SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 6/21

[numbersix]

In the immortal words of Dr Samuel Beckett, oh boy. Misery sure does love company, and last weekend joined the previous as a disastrous summer outing. We should all have suspected that without Big Willie, Men in Black would end up a little stubby. But not many expected Shaft to get so shafted. It seems this summer will only be good for a few select titans, one of which happens to be opening this weekend.




Yes, Toy Story 4 (Buena Vista) is not the adult-oriented dildo adventure you’ve never been waiting for, but the continuation of Pixar’s flagship franchise which uprooted what animation could do, technically and emotionally, almost 25 years ago. The fourth instalment sees the familiar gang of toys now living with little Bonnie. Bonnie creates the new addition, a fork named Forky, whose deep existential crisis about his nature as a toy causes him to flee in philosophical panic. Good ol Woody chases after Forky and gets separated from the group. All the usual voices are here, with new additions Tom Hale as Forky, Peele and Key as Bunny and Ducky, and Keanu Reeves as Duke Caboom.

Now, here’s the problem: haven’t we seen all this before? Wasn’t the original Toy Story almost the exact same, when Buzz fails to realise he’s a toy and has to be rescued by Woody? And not only is the franchise starting to repeat itself, but wasn’t Toy Story 3 the perfect way to conclude the series? Sadly, it’s the nature of Hollywood to keep a franchise going until one of its films bombs (ahem ahem Dark Phoenix), rather than depart on a high note. And it’s sad to say Toy Story 4 could disappoint. The good news seems to be that this isn’t quite the case. Reviews have acknowledged the familiar territory but found plenty else to enjoy, and more significantly tracking is through the roof and almost equalling the $180m opening of Incredibles 2.

I’m going to be a little more conservative and predict an opening in the 160s, which will still garner a cume of $450m+, with no competition until The Lion King. It should result in at least 17 T5 points, 12-14 PTA points, and an IMDB score around the 8 mark. Normally I’d say nab it like it’s that childhood blankie that you used to hug and sit by the washing machine until it was finished and… uh… moving on… it seems like a great pick. However, it’s $48/45 in BO and $46/$43 in Ultimate. Which means it’s this OR The Lion King. In your April and May leagues it seems Pixar is the best way to anchor your slate in both leagues. This is a big dilemma for your June leagues, and I suspect, due to a weakish August, that Simba will deliver more in every category.




From my beloved blankie to my sleepless nights: Chucky! Child’s Play (United Artists) is a reboot of the “video nasty” that my older brothers showed to 10 year-old me. Like the original, it’s a story about a demonic doll that causes under-age viewers to lose sleep for about a year and doubt the intentions of his toys for the rest of his life. Lars Klevberg directs and it stars Aubrey Plaza and Gabriel Bateman, with Mark “Use the Forks” Hamill as the voice of Chucky.

Initial buzz was surprisingly high on a reboot of a franchise which has failed to theatrically deliver for decades. But this doesn’t feel like the next Halloween, and UA haven’t being doing well this summer. Plus, next week’s Annabelle threequel seems like more of a draw. At best expect an opening in the mid teens (i.e. around about the age my nightmares stopped), a cume in the low 40s, with 7 T5 points, 2 PTA points, and a 6-ish IMDB score. In Ultimate that’ll cost you $7-11, which isn’t the worst if you need a mid-level filler, but I suspect Crawl will deliver better numbers. In BO ($8-11) avoid it like I avoided any form of intimacy lest my loved one got stabbed by the murderous toy.




There’s little to say about Anna (Lionsgate), Luc Besson’s latest action film. It’s a generic female assassin story, with a somewhat interesting support cast (Helen Mirren, Cillian Murphy, Luke Evans). But this feels like a SVOD film that somehow managed to get 2000+ theatres. With little marketing and no buzz, it will be no Lucy, nor even a Valerian. Expect an opening under $5m and a total intake of less than $12m. That just won’t deliver on any front.




Finally, Wild Rose (Neon) is getting released in 4-5 theatres this weekend. It tells the story of a troubled young women (played by the future-star Jessie Buckley) trying to break out of Glasgow and make it big in the world of country music. It sounds like a small movie, but it got a big response from its festival circuit which started in Toronto last year, and critics agree. That said, the film failed to deliver in its home territory to the degree it expected, so don’t expect a surprise hit here. $5m by the outro, singing the high notes on the PTA front (6-8), and a mighty fine IMDB score in the mid 7s all comes together into a great Ultimate pick.



Predictions for the weekend

1. Toy Story 4 - $165m
2. Child’s Play - $14m
3. MIB International - $13m
4. Secret Life of Pets 2 - $13m
5. Aladdin - $10m

PTA: Toy Story 4, Wild Rose, Last Black Man in San Fran, Child’s Play, MIB


Tune in this time next week when Walleye sets his sights on Annabelle Comes Home, Yesterday, Maiden, and Three Peaks.

[Buscemi2]

I don't think Child's Play will even hit $10 million. The original franchise is still going as a straight-to-DVD series and I can't think of a "technology is evil" movie that's done well in recent memory. Also, did this really need to get the It treatment?

In addition, I could see some of the more rabid horror fans not showing up as they decided not to bring back Brad Dourif as Chucky's voice.

[transformers2]

I'd feel better about Child's Play if United Artists wasn't distributing it. A debut in the low-to-mid teens still seems likely because it's the 1st Chucky movie in nearly 15 years to be theatrically released, but those clowns have displayed a gift for putting out bombs.

[undeadmonkey]

hell yes!! I'm really wishing your Aladdin prediction holds true

[numbersix]

hell yes!! I'm really wishing your Aladdin prediction holds true

Whoops, and changed

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Who even wants Toy Story 4? I get that it's examining some deep questions about "what is a toy" or not, but it seems like one big yawnfest.

Then again, I'm pretty lukewarm on Toy Story 2 & 3 so I was never really into the franchise anyway.

[Buscemi2]

Aladdin is going to be the second feature at a number of drive-ins showing Toy Story 4 so as a result, it could hold well this weekend (see the increase Dumbo had when Aladdin opened).

[Screen203]

Who even wants Toy Story 4? I get that it's examining some deep questions about "what is a toy" or not, but it seems like one big yawnfest.

Then again, I'm pretty lukewarm on Toy Story 2 & 3 so I was never really into the franchise anyway.

Exactly why I could see it underperforming. 3 seemed to be the finite end, so I'm not sure how existential toys is going to play with most audiences.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Theater Counts:

Toy Story 4 - 4,575
Child's Play - 3,007
Anna - 2,114
Wild Rose - 4



Next week:

Annabelle Comes Home (Wed) - 3,500+
Yesterday - 2,600




Celebrity birthdays:

Christopher Mintz-Plasse turned 30 on 6/20 Yeah, MCLOVIN!!!
Lionel Richie turned 70 on 6/20
Chris Pratty turned 40 on 6/21
Lindsay Wagner turns 70 on 6/22
Meryl Streep turns 60 on 6/22

[Buscemi2]

Am I the only one who hasn't seen a thing for Annabelle Comes Home? It opens in six days and it feels like there's been no buzz whatsoever.

[transformers2]

Saw a handful of spots during the NBA Finals, some banner ad's on various sites and finally saw the trailer in theaters ahead of Shaft, but that's about it. While I doubt it perform like Creation due to much stiffer competition, it should still do fine.

[Screen203]

I've seen online ads, and a preview at the movies a while ago - marketing has been really quiet compared to The Nun, which was marketed months in advance.

[Shrykespeare]

I've seen a few. As opposed to the zero I've seen for Child's Play.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates

Toy Story 4, $47.4M
Child's Play, $6.1M
Aladdin, $4M
MIB Intl, $3.2M
SLOP 2, $3.2M
Rocketman, $1.6M
Anna, $1.4M
John Wick 3, $1.1M
Godzilla, $1.1M
Dark Phx, $1M

[Walleye413]

Crazy to think that 120 million is underperforming, but it is. What a lame Summer of movies!

Alright pick the next 5 movies that you think will actually met expectations or even overperform.

I'll go
Lion King - Meet
Dora - Overperform
It 2 - Meet
Hustlers - Overperform
Abominable - Overperform

I'm unsure on Spidey, Once upon a time in Hollywood, and Hobbs and Shaw - the way things have been going I'm just not sure on them.

I think The Lion King is safe, but otherwise I think maybe it's just a down summer. Have to wait for Fall for things to turn around.