Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/2-7/5

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/2-7/5

Post by transformers2 »

In a summer that's been full of letdowns and surprises thus far, this past weekend proved to be a predictable and oddly quiet outlier.

Toy Story 4 eased a respectable 52% and topped the box office once again with ease, taking home an estimated $57.9 mil in its sophomore frame. Pixar's latest is currently sitting at roughly $237 mil and still has a decent shot to top Toy Story 3 as the highest grossing entry in the series by the end of its run.

A slightly more sinister toy story finished behind Woody, Buzz and the gang as Annabelle Comes Home pulled in $20.4 mil over the weekend after making approximately $11 mil in its first two days of release. While it seems like a bit of a letdown following its predecessor’s $35 mil debut, it did end up meeting Warner Brothers five-day projections ($30 mil) in a much more competitive marketplace than Creation opened to in 2017.

Other wide opener Yesterday provided the weekend's lone mild surprise. The Beatles jukebox musical cleared its low double digit projections with a solid $17 mil debut. Given its strong exit polling and notable lack of adult-aimed options on the horizon, this could go onto have a nice, leggy run throughout July (or at least I hope it will for the sake of my full year draft slate ;)

Wide Releases:
Peter Parker thought he was going to have a relaxing summer abroad with his friends after dying and coming back to life, but bad guys hellbent on achieving total annihilation don't take time off. Spider-Man: Far from Home (Sony) sees the young webslinger (Tom Holland) being forced into action by Nick Fury (Samuel L. Jackson) and a “mysterious” man named Quentin Beck (Jake Gyllenhaal) to contain a threat from another dimension.

As faulty as tracking has been so far this summer, every indication is that Far from Home is going to outgross Homecoming-which made $334 mil domestically in 2017. This past weekend's international opening which included a launch in BO hotbed China was 45% higher than Homecoming's, there's now an established good will with this iteration of the friendly neighbor hood Spider-Man and above all, it's the first glimpse of what a post-Endgame MCU is going to look like. How high it can go is still a bit of a mystery given its status as a continuation to a movie that didn't reach holy shit breakout status, but if the WOM ends up being at least as strong as Homecoming, it should be able to clear $400 mil with ease in a month that only has 4 wide releases on the schedule after this weekend.
Prediction: $85-125 mil OW ($130-185 mil 6-day)/10-18 Top 5/6-12 PTA/high 7 to low 8 IMDb/$365-475 mil overall BO
Price (JUN-AUG): $43 ULT/$45 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Completely depends on whether or not you think it can outperform The Lion King.


Merely 13 months after the release of Hereditary, budding horror auteur Ari Aster is back with Midsommar (A24). This time Aster has switched gears from a grief-driven supernatural tale to a heartbreak-driven piece of hallucinatory folk horror surrounding a young American couple (Florence Pugh, Jack Reynor) going through issues in their relationship that reluctantly accept an invite from a friend (Vilhelm Blomgren) to attend a festival in a small village in his native Sweden. What initially seems like a fun, relaxing getaway soon turns into an unspeakable nightmare as it turns out the residents are actually a cult engaging in a Pagan festival that is held once every 90 years. My guess is that these young lovebirds relationship isn't going to make it if they're fortunate enough to not be sacrificed in the name of Satan.

This will be an interesting litmus test for the power of Aster's brand and A24 as an indie horror producer. Obviously the nearly 150 minute runtime, A24's financial limitations from a marketing standpoint and arthouse sensibilities will prevent it from completely breaking out, but I don't expect the awful WOM Hereditary received from mainstream audiences to have much of an effect on Midsommar. Plus if A24 can get a folk horror flick that was in fucking Old English to gross $25 mil, why can't this at the very least do similar numbers? I'm expecting a final total that's relatively comparable to Hereditary, if not a little bit better.

Prediction: $8-15 mil OW ($14-22 mil 5-day)/1-5 Top 5/0-2 PTA/mid to high 7 IMDb/$33-50 mil overall BO
Price (JUN-AUG): $10 ULT/$10 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: I'm not, but it's an interesting wide release gamble during a top-heavy frame.


Limited Release:
Apparently Roadside has dedicated Fourth of July weekend to releasing music documentaries. Last year it was Kevin McDonald's Whitney, this year its Nick Broomfield's Marianne & Leonard: Words of Love. Broomfield's documentary tells the story of the relatively brief, but impactful relationship between Canadian novelist turned singer/songwriter Leonard Cohen and Marianne Ihlen-the Norwegian woman who became his muse in the early-to-mid 60's. From what I gathered from watching the trailer(this is going to come as a shock, but I know nothing about Cohen other than the fact that he died a few years back and he sang “Hallelujah”) prior to writing this, Ihlen helped inspire Cohen to transition into the world of music and Cohen established Ihlen with a sense of confidence that she never had before that allowed her to grow as a person. The small batch of reviews following its premiere in Sundance were incredibly enthusiastic and unlike Whitney, it doesn't appear to be receiving a 450+ theater release out of the gate-making it a solid consideration for our game.
Prediction: $55k OW/0 Top 5/3-9 PTA/low to mid 7 IMDb/$100-$350k overall BO
Price (JUN-AUG): $3 ULT/$1 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Worth considering as a cheap slate-filler option with solid floor


Weekend Projections:
1.Spider-Man: Far from Home $98 mil ($157 mil 6-day)
2.Toy Story 4 $34 mil
3.Yesterday $10.5 mil
4.Midsommar $10 mil ($16.5 mil 5 day)
5.Annabelle Comes Home $8 mil

PTA: Spider-Man: Far from Home, Marianne and Leonard: Words of Love, Toy Story 4, Maiden, Midsommar

You poor bastards are stuck with me again next week when Crawl, Stuber, The Farewell and The Art of Self Defense enter the box office fray.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/2-7/5

Post by Buscemi2 »

I don't think Midsommar's going to come close to $50 million. The long run time and audiences' cool reception to Hereditary may make it difficult to clear even half that.

In fact, I'm fully expecting an F Cinemascore on this one.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/2-7/5

Post by transformers2 »

I don't expect it to hit $50 mil either, that's simply what I believe it can max out at.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/2-7/5

Post by numbersix »

Was the reception to Hereditary cool? A 13m opening with a 44m suggests great WOM, far more than the majority of horror films. Midsommar, however, is a different affair. It's long, too long, and there's not much horror for the horror fans. 8m opening and 22m cume in my uneducated opinion.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/2-7/5

Post by Buscemi2 »

D+ Cinemascore. Hereditary seemed to play well as it was the only widely released horror film in the market (same thing with The Witch) and it brought in audiences that wouldn't have gone to a horror film (I feel Toni Collette's performance and the praise from more creditable critics sold it more than the scares). The traditional "gore and boobs/stuck in the 80's" crowd turned on it though.

Another strike against Midsommar is that it's coming just two weeks after Child's Play (which has already played out) and six days after Annabelle Comes Home. And one week later, Crawl opens. The market is too crowded at the moment.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/2-7/5

Post by transformers2 »

To be fair, all the horror offerings that have or are about to come out are all radically different from one another. If Midsommar and Crawl end up completely floundering, I don't think it's fair to say it was because of a crowded genre marketplace. Each of these titles fills its own niche under the vast genre umbrella, which in turn is why I believe their respective studios weren't concerned about releasing them in succession.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/2-7/5

Post by Screen203 »

Midsommar and Crawl should be able to co-exist- Crawl will likely be more mainstream than Midsommar, and Ari Aster has a following.

Also, I think that Hereditary recieved its CinemaScore because of the somewhat misleading marketing rather than the film's unrelenting nature and deviation from traditional horror tropes.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/2-7/5

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater Counts:

Spider-Man: Far From Home - 4,634
Midsommar - 2,707



Celebrity Birthdays:

Shawnee Smith turns 50 on 7/3
Kevin Hart turns 40 on 7/6
Shelley Duvall turns 70 on 7/7
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/2-7/5

Post by Buscemi2 »

Cinemascores:

Midsommar (polled Wednesday): C+ (way above what I expected)

Spider-Man apparently was not exit polled (possibly due to the Tuesday opening) or Sony had the score done privately. I'd expect it would be in the A range.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/2-7/5

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Spider-Man: Far From Home, $32.5M ($124.0M 4-day)
Toy Story 4, $11.9M
Yesterday, $3.4M
Annabelle Comes Home, $3.2M
Aladdin, $2.5M
Midsommar, $2.2M ($6.6M 3-day)
Secret Life of Pets 2, $1.5M
MIB International, $1.2M
Avengers: Endgame, $1.1M



Weekend Projections:

Spider-Man: Far From Home, $88.5M ($180.0M 6-day)
Toy Story 4, $32.5M
Yesterday, $10.0M
Annabelle Comes Home, $9.4M
Aladdin, $7.5M
Midsommar, $5.8M
Secret Life of Pets 2, $4.3M
MIB International, $3.8M
Rocketman, $3.8M
Avengers: Endgame, $3.1M
John Wick Chapter 3, $2.1M
Child's Play, $1.4M




So Avengers: Endgame is creeping up on $850M domestically, and is only $20M shy of Avatar's worldwide all-time record.

Toy Story 4 zooms past $300M in its third weekend and should pass Aladdin ($320M) by next week.

I'm hoping Annabelle has the gumption to make it to $75M. Midsommar... ugh. Looks like I picked a couple of turkeys.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/2-7/5

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Spider-Man: Far From Home, $93.6M ($185.1M six-day)
4 points - Toy Story 4, $34.3M
3 points - Yesterday, $10.7M
2 points - Annabelle Comes Home, $9.7M
1 point - Aladdin, $7.6M
Midsommar, $6.6M ($10.9M five-day)
The Secret Life of Pets 2, $4.8M
Men in Black International, $3.6M
Avengers: Endgame, $3.1M
Rocketman, $2.8M



PTA:
5 points - Spider-Man: Far From Home
4 points - Marianne & Leonard: Words of Love
3 points - Toy Story 4
2 points - Maiden
1 point - Yesterday
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/2-7/5

Post by undeadmonkey »

Aladdins holds have been fantastic.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/2-7/5

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Spider-Man: Far From Home, $92.6M ($185.1M 6-day) (5)
4 points - Toy Story 4, $33.9M (14)
3 points - Yesterday, $10.1M (6)
2 points - Annabelle Comes Homes, $9.5M (6)
1 point - Aladdin, $7.5M (21)
Midsommar, $6.3M ($10.9M 5-day)
The Secret Life of Pets 2, $4.7M
Men in Black International, $3.8M
Avengers: Endgame, $3.1M
Rocketman, $2.6M




PTA:
5 points - Spider-Man: Far From Home, $19,978 (5)
4 points - Marianne & Leonard: Words of Love, $11,235 (4)
3 points - Toy Story 4, $7,458 (13)
2 points - Maiden, $5,452 (6)
1 point - Yesterday, $3,847 (4)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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