney titles (Captain Marvel and Dumbo, for example) that were frontloaded on Thursday and opened below expectations.

Buscemi2 wrote:Do you still think it's going to spend nine weeks in first? No movie since Titanic has done that.

I give it three weeks. Four weeks tops. Some out of left field movie's going to knock it off the top.

I never really thought it would, I thought it had an outside shot. Still does, but I'm now higher on Hobbs and Shaw than I was, so that will probably ruin the chances.