Screen's Picks: 5/17-5/19

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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Screen203
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Screen's Picks: 5/17-5/19

Post by Screen203 »

Last Week

Avengers: Endgame continued it's record breaking, although somewhat front-loaded run over Mother's Day weekend with 63 million as it attempts to become the box office King of the World until whatever James Cameron does next. Pokemon: Detective Pikachu failed to live up to the lofty expectations that many (including me) had for its performance, but debuted with an okay 54 million, on par with Shazam! and How To Train Your Dragon 3. The Hustle and Poms couldn't overcome scathing reviews to become Mother's Day choices, although the holiday helped the other holdovers. On the limited release front, The Biggest Little Farm proved to be the latest documentary hit for NEON, opening to a solid and chart-topping PTA of 22 thousand.

As for this week's releases...

John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum



The cinematic badass of our era returns after a cliffhanger at the end of his second chapter. Pretty much everyone is expecting this to increase, and I agree. Box office wise, it reminds me of the Bourne series in that each installment grosses more than the last. With raves from critics so far, I see no reason why that won't happen here.

60 million opening and 150 million total.

Great pick in Box Office, and a solid pick in Ultimate.

A Dog's Journey



The saga of Hallmark-ready dog movies continues with the sequel to the 2017 sleeper hit A Dog's Purpose. However, I don't think that this will be as popular as the first. There is an oversaturation of these movies, and it feels like kind of a cash-grab, with a mostly new cast that seems like the kind of movie that usually goes direct-to-DVD. Numbers around the last dog movie, A Dog's Way Home, seem about right.

12 million opening and 45 million total.

Not a good pick in Ultimate, but an okay one in Box Office.

The Sun Is Also A Star



MGM and Warner Bros. probably placed this here expecting it to follow in the footsteps of the modestly successful Everything, Everything. However, this seems to have nowhere near the amount of buzz around it (not that Everything, Everything has much in the way of buzz). It's pretty much a dump.

5 million opening and 12 million total.

Not a good choice in either Ultimate or Box Office.

The Souvenir



Supposedly the first part of two movies, the semi-biopic of director Joanna Hogg starring Tilda Swinton, and the acting debut of her daughter Honor Swinton Byrne, should be more successful than most (fictional) independent arthouse films have been recently. Being an A24 release and great reviews should help it in Ultimate. The supposed slow pace of the film may hurt wide appeal though.

Good choice in Ultimate, although The Last Black Man In San Francisco or The Dead Don't Die are probably better arthouse choices, but bad in Box Office.

If The Third Wife reports its Wednesday number, (after Bolden caused many shifts in lineups a few weeks ago) I will post a prediction on here.

Join us next week for when Buscemi2 covers Guy Richie's return after the classic film King Arthur: Legend of the Sword (a remake of Aladdin), new comedy classic Booksmart, the wild card Brightburn, and The Tommorow Man
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Walleye413
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Re: Screen's Picks: 5/17-5/19

Post by Walleye413 »

Again, not knowing much about the Wick franchise I like your Bourne comparison. A good comp in terms of buzz and growth. Crazy to think Keanu Reeves is going to be the guy to knock Endgame off the top spot but I think that's the likely outcome of the weekend.

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Re: Screen's Picks: 5/17-5/19

Post by Buscemi2 »

Parabellum has been tracking as high as $59 million but I thinking it opens to under $50 million. John Wick is more of a cult franchise (even though the second made $92 million) and I feel the violence might turn off some.

But maybe this is the franchise's Fury Road and has the same legs the first two did (a $50 million opening weekend would translate to a $150 million finish using the example of the first two films).
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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numbersix
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Re: Screen's Picks: 5/17-5/19

Post by numbersix »

I'd be amazed to see John Wick 3 make that much. The gain in audience was from the first to the second, and the gain in this should be entirely due to the release date rather than building its audience even more. Bourne did similar, and so taking the bump from Supremacy to ultimatum, you'd expect to see Wick opening to $40m. I could see it hitting $100m too, which is amazing for a very boyish action flick, so kudos to Keanu.

The Souvenir is seeing some of the best reviews of the year, so for me it's a must.

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Re: Screen's Picks: 5/17-5/19

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater counts:

John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum - 3,850
A Dog's Journey - 3,267
The Sun is Also a Star - 2,073
The Souvenir - 10

Slaughterhouse Rulez also debuts in 10 theaters today. Didn't someone draft that film last year or pick it up on the Waiver Wire?



Next week:

Aladdin - 4,300
Brightburn - 2,600
Booksmart - 2,300+
The Tomorrow Man - 4
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Screen's Picks: 5/17-5/19

Post by Buscemi2 »

It was a matter of time before Slaughterhouse Rulez got released. The movie was already available as in-flight entertainment on American Airlines.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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Re: Screen's Picks: 5/17-5/19

Post by Shrykespeare »

Almost forgot!

Celebrity Milestone Birthdays:

Harvey Keitel turned 80 on 5/13
Cate Blanchett turned 50 on 5/14
Mare Winningham turned 60 on 5/16
David Boreanaz turned 50 on 5/16
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Screen's Picks: 5/17-5/19

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

John Wick 3, $22.7M
Avengers: Endgame, $7.4M
Detective Pikachu, $6.3M
A Dog's Journey, $2.5M
The Hustle, $1.8M
The Intruder, $1.1M
The Sun is Also a Star, $1.0M




Weekend Projections:

John Wick 3, $59.4M
Avengers: Endgame, $29M
Detective Pikachu, $24M
A Dog's Journey, $9M
The Hustle, $6.1M
The Intruder, $3.8M
Long Shot, $3.4M
The Sun is Also a Star, $2.6M
Poms, $2.2M
Uglydolls, $1.5M
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Ron Burgundy
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Re: Screen's Picks: 5/17-5/19

Post by Ron Burgundy »

Based on these projections, you can now throw sand at six's face, great foreshadowing screen!

On a personal note about John Wick:

John Wick 1 was 8/10 for me, i really liked it
john Wick 2 was a disappointment, 5-6/10

My lil bro and his mate went to see John Wick 3 last night, both gave it a 8/10.

Keanu is a bona fida movie star, why the surprise, yes he had a down period, maybe due to his personal life, but the dude from Bill and Teds- Neo from The Matrix, A grader for sure. Plus, Keanu is gaining traction on his older films like Point Break, Speed, etc.

All that said, i think the legs will be average at best. Still, 150 is a nice take if thats possible

PS: saw today John Wick 3 has a fight scene with a NBA player Boban Marjanoic (a Giant 7"4 or something Serbian)
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Walleye413
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Re: Screen's Picks: 5/17-5/19

Post by Walleye413 »

Keanu seems to follow the John Travolta track of stardom for me. A great movie or two - everyone remembers that he's actually quite interesting and talented, and then he falls of the map for a long stretch before the cycle starts over. Fascinating to see how that can happen for some actors (Matt Damon, Andre Braugher come to mind), whereas for others if they miss their chance they're done (Brendan Fraser, pretty much all Women come to mind.)

I just rewatched The Matrix and it's still really good. Ignore the sequels and the original is still brilliant. Speed is one of my favorite action movies of all time. Keanu does good stuff, sure, but he's Lazarus - always able to find a comeback just when you think he's gone for good.

And yes I was the guy who drafted Slaughterhouse Rulez - still hoping to catch it at some point. One of my favorite comedy teams - Hot Fuzz makes me laugh just thinking about it.

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Re: Screen's Picks: 5/17-5/19

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - John Wick: Chapter 3 - Antebellum, $57.0M
4 points - Avengers: Endgame, $29.4M
3 points - Detective Pikachu, $24.8M
2 points - A Dog's Journey, $8.0M
1 point - The Hustle, $6.1M
The Intruder, $4.0M
Long Shot, $3.4M
The Sun is Also a Star, $2.6M
Poms, $2.1M
Uglydolls, $1.6M



PTA:
5 points - The Souvenir
4 points - John Wick: Chapter 3 - Antebellum
3 points - Avengers: Endgame
2 points - Detective Pikachu
1 point - A Dog's Journey
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Screen's Picks: 5/17-5/19

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - John Wick: Chapter 3 - Antebellum, $56.8M (5)
4 points - Avengers: Endgame, $30.0M (19)
3 points - Detective Pikachu, $25.1M (7)
2 points - A Dog's Journey, $8.0M (2)
1 point - The Hustle, $6.1M (4)
The Intruder, $4.0M
Long Shot, $3.3M
The Sun is Also a Star, $2.5M
Poms, $2.2M
Uglydolls, $1.8M



PTA:
5 points - The Souvenir, $19,600 (5)
4 points - John Wick: Chapter 3 - Antebellum, $14,758 (4)
3 points - Avengers: Endgame, $7,103 (18)
2 points - Detective Pikachu, $5,911 (6)
1 point - The Third Wife, $3,339 (1)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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