Walleye's Weekly Winners - 6/26, 6/28

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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Walleye413
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Walleye's Weekly Winners - 6/26, 6/28

Post by Walleye413 »

Strange things are afoot at the Circle K. Toy Story 4 earned 120 million at the Box Office this past weekend and that was a) A Disappointment, b) The third biggest opening of the year, c) the biggest opening weekend in the history of the franchise, d) the third biggest opening in Pixar history, or e) All of the above. You all know the answer of course - but it’s strange indeed. If Godzilla or MIB had opened to 120 million we’d be going out of our minds at such an opening. But when you change the game - and when you buy up half of Hollywood - you don’t get to complain about unfair expectations. What will really tell the tale here are the drops over the next few weekends. If TS4 holds well maybe the whiners and haters will have to shut up. If it drops like most everything else has this Summer - there may be some truth to the idea of unmet expectations. Child’s Play made a comeback with 14 million, and may I say as someone who watched the original Chucky in theatres oh so long ago - there are so many better movies to bring back from that era. Chucky? Really? Dirty Rotten Scoundrels came out the same year and we chose those two? Give me Roger Rabbit p-p-p-please! Wild Rose made you a few PTA points and The Last Black Man in San Francisco and Aladdin both are up to 12(!) PTA points. How strange will this weekend be? I’m predicting a Documentary to be the best pick of the week - how’s that for strange?

The heavy hitter this week is supposed to be Annabelle Comes Home the sequel to the spin-off to the “Elvira Up all Night” ready original where it all began. These movies have been almost all good for 75-110 million no matter the subject, stars, release window, oh and quality. Forgot about that last one for a minute. Annabelle boasts some of the original stars back for a brief cameo at the start but then hands it over to some future franchise ready faces. Will it play like all the others? I think this Summer claims another victim and Annabelle Take, Take Me Home will be the lowest grossing entry in the series. It’ll still hit 60 million after a 20ish million opener, but in most leagues there’s got to be a better option. Right?

The biggest wildcard of the week, and possibly of the month, is Yesterday. For my non-movie going friends this movie has got them more intrigued than just about anything else they’ve seen ads for this Summer. It’s a clever concept - not a straight music bio-pic like Bohemian Rhapsody or Rocketman (not that those were straight, er, I mean, oh moving on) instead a fresh face gets to invent one of the greatest music albums of all time while trying to not forget why he became a musician in the first place. If this breaks out I wouldn’t be shocked at all. Again, I think this has outside credibility that could reach beyond our jaded group of cinephiles reading this article. Still - I’m just not convinced it’s a “hit”. I think it’ll have good word of mouth, a decent imdb score, 40 million in Box Office and get you 3-4 Top 5 and PTA points. But for $11-12 bucks in most leagues you need a little more than that. Still, I’m taking it, cause I’m a sucker.

On the PTA front we have another Documentary that is a huge crowd-pleaser and should do pretty well. Maiden is the incredible story of an all-women’s crew that navigates the Whitbread Around the World race in 1989. You’ll be shocked to know they faced a huge heaping amount of sexism as Sailors assumed you needed to be swinging a johnson between your legs in order to survive a 3 hour tour, let alone the hardest sailing race in the world. I won’t give it away, but if you want to feel good about life go see this movie. Will it do The Biggest Little Farm numbers? Probably not, but I think it’ll get you 8ish PTA points which is solid bang for your buck. And as someone who has had my butt kicked by the waves on a sailboat a few times, this story is worth a shout-out!

And then there’s Three Peaks. It’s got a cast of 3, I think it’s in three languages, and apparently those who have seen it think it’s really good. Other than that - I’m not sure I have anything for you. For $2 you could score a point or two. There are worse movies to bet on.

That’s it. You may want to be careful about Annabelle, if the Wednesday opening isn’t strong I doubt the weekend will be much better. At only 2600 screens I’m not sure Yesterday will beat it, but it just might.

Top 5
Toy Story 4
Annabelle Home is Where the Heart is
Yesterday
Aladdin
SLOP2

PTA
Toy Story 4
Maiden
Yesterday
Annabelle Home again, Home again, Jiggity Jig
Three Peaks

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Buscemi2
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 6/26, 6/28

Post by Buscemi2 »

I've seen almost nothing for Annabelle Comes Home. At this point, this franchise has simply become a case of "we can do anything we want with it and people will still show up". However, this approach seems to have not worked this time and combined with franchise fatigue (The Curse of La Llorona failed to impress critics or audiences), I think this will be the end for this ugly doll.

On the other hand, I've seen a lot of material for Yesterday. There hasn't been a truly accessible comedy this months and the Anglophiles will eat it up. Reviews haven't been so good but that hasn't stopped Richard Curtis in the past.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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numbersix
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 6/26, 6/28

Post by numbersix »

Looks like you're both right. Deadline is saying 28m for the 5 day, which should result in a 60m cume.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 6/26, 6/28

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater counts:

Annabelle Comes Home - 3,613
Yesterday - 2,603
Maiden - 6

Avengers: Endgame - back to 2,025



Next week:

Spider-Man: Far From Home - 4,350





Celebrity birthdays:

Mindy Kaling - turned 40 on 6/24
Busy Philipps - turned 40 on 6/25
Chandler Biggs - turned 20 on 6/27
Vincent D'Onofrio - turns 60 on 6/30
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Brockster
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 6/26, 6/28

Post by Brockster »

Avengers: Endgame - back to 2,025
My full year draft loves this. Milk it!!

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undeadmonkey
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 6/26, 6/28

Post by undeadmonkey »

I really can't see this re-release doing that well. and even if it does and passes Avatar.

Disney going to re-release Avatar before #2 comes out.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 6/26, 6/28

Post by Buscemi2 »

I expect it to do as well as Once Upon a Deadpool did. Everyone that wants to see Endgame has already seen it. Is a six-minute trailer really enough of an incentive?
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 6/26, 6/28

Post by Buscemi2 »

Cinemascores:

Yesterday: A- (seems to be Richard Curtis' best score and equals Boyle's Steve Jobs)
Annabelle Comes Home (polled Wednesday): B- (below the first two Annabelles and their B scores)
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 6/26, 6/28

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Toy Story 4, $17.0M
Annabelle Comes Home, $6.6M
Yesterday, $6.1M
Aladdin, $2.9M
Secret Life of Pets 2, $2.0M
Men In Black Intl., $1.9M
Avengers: Endgame, $1.9M
Child's Play, $1.3M
Rocketman, $1M



Weekend Projections:

Toy Story 4, $56M
Annabelle Comes Home, $20.5M
Yesterday, $16.9M
Aladdin, $9.7M
Secret Life of Pets 2, $6.7M
Avengers: Endgame, $6.6M
Men In Black Intl., $6.1M
Child's Play, $4.4M
Rocketman, $3.5M
John Wick 3, $2.9M
Godzilla: King, $2M
Dark Phoenix, $1.6M
Anna, $1.4M
Shaft, $1.3M
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Brockster
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 6/26, 6/28

Post by Brockster »

Avengers: Endgame, $6.6M

Me likey!

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Shrykespeare
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 6/26, 6/28

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Toy Story 4, $57.9M
4 points - Annabelle Comes Home, $20.4M ($31.2M 5-day)
3 points - Yesterday, $17.0M
2 points - Aladdin, $9.3M
1 point - The Secret Life of Pets 2, $7.1M
Men In Black International, $6.5M
Avengers: Endgame, $5.5M
Child's Play, $4.3M
Rocketman, $3.9M
John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum, $3.2M



PTA:
5 points - Toy Story 4
4 points - Maiden
3 points - Yesterday
2 points - Annabelle Comes Home
1 point - Wild Rose




Toy Story 4 has a shot at hitting $300M next weekend. $350 seems likely.

Aladdin passed $300M and will top out around $325M. Wow.

Secret Life of Pets 2 will max out at $150M. Very disappointing.

Men in Black International may hit $80M, but not much about that.

Avengers: Endgame may now hit $850M. Can it top Avatar for worldwide gross champion?
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 6/26, 6/28

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Toy Story 4, $59.7M (10)
4 points - Annabelle Comes Home, $20.3M ($31.1M 5-day) (4)
3 points - Yesterday, $17.0M (3)
2 points - Aladdin, $10.1M (20)
1 point - The Secret Life of Pets 2, $7.3M (11)
Men In Black International, $6.7M
Avengers: Endgame, $6.1M
Child's Play, $4.4M
Rocketman, $3.9M
John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum, $3.2M



PTA:
5 points - Toy Story 4, $13,049 (10)
4 points - Maiden, $7,822 (4)
3 points - Yesterday, $6,535 (3)
2 points - Annabelle Comes Home, $5,610 (2)
1 point - Wild Rose, $3,725 (5)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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