Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: May 24th-26th

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Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: May 24th-26th

Post by Buscemi2 »

Most illingest B-boy - I got that feeling / 'Cause I am most ill and I'm rhymin' and stealin' / Ali Baba and the forty thieves (x8)
– Beastie Boys “Rhymin’ and Stealin’” (1986)

This week, moviegoers are able to get a wish of their own. A wish for a new fantasy film based on a Disney classic, an original superhero film with horror elements, or a female-led raunchy teen comedy directed by a former House cast member. Also, a limited release starring two beloved actors in a sci-fi premise.

Last Week

The reign of Ballchin and Marvel’s Finest in the top spot has ended. John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum declared parabellum and beat the super-sized superhero movie by a hefty amount, $56.8 million to $30 million. Detective Pikachu continued to disappoint in third with a $25.1 million weekend (54% drop). Fourth was A Dog’s Journey, failing to reincarnate itself into repeat success from its predecessor with an $8 million weekend. Universal is needing to hope Chinese numbers are strong enough to allow for more of these Nicholas Sparks with canines stories. Rounding out the top five was The Hustle, a 53% dropper from last week with $6.1 million in grosses. The only other wide release was the DOA teen-lit adaptation The Sun is Also a Star, making only $2.5 million.

In the PTA scene, the first half of The Souvenir won with a $21,463 average. Second, third, and fourth, and fifth were John Wick, Avengers, Pikachu, and A Dog’s Journey.

When I Was a Wee “Aladdin”

The most high-profile title of the week is Guy Ritchie’s live-action version of Aladdin (Disney), based on the 1992 version of the story. I think we all know the story about the young street urchin who along with his monkey had to eat to live and steal to eat until discovering a magic lamp that contained a genie who gave him three wishes. Okay, I’ll stop there (bee yourself). Now, I’ll stop.

This live-action monstrosity stars Will Smith as the Genie, who looks like Electro from The Amazing Spider-Man 2 in Genie form and Kazaam in human form. I think I liked him more as Deadshot. As least he didn’t look ridiculous there. The majority of the cast is based of actors of Middle Eastern and South Asian ancestry to fit the Persian setting of the story (I only know of Nasim Pedrad, who was a former SNL cast member, but the decision shows we’ve come a long way ever since Disney thought audiences would believe spray-tanned Jake Gyllenhaal and Gemma Arterton as Persian so I’m glad we don’t have to complain about whitewashing this time) and Disney good luck charm Alan Tudyk as Iago (No Gilbert Gottfried? Aw, man.).

Reviews have been embargoed but early social media word is mixed. Not “worst Disney movie ever” hot take material but pure “meh” is seems like. I would say that the best compare to this is Dumbo, which was a disappointment after its big budget and large promotional campaign. However, this is being sold as more of an action film with the classic Alan Menken/Howard Ashman tracks rather than Dumbo’s “Tim Burton fantasy film that’s actually about animal rights in a way only Tim Burton could tell it” campaign. Maybe it won’t be a total wash but it’s not going to play like Beauty and the Beast did.

Potential: with the need to lower the bar (but not too much), Aladdin is a wild card. And the best thing I can say about is don’t expect too much. $67 million three-day, $83 million four-day, $185 million final.

The Stars Shine “Brightburn”

Next on the docket is a family project, Brightburn (Sony/Screen Gems). Produced by James Gunn and written by his brothers, Mark and Brian, this is a small detour in into the lower budgeted ground that Gunn cut his teeth on before becoming the big time director of franchises such as Guardians of the Galaxy and Suicide Squad.

The film focuses on a childless couple who adopts a humanoid figure that drops from the sky and raises him as their own. But before you can say, “Hey, that’s the Superman origin story!”, the boy hits puberty and his powers develop into something much more sinister. The parents now find themselves fighting against their son for the fate of the world. Elizabeth Banks and David Denham star.

This small film ($7 million budget) was almost not released. Sony considered dropping the film after Gunn’s Twitter scandal last summer, only to change their mind after Gunn got an outpouring of support from the film and comic book communities (also, he was kind of the victim in all that). But with all that in the past, Sony chose to move forward and give the film a big holiday release. However, the film finds itself in a pickle. Is it too scary for comic book/superhero fans? Too action-oriented for horror fans? In addition, Gunn’s name has not been synonymous with box office success. Outside of Guardians and Scooby-Doo, his movies haven’t been very successful financially.

Potential: if it were based on a popular character, it would have a chance (see Suicide Squad and Venom). But it’s not. Plus, the R-rating seems to limit its audience to horror fans who watch everything and adults that are a little too edgy for their own good. $7 million three-day, $9 million four-day, $16 million finish.

Your Nose in a “Booksmart”

Last of the wide releases is Booksmart (United Artists/Annapurna), the directorial debut of actress Olivia Wilde (whose birth surname of Cockburn could qualify as raunchy humor in itself). We’ve seen numerous teen comedies focusing on hijinks committed by adolescents with over-raging hormones. But those are most often from the male side (and a great many have a misogyny streak a mile wide). This time, Wilde and four screenwriters decide to tell things from the female side.

In this comedy, of which it could be described as “Superbad if HBO did it”, two overachieving teenage girls come to realize on the day of graduating high school that they wasted their life focusing on their studies and not enough time partying and improving their status as everyone at their school got into the good colleges and universities. As a result, they have a lot of catching up to do and must cram four years of partying into one crazy night. Kaitlyn Dever, a favorite of W.’s, and Beanie Feldstein play the girls, with Jason Sudeikis (Wilde’s longtime boyfriend), Lisa Kudrow, and Will Forte playing supporting roles. Dan the Automator of Deltron 3000 and many hip-hop projects scored the film.

The film has gotten wildly positive response for being a different view of high school life. But I have to wonder if it’s different enough. Take away the perspective and it feels like we’ve seen this film many times in the past. Hell, this isn’t the first time the Superbad premise has been imitated with a new spin (remember Project X?). In addition, how long before audiences shun the whole trend of actors directing movies? For every Lady Bird, there’s 5-10 Gottis. In addition, the characters, considered to be a new and different depiction of youth, just seem like stereotypes that the far-right believe exist.

Potential: the similarly hyped Eighth Grade failed to take off, even with the A24 name. Even though this is getting a much bigger release, is it going to play outside of adults who really miss high school? $6 million three-day, $8 million four-day, $18 million finish.

Arthouse Class 101

This weekend, one limited release.

The Tomorrow Man (Bleecker Street) (opens Wednesday) – John Lithgow and Blythe Danner star in this sci-fi/romance hybrid about a man preparing for the apocalypse who meets a woman who is into frivolous spending. Of course, they are meant for each other. Will love conquer all or will their obsessions tear them apart?

Early word has been mixed but the strength of the leads could be enough to allow this to be a critic-proof film. But on the other hand, the premise may be too out there for its target audience (I mean, did you see how much a film such as The Mule made?). Bleecker Street might be simply putting this one out to pasture.

In the end, I’d guess 3-6 PTA points and a gross in the mid six figures.

Box Office: Aladdin, John Wick, Avengers, Pikachu, Brightburn
PTA: Aladdin, The Souvenir, The Tomorrow Man, John Wick, Avengers

Next week, Six takes care of three wide releases, Godzilla: King of the Monsters (Warner Bros.), Rocketman (Paramount), and Ma (Universal). McLovin? What kind of a stupid name is that, Fogell? What, are you trying to be an Irish R&B singer?
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: May 24th-26th

Post by Screen203 »

I bet Brightburn does decent business. If reviews are good, I could see it opening in the same range as other Sony horror films like the Evil Dead remake and Don't Breathe.

And I'm not sure how Booksmart will do. The audience I saw the film with really enjoyed it, but the previews for it usually haven't received any kind of reaction at the movies, and the film is raunchy enough that most of the best jokes can't be aired on TV. I don't really think the politics behind the film will hurt it - it's not the kind of film that would appeal to older/ more conservative audiences anyways.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: May 24th-26th

Post by numbersix »

Think Aladdin will do better than that. Dumbo is a good comparison, but this has a better release date, is arguably more well-known and loved, and has Will Smith to boost that star power. I can see this crossed 200m mayhbe even 250.

Also think Booksmart will do a lot better than that. It's way more mainstream than Eighth Grade, is being called fresh by the critics, and I don't think it being directed by an actress is going to move the dial in any way. Even if it opens lowish WOM should give it great legs.

Burnbright will almost entirely be dependent on its buzz, which is so low at the moment. It needs reviews and to be liked by the horror crowd.

Predictions
1.Aladdin $80m (90m 4-day)
2. John Wick 3 - $25m
3. Avengers Endgame - $15m
4. Pikachu - $13m
5. Booksmart - $10m (12m 4-day)
6. Brightburn - $7m (8m 4-day)

PTA: Aladdin, The Souvenir, The Tomorrow Man, John Wick 3, Pikachu

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: May 24th-26th

Post by Shrykespeare »

Celebrity birthdays (got a lot this week):

Dave Thomas (SCTV) turned 70 on 5/20 (Take off, you hoser!)
Bronson Pinchot turned 60 on 5/20 (Don't be ri-DEEK-ulous)
Maggie Q turns 40 on 5/22
Camren Bicondova turns 20 on 5/22 (young Catwoman on Gotham)
Jim Broadbent turns 70 on 5/24
Ian McKellen turns 80 on 5/25
Anne Heche turns 50 on 5/25
Pam Grier turns 70 on 5/26
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: May 24th-26th

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Aladdin, $31M
John Wick 3, $6.6M
Avengers: Endgame, $4.2M
Detective Pikachu, $3.5M
Brightburn, $3.0M
Booksmart, $2.5M
A Dog's Journey, $1.1M



Weekend (3-day) projections:

Aladdin, $84M
John Wick 3, $23.6M ($100M total)
Avengers: Endgame, $17.2m (should hit $800M Monday)
Detective Pikachu, $13M (now over $100M)
Booksmart, $7.4M
Brightburn, $6.8M
A Dog's Journey, $4.2M
The Hustle, $3.8M
The Intruder, $2.3M
Long Shot, $1.6M
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: May 24th-26th

Post by Walleye413 »

My wife was convinced Aladdin wouldn't bomb. Smart gal. Other than marrying me of course.

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: May 24th-26th

Post by undeadmonkey »

Thankful that Aladdin is overperforming a bit, specially after Pikachu's slow start.

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: May 24th-26th

Post by Shrykespeare »

It looks like the weekend final numbers won't be posted until Tuesday, and I'm leaving town between Tuesday and Friday, so there may not be any league updates this week.


Weekend Estimates (3-day)

Top 10:
5 points - Aladdin, $86.1M
4 points - John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum, $24.3M
3 points - Avengers: Endgame, $16.8M
2 points - Detective Pikachu, $13.3M
1 point - Brightburn, $7.5M
Booksmart, $6.5M
A Dog's Journey, $4.1M
The Hustle, $3.8M
The Intruder, $2.3M
Long Shot, $1.6M


PTA:
5 points - Aladdin
4 points - John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum
3 points - The Souvenir
2 points - The Tomorrow Man
1 point - Avengers: Endgame
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: May 24th-26th

Post by transformers2 »

Boy am I thrilled that I picked Detective Pikachu over Aladdin in the MAY-JUL leagues! Serves me right for putting too much fucking stock in fugazi internet buzz
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: May 24th-26th

Post by Chienfantome »

Shrykespeare wrote:It looks like the weekend final numbers won't be posted until Tuesday, and I'm leaving town between Tuesday and Friday, so there may not be any league updates this week.
You mean we can't chain you to your computer and the BO numbers every single week of the year ? That is absolutely unacceptable !!! ;)
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: May 24th-26th

Post by Buscemi2 »

Internet addiction is a thing, Chien.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: May 24th-26th

Post by Shrykespeare »

If you get bored, you can always read one of my books, Chien. I hear they're pretty good... :lol:
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: May 24th-26th

Post by Chienfantome »

Shrykespeare wrote:If you get bored, you can always read one of my books, Chien. I hear they're pretty good... :lol:
I wish I was bored, I haven't read a book since last summer I think :cry:
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: May 24th-26th

Post by Buscemi2 »

Since last summer? I read one this weekend!

That's embarrassing, Chien.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: May 24th-26th

Post by Chienfantome »

It is, I've always been an big reader, but since last spring I've been not only the head programmer of the Korean Film Festival in Paris, but also the director of it, and between my daily job and the festival, I'm trying to catch my breath. So reading a book lately has been complicated, can't find the time, can't find the focus needed.
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