SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 5/31

[numbersix]

Film-makers around the world take note: we have found the golden rule of successful storytelling. Forget your 3-act structures (the Russo Brothers and Kevin Feige sure have), forget your hero’s journey, forget original stories to excite and inspire new generations. If you want your film to be a success, just make one or more of your characters blue. Worked for James Cameron’s Dances with Smurfs (it even worked for the Smurfs themselves, at first). And now Disney’s insistence on regurgitating their charming animation classics into brash, loud live(ish) action tentpoles was waning until along came Will Smith, looking like the lovechild of a Na’vi and Casper the Friendly Ghost, ensuring Aladdin made an impressive $112m in its first 4 days. Expect everyone in The Rise of Skywalker to be digitally periwinkled. Meanwhile, notably un-blue films Brightburn and Booksmart failed to ignite the box-office, despite the latter’s critical acclaim. This week three films of undisclosed hue fight for the top.




Godzilla: King of the Monsters (Warner Bros) sees our hero Godzilla waiting for his wife on Christmas Eve, only to be involved in another terrorist attack, this time at Washington Dulles International Airport. Or something. Actually, a bunch of new skyscraper-sized monsters awaken to challenge Godzilla to the tallest Royal Rumble in history, while us humans scurry away like bugs. Kyle Chandler, Millie Bobby Brown, Sally Hawkins, and Vera Farmiga star, with Mike Dougherty (of… er… Krampus) taking the directing reins.

The first Godzilla film drew audiences in with an impressive trailer and marketing campaign, earning $200m and over half a billion worldwide. Plus, this film is part of a film franchise of monsters, or the MonsterVerse, tying into 2017’s Kong: Skull Island and next year’s face-off, Godzilla Vs Kong. That could mean audiences will be drawn into a larger cinematic world. Yet… beware. The first film opened to over $90m but had an awful hold, suggesting major disappointment. And Skull Island ended up with $168m. With a very competitive summer this year, there’s a good chance this king could be dethroned as quick as [INSERT GAME OF THRONES SPOILER]. A solid mid 50s opening and a $125-150m cume looks about right. That’s not bad in BO, where the film costs $24-26, but only if you think it can hit that upper limit $150m. I suspect it won’t. As for Ultimate, you’re looking at 6-8 T5 points, 4-6 PTA points, and an IMDB score in the low 6s. It just doesn’t feel blue enough to fork out $24-25.




Next up is Ma (Universal), Blumhouse’s next outing. Octavia Spencer plays the titular anti-hero, who lets a bunch of teens party in her basement before they realise there’s something not quite right about the vol-au-vents. Cue some tight tension as the teens presumably struggle to survive and make it out to taste some fresh hors d’oeuvres. Tate Taylor (The Girl on the Train, The Help) directs.

This is a bit of a wildcard. Blumhouse are hot off the heels of Us’s somewhat precedented success. But this doesn’t seem as socially conscious as Jordan Peele’s films, nor is it based on a recognised game or brand like Ouija, nor is it a supernatural film. It seems more like a mix of The Gift ($43m) and Don’t Breathe ($89m). Spencer should provide some gravitas to the cast, but is it distinct enough? Assuming some level of WOM, this should open in the mid teens and close at the $40m mark. That’s not quite good enough for BO, nor for Ultimate where its $10/12 will net you 4 T5 points, 1 PTA point, and a high 5s IMDB score.




Last, but not least, is Rocketman (Paramount), the second of what will be many pop star blockbuster biopics. This time it’s Elton John, as he recounts his past highs and lows at an AA meeting later in his life while he’s still standing. Taron Edgerton plays ol Blue Eyes, with Dexter Fletcher (who arguably saved Bohemian Rhapsody without any significant credit) directing.

The film premiered in Cannes to rapturous applause , and the reviews have been good if not stellar, complimenting performances and the imaginative direction of the upbeat ditties and sad songs. This probably won’t be the incredible success Bohemian Rhapsody was, but it still should appeal to the majority of its audience. And that older crowd will sacrifice the opening weekend to attend later, ensuring a nice hold. A low 30s opening should result in a final tally close to $120m. Expect 6 T5 points, 5 PTA, and a mid-7s IMDB score. And who knows, maybe that Rocket Man may soar higher. This is very much worth your $16/21 in both Ultimate and BO. There must be a lot of (sparkling) blue in it.


Predictions for the weekend

1. Aladdin - $47m
2. Godzilla 2 - $46m
3. Rocketman - $33m
4. Ma - $13m
5. John Wick 3 - $12m

PTA: Aladdin, Godzilla 2, Rocketman , The Souvenir, The Tomorrow Man

Next week Boosch casts his eye over a host of new films, including The Secret Life of Pets 2, Dark Phoenix, Late Night, and indie releases This One’s For the Ladies and The Last Black Man in San Francisco.

[numbersix]

Reviews of Godzilla are making me stick to my guess, although it seems Ma might be tracking stronger than expected.

[Spectre]

I don't think reviews are going to stop Godzilla. Almost all of them agree that the monster battles are awesome which is pretty much what GA cares about. I bet it clears $60M. I wonder if Rocketman falls short of $30M with the R rating... might be close... but I bet Ma beats $13M pretty handily, maybe closer to $20M even if it doesn't quite get there.

[Walleye413]

I'm very unsure on Godzilla. Personally I am super excited about it and I'm going Friday night. But I was able to get tickets no problem for a 9:40 showing for it, which makes me think that doesn't bode well.

I think the R rating for Rocketman and Ma deflates their takes as well. Plus Aladdin is having great word of mouth. That'll be the stronger hold (even losing premium screens).

[Screen203]

I think the R rating for Rocketman and Ma deflates their takes as well.

Ma might be affected by the R rating, but most of the big horror movies have been rated R. I doubt that Rocketman will be affected very much though. It will skew older, and audiences conservative enough to be offended by the content probably won't be interested in a movie about a famously flamboyant, openly gay man. If anything, I think the fantasy elements might turn off some audiences expecting a more typical musical biopic.

[Shrykespeare]

Theater counts:

Godzilla: King of the Monsters - 4,108
Rocketman - 3,610
Ma - 2,808


Next Week:

The Secret Life of Pets 2 - 4,400
Dark Phoenix - n/a





Celebrity birthdays:

Cameron Boyce turned 20 on 5/28
Riley Keough turned 30 on 5/29
Tom Berenger turns 70 on 5/31
Teri Polo turns 50 on 6/1
Morena Baccarin turns 40 on 6/2

[numbersix]

I don't think reviews are going to stop Godzilla. Almost all of them agree that the monster battles are awesome which is pretty much what GA cares about. I bet it clears $60M. I wonder if Rocketman falls short of $30M with the R rating... might be close... but I bet Ma beats $13M pretty handily, maybe closer to $20M even if it doesn't quite get there.

Maybe, but the first film had a very poor WOM and it suffered because of that (it ended up making only 2.15 times its opening weekend, which is incredibly low), and that will impact the sequel. It's not a review-dependent film, but this could affect its WOM and those disappointed by the first will avoid it.

As for Rocketman, I agree with Screen. The R rating may affect it somewhat, but its core audience are going to be older people who tend to be Elton John's fans.

[Buscemi2]

The reviews seem to have no idea of describing what kind of film Godzilla is. Either it's getting praised for being action-heavy or criticized for not having enough human elements.

I have to wonder if they know the general public watches these movies to see complete destruction by the monsters. It's also possible many of them didn't grow up with the characters (Godzilla's always had a hard time getting distribution in the States).

Speaking of opening well but dropping fast, I'm thinking this will be the case with Ma. Reviews haven't been too glowing but it has Octavia Spencer. I feel it plays like a higher-profile horror film but it won't have legs like A Quiet Place or Hereditary.

[numbersix]

Speaking of opening well but dropping fast, I'm thinking this will be the case with Ma. Reviews haven't been too glowing but it has Octavia Spencer. I feel it plays like a higher-profile horror film but it won't have legs like A Quiet Place or Hereditary.

Agreed. This feels more like a standard Blumhouse horror, so it'll have an inevitable horror IM. Looking now like a 18m opening but that should still result in a $40m finish.

[Ron Burgundy]

I learnt recently the reason for the name: Blockbuster, which was the first Star Wars movie, having blocks of lines of people to q up to see it.

TBH, we havent seen another real blockbuster since, but i like the term, that said: im not giving Rocketman the blockbuster term, can we say i dunno, Palacebuster?

[Buscemi2]

Yardbuster.

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascores:

Rocketman: A- (below Bohemian Rhapsody's A)
Godzilla: King of the Monsters: B+ (same as Godzilla 2014)
Ma: B- (same as the director's The Girl on the Train)

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates

Godzilla: King of the Monsters, $19.6M
Aladdin, $11.9M
Rocketman, $9.2M
Ma, $7.2M
John Wick 3, $3.0M
Avengers: Endgame, $2.1M
Detective Pikachu, $1.8M



Weekend Projections:

Godzilla: King of the Monsters, $49.5M
Aladdin, $41M
Rocketman, $25M
Ma, $18M
John Wick 3, $10.7M
Avengers: Endgame, $7.7M
Detective Pikachu, $6.8M
Booksmart, $3.7M
Brightburn, $2.4M
The Hustle, $1.4M

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Godzilla: King of the Monsters, $49.0M
4 points - Aladdin, $42.3M
3 points - Rocketman, $25.0M
2 points - Ma, $18.3M
1 point - John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum, $11.1M
Avengers: Endgame, $7.8M
Detective Pikachu, $6.7M
Booksmart, $3.3M
Brightburn, $2.3M
The Hustle, $1.3M



PTA:
5 points - Godzilla: King of the Monsters
4 points - Aladdin
3 points - Rocketman
2 points - Ma
1 point - Dumbo (?)

[Buscemi2]

I believe Dumbo is playing with Aladdin at some drive-ins.