Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/12

[transformers2]

Leave it to the MCU to change the dialogue surrounding the summer box office.

Peter Parker's journey abroad in Spider-Man: Far from Home amassed a ridiculous $185 mil over its first 6 days of release. That's roughly $31 mil more than 2017's Homecoming made over the same period and was good enough to go down as the 23rd highest 6 day opening of all time. This serves as the 6,098,743th reminder that royalty is untouchable in the world of movies and people have no problem going to see shit in the theater when they're interested in the product.

Elsewhere, the week's other wide opener Midsommar fell a bit shy of expectations with a $6.3 mil 3-day and $11 mil 5-day-good enough for #6 at the BO over the long weekend. Ari Aster's folk horror flick looks like its going to fall short of Hereditary's total, but with stronger-than-expected WOM and just 5 wide releases hitting theaters over the next 4 weeks, it should stick around for a bit and could flirt with $30 mil by the end of its run if all goes well.

Rounding out the top 5 was a bunch of respectable holdovers with Pixar's existential toy gang raking in another $33.9 mil at #2. the Beatles jukebox musical staying put at #3 with just over $10 mil, the 3rd solo adventure for the Conjuring universe's mascot mustering up another $9.8 mil in its sophomore frame and the invincible Aladdin enjoying his 7th straight top 5 finish with a $7.5 mil holiday haul.

Wide Releases:
2019's summer slate has basically been wall-to-wall blockbusters thus far. Not since May 3rd has there been a weekend that didn't feature at least one release that had a budget of at least $75 mil. This weekend offers a bit of a reprieve from that big budget madness as two relatively modest, original genre projects with very straightforward premises hit theaters. Crawl (Paramount) appears to be receiving the bigger release of the duo as its set to bow into approximately 3,000 theaters on Thursday night. This disaster horror pic from French splattermaster Alexandre Aja stars Kaya Scodelario and Barry Pepper as a daughter and father who get trapped in their Florida home during a hurricane.... with a bunch of alligators. With Aja behind the camera and the claustrophobic setting of a rapidly-flooding house full of lethal sea creatures, some nice suspense and a healthy dose of gore seems likely.

Summer is the perfect time to release something like Crawl. People around the country are more cognoscente of the terrors of the ocean than any other time of year and as the last few years have proven, there's still a legit market for creature features-especially when its hot outside. There's only one problem: Alligators don't have the track record of BO success that their shark cousins have. Where a low-rent shark movie like 47 Meters Down can gross $45 mil out of nowhere, a gator movie has yet to truly breakout (1999's Lake Placid is currently the top grosser with a middling $31.8 mil haul before inflation). This aquatic predator prejudice makes zero sense and easily could be proven wrong here as the sample size for gator movies is very limited, but it is something to keep in mind when you're doing your personal forecasts for this.

As for how I feel about Crawl's chances of succeeding, I'm genuinely on the fence. I had been vocally bullish about its box office forecast as recently as a few weeks ago, but now some doubt is starting to creep into my mind. Even though the last 18 months have been alright for them, Paramount's recent track record is easily the sketchiest out of the major studios and unlike the other cheap natural horror flicks that have done relatively well the past few summers (The Shallows, the aforementioned 47 Meters Down), Crawl boasts an R-rating and is entering a pretty competitive marketplace. WOM could very well prove to be the difference between a finish south of $30 mil and a finish somewhere around The Shallows' $55 mil.

Prediction: $9-20 mil OW/2-7 Top 5/0-2 PTA/low to mid 6 IMDb/$25-60 mil overall BO
Price (JUL-SEP): $11 ULT/$11 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Eh, maybe?


This weekend's other throwback genre offering is Stuber (Fox): an R-rated buddy action comedy led by the odd couple pairing of Kumail Nanjiani and Dave Bautista. Bautista plays a hardass LA cop with failing vision that essentially forces an Uber driver (Nanjiani) to help him pursue a ruthless drug lord (Iko Uwais). Karen Gillan, Natalie Morales, Betty Gilpin and Mira Sorvino also star.

Like seemingly every other comedy that hits theaters in 2019, Stuber has a solid pedigree that would've ensured its success 5-6 years ago. Nanjiani and Bautista are a likable duo with proven comedy chops, the premise is clear and filled with comic potential and Disney/Fox have held a ton of WOM screenings since it premiered at SXSW in March. Sadly, movies that go for yucks just generate nothing but indifference now and considering how much weaker the reviews have been than the likes of Long Shot and Booksmart, I don't see how Stuber can help reinvigorate the genre with audiences -even with its action elements. Is there a chance it turns out to be a Hitman's Bodyguard-esque sleeper hit? Sure, but I think it's far more likely that it will end up teetering out around the $35-45 mil mark.

Prediction: $8-18 mil/2-5Top 5/0-2 PTA/low to mid 6 IMDb/$22-57 mil overall BO
Price (JUL-SEP): $11 ULT/$11 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Stuber is in a similar crapshoot position as Crawl with perhaps slightly less upside because of its genre, so I'll stick with the maybe answer for the sake of consistency.


Limited Releases:
For some reason, this summer's specialty marketplace has been bizarrely barren for the most part. Docs Marianne and Leonard: Words of Love and Maiden, which managed a merely decent $11 and $8K opening PTA respectively have had the past 2 weekends to themselves for fuck's sake! Considering this general lack of activity, The Farewell (A24) seems like in its good position to bring some juice back into the arthouse scene.

Lulu Wang's family dramedy has built up a steady stream of buzz since it premiered at Sundance in January and is easily one of the reviewed movie of 2019 so far with a 100% on RT with over 50 reviews and an exceptional 88 on Metacritic. Throw in the magnetism of rising star Awkafina in the lead role and a universal story about the complicated dynamics of a family, dealing with loss and hiding the truth from a loved one with the intent of protecting them. The fact that at least a fair amount of the movie is in Mandarin could prove to be an obstacle once it releases wide, but I'm sticking to my prediction that The Farewell will be the indie breakout hit of the season.

Prediction: $120-180k OW/0 Top 5/7-12 PTA/low to mid 7 IMDb/$7-15 mil overall BO
Price (JUL-SEP): $4 ULT/$2 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: YES YES YES YES YES YES YES


Continuing with the acclaimed festival hits theme of this week's limited release is The Art of Self-Defense (Bleecker Street). This darkly comedic satire centered around a meek 30-something accountant (Jesse Eisenberg) who signs up for a karate class after being brutally attacked by a biker gang was one of the more buzzed about indie titles to screen at SXSW and has even some drawn comparisons to Fight Club for its unpredictability and commentary on toxic masculinity. Bleecker Street's tradition of going wide after one week along with its reported morbid, offbeat humor puts a bit of a damper on its prospects, but The Art of Self-Defense has a low price tag in our game and should be able to make some noise this weekend.
Prediction: $60-100k OW/0 Top 5/2-5 PTA/high 6 to low 7 IMDb/$750k-$2 mil overall BO
Price (JUN-AUG): $3 ULT/$1 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: While its wide expansion next week limits its appeal, it should still be a decent end-of-slate PTA option.


Weekend Projections:
1.Spider-Man: Far from Home $49 mil
2.Toy Story 4 $21.5 mil
3.Crawl $14 mil
4.Stuber $12 mil
5.Yesterday $7 mil

PTA: The Farewell, The Art of Self-Defense, Spider-Man: Far from Home, Marianne and Leonard: Words of Love, Crawl

Tune in next week when Walleye previews the biggest film to hit theaters since Endgame.... as well as Disney's CGI remake of The Lion King.

[Buscemi2]

I've seen almost nothing for Crawl. It wouldn't surprise me if this failed to clear $10 million for the weekend.

Meanwhile, Stuber's reviews are probably going to kill it. Fox has done all these free screenings to counter said reviews but there's little to no buzz. They should have just made the film with John Cena as originally planned.

[Walleye413]

If I'm building an Ultimate slate this year I'm picking massive blockbusters and $4 indie movies only. The Middle class movie is getting you almost nowhere this year. Best picks are what, Yesterday? The Hustle? I think Dora might surprise. Otherwise it's Big Tentpoles or 4 screeners. Crazy.

[Screen203]

If I'm building an Ultimate slate this year I'm picking massive blockbusters and $4 indie movies only. The Middle class movie is getting you almost nowhere this year. Best picks are what, Yesterday? The Hustle? I think Dora might surprise. Otherwise it's Big Tentpoles or 4 screeners. Crazy.

I think that Scary Stories To Tell In The Dark might break out.

[Buscemi2]

I'm not sure how Dora will do. It's coming out against several other family-aimed films and making it a sequel to the series might alienate the target audience (it didn't work for Shaft). Also, it's from the director of Alice Through the Looking Glass. On the other hand, it has Eugenio Derbez.

I'm think if any PG-rated movie does well in August, it's Overcomer. Those megachurches show up for that Kendrick Brothers-patented mainstream conversion shit. And unlike Pure Flix, they don't need to put graphic imagery or create controversy to sell it.

[Shrykespeare]

Theater counts:

Stuber - 3,050
Crawl - 3,000
The Art of Self-Defense - 7
The Farewell - 4



Next week:

The Lion King - 4,500





Celebrity birthdays:

Robert Knepper turned 60 on 7/8
Ken Jeong turns 50 on 7/13
Sid Haig turns 80 on 7/14

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascores:

Crawl: B
Stuber: B

Good for the horror title but not so good for the comedy.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates

Spider-Man: Far From Home, $13.4M
Toy Story 4, $6.3M
Crawl, $4.3M
Stuber, $3.1M
Yesterday, $1.9M
Aladdin, $1.8M
Annabelle Comes Home, $1.7M
Midsommar, $1.1M



Weekend Projections

Spider-Man: Far From Home, $46.1M
Toy Story 4, $21.7M
Crawl, $10.4M
Stuber, $8M
Yesterday, $6.7M
Aladdin, $5.9M
Annabelle Comes Home, $5.3M
Midsommar, $3.5M
Secret Life of Pets 2, $3.3M
MIB: International, $2.2M





That will bring Toy Story 4 to just shy of $350M, Aladdin to $330M, and Spider-Man to $275M. Avengers: Endgame will officially cross $850M.

I don't know what the original projections were for Yesterday, but $65-$70M seems likely. Not too shabby. Annabelle will do slightly better., and MIB will do slightly better than that, though those numbers classify as disappointments.

Bring on Lion King.

[Buscemi2]

Universal was convinced Yesterday would open to $10 million. Assuming the best legs, they probably expected only $40 million domestically.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Projections

Top 10:
5 points - Spider-Man: Far From Home, $45.3M
4 points - Toy Story 4, $20.7M
3 points - Crawl, $12.0M
2 points - Stuber, $8.0M
1 point - Yesterday, $6.7M
Aladdin, $5.9M
Annabelle Comes Home, $5.5M
Midsommar, $3.6M
The Secret Life of Pets 2, $3.1M
Men in Black International, $2.2M




PTA:
5 points - The Farewell
4 points - The Art of Self-Defense
3 points - Spider-Man: Far From Home
2 points - Toy Story 4
1 point - Crawl

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Spider-Man: Far From Home, $43.4M (10)
4 points - Toy Story 4, $20.9M (18)
3 points - Crawl, $12.0M (3)
2 points - Stuber, $8.2M (2)
1 point - Yesterday, $6.7M (7)
Aladdin, $6.2M
Annabelle Comes Home, $5.6M
Midsommar, $3.7M
The Secret Life of Pets 2, $3.2M
Men in Black International, $2.2M




PTA:
5 points - The Farewell, $88,916 (5)
4 points - The Art of Self-Defense, $16,339 (4)
3 points - Spider-Man: Far From Home, $9,787 (8)
2 points - Toy Story 4, $4,975 (15)
1 point - Crawl, $3,787 (1)