SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 6/21

[transformers2]

The Lion King
Lion King
King the Lion
Lion the King
Jon Faverau's CGI Remake of the beloved 1994 animated film "The Lion King"

[numbersix]

Is 120m underperforming? Only by analyst standards. It's still Pixar's 3 highest opening, the highest opening of any Toy Story film, the 3rd highest opening weekend of the year (with only 3 or 4 other films with the potential to top that), and globally it's gonna still end up around the billion mark. Regardless of industry expectations this is still a major achievement for the 4th film in a franchise.

[Buscemi2]

I still think everyone here is overestimating The Lion King. Pundits have been complaining about sequels but why does a remake get a pass?

And Hustlers will not do shit. The director's never had a hit and the few people that want to see Cardi B strip will just go to PornHub.

As for Toy Story 4, Saturday's going to pass Friday. My showing was crowded.

[numbersix]

If you were to ask a studio exec, audiences are digging the spate of live-ish action remakes of Disney classics. Dumbo failed, for sure, but look at how The Jungle Book, Beauty and the Beast, and Aladdin (which exceeded expectations, and is due to make 300m domestic) fared. The Lion King is even more popular. The original made over 400m which is double any of its comparables throughout the 90s. It is the most popular of the Disney classics, so it's logical to assume the high-profile Disney-made remake will be absolutely massive. There's no reason to think it won't beat Beauty's 174m opening and 500m cume.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Toy Story 4, $118.0M
4 points - Child's Play, $14.1M
3 points - Aladdin, $12.2M (seems like a lock for $300M now)
2 points - Men In Black International, $10.7M
1 point - The Secret Life of Pets 2, $10.3M
Rocketman, $5.6M
John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum, $4.1M
Godzilla: King of the Monsters, $3.7M
Dark Phoenix, $3.6M
Shaft, $3.6M
Anna, $3.5M



PTA:
5 points - Toy Story 4
4 points - Wild Rose
3 points - The Last Black Man in San Francisco
2 points - Child's Play
1 point - Aladdin

[undeadmonkey]

The only reason Toy Story 4 is being seen as a disappointment is due of the overestimating. 3 was the end, people loved it, everyone let go and moved on and 4 still opened higher than 3. Can anyone name a trilogy that concluded it's story and then the 4th movie made more? i can't think of one.

Also, i haven't seen it, but i bet there's enough easter eggs/ setup in it to make it's own spinoff trilogy if Pixar wants to.

[Geezer]

Six, my man, what happened? I know you were on board the underperformance train back during draft time, now I read this? When are you guys going to learn to trust my Disney instincts? First I nailed Aladdin, now Toy Story 4 is coming in well short of expectations. Its still a smash hit, but, like I said, it will fall short of what Toy Story 3 made. Basically, when it comes to Disney, remember this simple rule: Geezer good, Buscemi bad.

[numbersix]

Geezer, your role as Disney Diviner has been officialised.

[Buscemi2]

Can anyone name a trilogy that concluded it's story and then the 4th movie made more? i can't think of one.

The Fast and the Furious. Of course, that series barely has a story as is.

[undeadmonkey]

Tokyo Drift was so not an ending of a trilogy. Fast 5 was actually the reboot fo the series, going the heist route.

[Buscemi2]

But they almost didn't even make the fourth one after Tokyo Drift. Most franchises would have quit after a flop like that one.

And was anyone in 2007 even wondering what happened to Dominic Toretto? The franchise was basically a trilogy (2 Fast 2 Furious could be viewed as the third chronologically and it wasn't a good look for the series) then and any idea of Fast & Furious was an afterthought.

Another example of the fourth installment surpassing the previous entries: Star Trek. The Voyage Home was the biggest entry until Star Trek 2009.

[Chienfantome]

Yeah it's a very strong number from Toy Story 4. I never bought the film would make as much as what tracking was announcing, it was so overestimated, that now everyone's saying Toy Story 4 disappoints, but I'm sure anyone who drafted it in May would have signed knowing it would make such an opening weekend number.

[transformers2]

I'm just baffled how a $118 mil pull OW from Toy Story 4 is being labeled as this soul-crushing disappointment that further indicates that the theatrical business is in trouble. Aladdin has been hailed as a runaway success story in a summer full of colossal failures, but the movie that made a few more million in 3 days than Prince Ali did over a 4-day holiday weekend is somehow a bomb? Was it a bit less than expected? Sure, I just think the industry people are digging even further into their bag of hyperbole than usual with this one because they highballed the tracking numbers.

[Geezer]

I'm just baffled how a $118 mil pull OW from Toy Story 4 is being labeled as this soul-crushing disappointment that further indicates that the theatrical business is in trouble. Aladdin has been hailed as a runaway success story in a summer full of colossal failures, but the movie that made a few more million in 3 days than Prince Ali did over a 4-day holiday weekend is somehow a bomb? Was it a bit less than expected? Sure, I just think the industry people are digging even further into their bag of hyperbole than usual with this one because they highballed the tracking numbers.

I don't think anyone should be calling it a bomb. Like I mentioned before, its still a smash hit. But relative to expectations, it should be looked at as disappointing. People get paid a lot of money to do cost analysis on how much to spend on marketing and other factors that go into films, and they have projections they intend to make to get their money's worth. Deadline reported that Disney lined up 150 million dollar marketing push for it, their biggest ever. They probably have some disappointed people, but I'm pretty sure they're still doing fine. It won't get to Incredibles 2 numbers, or even Finding Dory, and I think that has to be at least a bit surprising to some people, as Toy Story is thought of as the bigger draw.

I mean hell, at draft time around here we had some predictions thrown out that well exceeded 500 million, and its going to be WELL short of that. I mean, the point of our game has always been to sniff out the errors in early tracking, whether high or low. If they were always right, there'd be no reason to play. And remember, drafting TS4 meant forgoing some other heavy hitters, like Frozen 2, which I'd be willing to bet at this point will make more (and I would have at the time too.)

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Toy Story 4, $120.9M (5)
4 points - Child's Play, $14.1M (4)
3 points - Aladdin, $13.2M (18)
2 points - Men In Black International, $10.7M (7)
1 point - The Secret Life of Pets 2, $10.3M (10)
Rocketman, $5.6M
John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum, $4.1M
Godzilla: King of the Monsters, $3.9M
Anna, $3.6M
Dark Phoenix, $3.5M
Shaft, $3.6M




PTA:
5 points - Toy Story 4, $26,428 (5)
4 points - Wild Rose, $13,325 (4)
3 points - The Last Black Man in San Francisco, $5,701 (12)
2 points - Child's Play, $4,687 (2)
1 point - Aladdin, $3,856 (12)