Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/14

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/14

Post by Buscemi2 »

Cinemascores:

Shaft: A (besting Shaft 2000's A- score and tying Think Like a Man and Ride Along for Tim Story's best Cinemascore)
Late Night: B+
Men in Black International: B (worst for the series and F. Gary Gray's second worst Cinemascore, only ahead of Be Cool's B-)
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/14

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Friday Estimates

Men in Black International, $10.4M
The Secret Life of Pets 2, $6.9M
Aladdin, $4.7M
Shaft, $2.7M
Dark Phoenix, $2.3M
Rocketman, $2.3M
Godzilla: King of the Monsters, $2.2M
Late Night, $1.7M
John Wick 3, $1.4M
Ma, $1.1M




Weekend Projections

Men In Black International, $26.2M
The Secret Life of Pets 2, $25M
Aladdin, $16.3M
Dark Phoenix, $9.1M
Rocketman, $8.7M
Godzilla, $8.3M
Shaft, $8.2M
John Wick 3, $5.5M
Late Night, $4.8M
Ma, $3.6M
Avengers: Endgame, $3.6M

The Dead Don't Die, $2.5M
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/14

Post by Screen203 »

I don't understand why some people thought Rocketman would do more than 100 million. The movie is just too artsy for mainstream audiences (although word of mouth out of my showing yesterday was very positive).
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/14

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Screen203 wrote:I don't understand why some people thought Rocketman would do more than 100 million. The movie is just too artsy for mainstream audiences (although word of mouth out of my showing yesterday was very positive).
Two words - Bohemian Rhapsody. If not for that film's mega-success, no one would have inflated Rocketman's predictions. Tell me I'm wrong.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/14

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If Rocketman is too artsy, so is The Greatest Showman.

Maybe audiences don't care much for a film where the sound mix doesn't make you deaf and the editing wasn't done by a blender.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/14

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Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Men in Black International, $28.5M
4 points - The Secret Life of Pets 2, $23.8M
3 points - Aladdin, $16.7M
2 points - Dark Phoenix, $9.0M
1 point - Rocketman, $8.8M
Shaft, $8.3M
Godzilla: King of the Monsters, $8.1M
John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum, $6.1M
Late Night, $5.1M
Ma, $3.6M


PTA:
5 points - The Last Black Man in San Francisco
4 points - Men In Black International
3 points - The Secret Life of Pets 2
2 points - Aladdin
1 point - The Dead Don't Die

No word on American Woman just yet.



The Good:

Aladdin will need to stretch to reach $300M, especially with Toy Story 4 next week, but it will be close.
John Wick 3 will likely top out around $160M, far and way the best of the franchise.
Avengers: Endgame just hit $830M. Still $100M shy of Force Awakens, but still very respectable.


The Meh:

Godzilla: King of the Monsters should hit $100M by next weekend. I'd call that satisfactory, as I don't think many of us were expecting much more than that.
I was hoping for $50-$60M out of Ma, but it should get to $45M, so I'll take that as a partial win on my FY slate.
Rocketman seems primed for about $80M. Far less than some pundits predicted, but I wasn't expecting a duplication of Bohemian Rhapsody.



The Bad:

Two weekends in, and Secret Life of Pets 2 STILL hasn't cracked $100M. It will this week, but right now $150M seems like the ceiling, only about 40% of its predecessor.
Dark Phoenix will be lucky to hit $70M. This franchise is in desperate need of a hard reboot. Which it will likely get.
Men in Black International will likely also top out at $70M. I think any future films in the franchise are in danger of getting made.
Detective Pikachu will not hit $150M. Can't say I'm surprised, but others thought it would be a smash hit.




This summer season is turning out to be a minefield. I'm wondering just how many huge hits are upcoming. The safest bets are Toy Story 4, Spider-Man, and Lion King, obviously. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Hobbs & Shaw, possibly. Any others? Is there a surprise hit like Crazy Rich Asians or The Meg lurking in the shadows? (I'm hoping it's Annabelle, for obvious reasons.)
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/14

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I believe that Rocketman's "underwhelming" performance can strictly be attributed to the fact that Elton John's music hasn't transcended generations like Queen's has. Audience reception has been pretty great across the board, so the fantastical musical sequences don't seem to be bothering a lot of people.

As for a surprise sleeper hit, Yesterday, Crawl and Blinded by the Light seem like the best bets at the moment (Anabelle is a part of an established franchise, so that disqualifies it from sleeper status imo). July and August are largely barren, so some non-franchise movie has to breakout right?
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/14

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I could see StUber breaking out as well.
It's not destroying. It's making something new.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/14

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Blinded by the Light will play like The Big Sick at best and Sing Street at worst. Had Richard Curtis written it, it would have much better prospects.

I think Paramount jumped the gun on Crawl by moving it up. As a result, there hasn't been much of an ad campaign. In addition, the R rating and the lack of a big star (The Shallows had Blake Lively while The Meg had Jason Statham) hurt it.

Stuber would seem like a sleeper hit candidate based on all of the advance screenings it has had but neither Nanjiani nor Bautista seem like the type to open a big studio film (and Michael Dowse has made a career of making these hyped cult-appeal films that end up not taking off). Also, SXSW films tend to get overrated.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/14

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Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Men in Black International, $30.0M (5)
4 points - The Secret Life of Pets 2, $24.4M (9)
3 points - Aladdin, $17.3M (15)
2 points - Rocketman, $9.42M (6)
2 points - Dark Phoenix, $9.35M (5)
Shaft, $8.9M
Godzilla: King of the Monsters, $8.8M
John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum, $6.4M
Late Night, $5.3M
Avengers: Endgame, $3.7M
Ma, $3.7M


PTA:
5 points - The Last Black Man in San Francisco, $10,581 (9)
4 points - Men In Black International, $7,111 (4)
3 points - The Secret Life of Pets 2, $5,348 (5)
2 points - Aladdin, $4,868 (11)
1 point - The Dead Don't Die, $4,144 (1)

American Woman managed a PTA of a whopping $945/theater.
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