Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: June 7th-9th

[Buscemi2]

“Here comes the dog, strong and brave! (Woof!) Here comes the dog, your life he will—” – Otis, The Adventures of Milo and Otis (1989)

Summer is in full swing with the theatres packed with the latest entries by the studios in the movie sweepstakes. And this weekend is no different, with pets duking it out against superheroes. Also on tap, three limited releases.

Last Week

Godzilla: King of the Monsters was your box office king this weekend, roaring up a tally of $47.8 million. It was also the PTA winner with $11,630 per theatre. Second place was last week’s champ, Aladdin, wishing up $42.8 million (53% drop). Third and fourth in both categories were the other new openers, Rocketman ($25.7 million) and Ma ($18.1 million). Rounding out the top five in both categories was John Wick Chapter 3.

The other two second week openers had hefty drops. Booksmart shed 52% despite decent word of mouth while Brightburn dropped 69% from its previous weekend.

It’s No “Secret”

First of the wide releases is The Secret Life of Pets 2 (Universal), a sequel to the wildly successful 2016 film. In the three years since the first film’s events, a lot has changed for Max (now voiced by Patton Oswalt as they couldn’t possibly have a dirty man who whacks it in front of helpless women do a movie for children). With his owner now married and with a kid, Max takes his new duties as the child’s protector with a little more force than he should. When he and Duke visit a farm with their family, Max learns from the farm animals that maybe he’s been taking the guard dog business a little too seriously. Much of the first film’s cast returns, with Harrison Ford, Tiffany Haddish, Nick Kroll, and Pete Holmes added as new characters.

The first proved to be a massively popular film from the Illumination camp, despite a vocal minority criticizing it for being too similar to Toy Story (even though Toy Story was hardly original, see Jim Henson’s The Christmas Toy), and you just knew there would be another. In fact, the idea of setting it on a farm was somewhat expected too (I bet if there’s a third, it will involve aliens) due to the possibility of adding new characters. But while there is bound to be some criticism over the content not being original or possibly being too predictable, this one will do well. Kids and even adults love the cute little animals (I like the Pomeranian the most).

Potential: from having seen the film, I’m going to say that it won’t be on the first film’s level but the end result should still be stellar. $65 million opening, $211 million finish.

“Phoenix” Rising

Next on the slate is Dark Phoenix (Disney/Fox), the latest entry in the X-Men franchise and what is more or less a retread of the third X-Men film (or at least the early drafts of The Last Stand, back when future Kingsman and X-Men: First Class director Matthew Vaughn was going to make it). The last entry before the expected MCU-ing of the franchise that will throw out the confused continuity of the series, the film takes place in 1992 (ironically, the same year the popular animated series debuted) and handles the Dark Phoenix saga. Sophie Turner plays Jean Grey, Jessica Chastain shows up as a mentor character, and the rest of the expected X-Men cast appears as well.

Despite being a big ($200 million budget) comic book film, there’s been a stunning lack of buzz on Dark Phoenix. The film tested terribly, it’s been delayed a few times (at one point, there was a rumor that Disney would dump it and New Mutants onto Hulu), and it feels like fans are just waiting on what Kevin Feige will do with the characters (my requests: give Gambit something to do and stop forcing Mystique as the franchise’s key). But maybe the fans show up like they did with Venom. Or maybe not. Dark Phoenix doesn’t feel like some neckbeard manifesto. Either way, this film feels about as pointless as the Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them series.

Potential: the lowest grossing X-Men movie is The Wolverine at $133 million and with the exceptions of the Deadpool movies and Logan, the franchise with the current cast members has been trending downward. I think this one may end up be the low-water mark for the series before the expected clean slate. $45 million opening, $110 million finish.

Arthouse Class 101

This week on the curriculum, three limited releases.

The Last Black Man in San Francisco (A24) – last year, it was all about Oakland (Black Panther, Sorry to Bother You, and Blindspotting). This year, San Francisco hopes to take the title of the movie destination in the Bay Area with this semi-autobiographical drama starting and co-written by Jimmie Falls (who also plays himself, or at least a fictional version of himself). The film focuses on Falls and his attempts to keep the house that his grandfather built from going into foreclosure. The film also focuses on the disappearance of…well, it’s the title of the movie. Names in the cast include Danny Glover, Mike Epps, Finn Whitrock, Thora Birch, and in a brief cameo, Jello Biafra. Brad Pitt produced the film.

The film was adored at Sundance and won its director two awards. But can critical acclaim translate into box office success? A24’s marketing suggests a film that’s basically if Barry Jenkins made Blindspotting. But unlike the semi-mainstream nature of Jenkins’ work, I’m thinking the artistic nature of the story and the docufiction style might make this a hard sell past the big cities (where it will do excellently, expect great numbers in California). But if the film is expanded slowly, it might be worthwhile in the game. Otherwise, it could be yet another case of A24 miscalcuating a film.

All in all, expect 8-10 PTA points and a gross of $1.5 million.

Late Night (Amazon) – a high profile comedy on late night television co-starring and written by Mindy Kaling, the film focuses on a top late night talk show host (Emma Thompson) who after being accused of misogyny as the result of a ratings drop, hires Kaling to help spice up the show and break the glass ceiling among the writing staff. Both figures are quickly tested as they know that if they cannot change the show’s fortunes, they are bound to be replaced. Soon, what starts as fixing a moribund show turns into a reluctant friendship. Also starring are John Lithgow, Hugh Dancy, Ike Barinholtz (why can’t this guy fade away like 90% of the MADtv cast has?), Amy Ryan, Max Casella, and Paul Walter Hauser.

Amazon paid $14 million for the rights to this film after positive response at Sundance and they have positioned the film much like The Big Sick (the ultimate “made for Sundance” movie) from two years ago by planning a big expansion after its limited debut, holding sneak previews a week before opening, and hope that the film will play to diverse audiences like that did (The Big Sick somehow made over $40 million while the much-superior Loving failed to hit $10 million). But will it be enough? Amazon has realized the decision of opening wide right away was a bad one and has changed the platform to a limited one before its wide expansion next Friday. Which means it should have some excellent opening weekend numbers. But after that, I expect it will have to settle for the scraps. It’s not going to be a Devil Wears Prada-type success. Mindy Kaling is no Anne Hathaway.

In the end, you should see 4-6 PTA points and $10-15 million in box office.

This One’s for the Ladies (Neon/Super Ltd.) – this long-delayed documentary focuses on exotic dancing. But it’s not like Showgirls or Magic Mike. The stripping is essentially a backdrop for the underlying premise of the love and social lives of black America, told by an unfamiliar cast of characters in 82 minutes.

Neon has sat on the film for a while due to issues with the MPAA (the original SXSW cut got an NC-17 rating) and seems to have been unsure if to release the uncut version in a couple of theatres or an edited R-rated cut in wider distribution. And with a lack of promotion or buzz right before opening, this could end up being the kind of film that get one show a night at a few Alamo Drafthouses for a week before hitting VOD. You may want to throw your fake dollar bills towards another title to put in their non-existent G-string.

No PTA points and a box office number that may not report.

Box Office: The Secret Life of Pets 2, Dark Phoenix, Aladdin, Godzilla 2, Rocketman
PTA: Late Night, The Last Black Man in San Francisco, The Secret Life of Pets 2, Dark Phoenix, toss-up

Next week, Tranny handles two wide releases, Men in Black International (Sony/Columbia) and Shaft (Warner Bros./New Line), and two limited releases, American Woman (Roadside Attractions) and The Dead Don’t Die (Focus). Insight, foresight, more sight/The clock on the wall is a quarter past midnight.

[Shrykespeare]

Insight, foresight, more sight/The clock on the wall is a quarter past midnight.

I don't know why this made me laugh as hard as it did. Is this a quote or an original line?



Celebrity birthdays:

Tate Taylor turned 50 on 6/3
Imogen Poots turned 30 on 6/3
Amanda Pays turns 60 on 6/6
Anna Torv turns 40 on 6/7

[Buscemi2]

It's from DJ Shadow's Midnight in a Perfect World. If I can't create bookends with him and Dudley Moore, no one can.

[numbersix]

It's from DJ Shadow's Midnight in a Perfect World. If I can't create bookends with him and Dudley Moore, no one can.

And that is a sample (like all DJ Shadow's music) from 90s hip-hop act Organized Konfusion's "Releasing Hypnotical Gases".

[Buscemi2]

I need to brush up on my sample game. I spent more time noticing the Prince of Darkness samples from the Endtroducing... album.

[numbersix]

Is it just me or is everyone underestimating The secret Life of Pets 2? The first opened to $104m and grossed $368m, which is massive. It didn't have much competition, although Finding Dory was already out and Ice Age 4 came a little later (and disappointed). So why would this do worse? The only major problem is Toy Story 4 coming out 2 weeks later, but surely there's room for 2 kids' films until The Lion King slays everything? I'm thinking it'll make 75-80m this weekend and fnish at the $250-300 mark

Agreed on Dark Phoenix. Might even go lower. It'll be the first X-Men film I'm not bothering to see in theatres as the last one was so awful.

Think Late Night could be the sophisticated film that older audiences go for (and not Poms, which I totally got wrong). 25-30m maybe?

Predictions
1. SLOP 2 - $77m
2. Dark Phoenix - $40m
3. Aladdin - $22m
4. Godzilla 2 - $20m
5. Rocketman - $15

PTA: Late Night, Last Black Man in San Fran, SLOP2, Dark Phoenix, This One's For the Ladies

[Chienfantome]

Everyone's definitely underestimating SLOP2. The first one was huge, even if the sequel does less, and it will, I'm thinking it should be able to go at least to $250M.

[transformers2]

Everyone's definitely underestimating SLOP2. The first one was huge, even if the sequel does less, and it will, I'm thinking it should be able to go at least to $250M.

Agreed. Advertising has been real strong here for the last month or so as well, so it's not like people aren't aware that it's coming out.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Dark Phoenix is getting destroyed. Think it will open to under $30M now. The X-Men name means nothing anymore, and fans will most likely skip it since it seems to be as bad as Apocalypse.

Currently sitting at 21% on RT, compared to Apocalypse's 47%...

Spot-checking the Alamo here in town and there's a 7pm, 8pm, and 10pm on Thursday. None of those have more than 20~ seats sold. And this theater almost always sells out Thursday showings.

[undeadmonkey]

i really think everyone is just ready to forget this iteration of Xmen and see wha'ts next. Though i'm sure we'll see the MCU Fantastic Four before we see the MCU Xmen.

[Buscemi2]

Disney's going to follow the money. X-Men is marketable. Fantastic Four isn't.

[W]

Disney's going to follow the money. X-Men is marketable. Fantastic Four isn't.

They've already given Fantastic Four to Peyton Reed. I think we see it before we see a main-series X-Men reboot (meaning not counting New Mutants). In a world where Split cost $9 M and Glass cost $20 M, why the Hell is New Mutants such a problem? Put a budget small enough that even if it flops you don't care.

[Buscemi2]

I think the problems with New Mutants are simple.

1. They picked Josh Boone, a director of romantic films, to direct instead of someone versed in the action genre.

2. Was anyone clamoring for a horror version of X-Men? There are many genres they could have done with X-Men before horror.

If Fox wanted to bake their cake and eat it too, they should have gotten someone like Leigh Whannell. He could have made it on a small(er) budget, given Fox what they wanted, AND made a watchable product. It's impossible to take this seriously with the guy who gave us Midwestern A Walk to Remember.

As for Fantastic Four, I remember Peyton Reed was supposed to the 2005 one but did Fun with Dick and Jane instead. With this story seemingly unfilmable (there's been what, four feature films now that didn't work), it wouldn't surprise me to see Reed pull out again.

[W]

I think the problems with New Mutants are simple.

1. They picked Josh Boone, a director of romantic films, to direct instead of someone versed in the action genre.

2. Was anyone clamoring for a horror version of X-Men? There are many genres they could have done with X-Men before horror.

If Fox wanted to bake their cake and eat it too, they should have gotten someone like Leigh Whannell. He could have made it on a small(er) budget, given Fox what they wanted, AND made a watchable product. It's impossible to take this seriously with the guy who gave us Midwestern A Walk to Remember.

As for Fantastic Four, I remember Peyton Reed was supposed to the 2005 one but did Fun with Dick and Jane instead. With this story seemingly unfilmable (there's been what, four feature films now that didn't work), it wouldn't surprise me to see Reed pull out again.

I think a horror version is a good idea. You have a billion small characters ready to go, horror budgets can be super low, and people with super powers would be scary as shit. You're able to test the waters cheaply with characters you can just dispose of if it fails.

[Shrykespeare]

Theater Counts:

The Secret Life of Pets 2 - 4,561
Dark Phoenix - 3,721
The Last Black Man in San Francisco - 7
This One's For the Ladies - Ironically, 1


Next week:

Men In Black International - 3,800+
Shaft - 2,900+
The Dead Don't Die - 550