Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/10

[transformers2]

Turns out that there is A record that Avengers: Endgame won't break.

Marvel's monumental blockbuster showed some humility by allowing Star Wars: The Force Awakens to remain the film with the highest second weekend of all time by grossing $147.4 mil in its sophomore frame, which was good enough for #2 all time. This is likely only a brief hiatus from history making for Endgame, as the all time domestic, worldwide and God knows how many other box office records are all still in play for the juggernaut superhero team.

In the wake of Endgame's continued domination, last weekend's newcomers all faltered to varying degrees. Deon Taylor's latest B-thriller The Intruder led all debuts with just under $11 mil. With a cheap production cost ($8 mil) and social media-driven marketing campaign, this result is by no means a disaster for Sony. The under performances from the weekend's other pair of newcomers were much more damaging. Seth Rogen and Charlize Theron's Long Shot, which received good reviews and won the audience award at SXSW in March, proved once again that people really don't give a shit about R-rated comedies anymore with a weak $9.8 mil 3-day take against a $40 mil budget while STX's inaugural animated feature UglyDolls failed to recreate the BO magic of fellow jukebox musical Trolls with a miniscule $8.6 mil haul. Can this weekend's new releases turn the tide for movies not named Endgame? That remains to be seen, but here's what I think.....

Wide Releases:
The greatest threat to the Avengers crown this weekend may be a Pokemon voiced by the star of the classic American sitcom Two Guys, A Girl and A Pizza Place. What a world we live in.

Considering the sheer oddity of its premise, Detective Pikachu (Warner Brothers) seems like an elaborate gag. A live action/CGI hybrid that's essentially a police noir story starring Jigglypuff, Charzard and Psyduck is almost too insane to conceive, but alas it's a real movie with an impressive ensemble cast (Ryan Reynolds, Justice Smith, Kathryn Newton, Ken Watanabe, Bill Nighy, Karan Soni, Chris Greere) and a whole lot of positive internet chatter behind it.

Absurdity aside, Detective Pikachu has the resume of a smash hit. The video game its based on was apparently a huge hit, there hasn't been a family-aimed title that made more than $18.75 since Dumbo and Pokemon is a nostalgia market that hasn't been tapped into on the big screen to-date. Could all of the memes generated by the initial trailer be distorting the actual level of audience excitement for this? For sure, but it certainly seems like a solid bet to be one of the biggest hits of the summer. While it might not overtake Avengers this weekend, Detective Pikachu should be able to put together a very successful run before June's slew of kid-friendly options enter the fray.
Prediction: $65-83 mil OW/9-16 Top 5/4-8 PTA/low to mid 7 IMDb/$180-240 mil overall BO
Price (MAY-JUL): $31 ULT/$31 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Yes


Last May, geriatrics across the United States flocked to see their version of The Avengers in Book Club. This May, the producers of Book Club are setting their sights on establishing a Geriatric Comedy Universe with the spiritual sequel Poms (STX). Returning lead Diane Keaton enlists the help of new GCU recruits Jacki Weaver, Pam Grier, Rhea Perlman and Celia Weston to tell a story about a group of fun-loving retirement community residents who form a cheerleading squad with the hopes of entering a competition. Positive messages about aging, a main character secretly battling a life-threatening illness and jokes about saggy boobs are all likely on the early bird special-friendly dance card.

So can Poms be another surprise hit? Well, it likely has an edge over The Hustle in the Mother Day's comedy battle and the crowdpleasing formula that gave Book Club staying power appears to be here as well. However, STX still has a so-so track record as a distributor, the supporting cast of Weaver/Grier/Perlman/Weston isn't quite as recognizable as Book Club's Fonda/Bergen/Steenburgen tandem and the (seeming) lack of a romantic angle in the story could put a dent in its appeal. A finish somewhere between a pair of 2018 STX titles Adrift ($31.4 mil) and I Feel Pretty ($48.8 mil) seems likely.

Prediction: $9-14 mil OW/2-6 Top 5/0-2 PTA/low to mid 6 IMDb/$30-45 mil overall BO
Price (MAY-JUL): $8 ULT/$7 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Clearly it's not a guaranteed home run by any stretch, but it's an intriguing cheap flier pick nonetheless.


My jaw dropped when I saw some of the tracking numbers for The Hustle (United Artists/MGM). Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson have both been a part of successful comedies over the years and Mother's Day Weekend is a terrific time to release to a female-fronted comedy, but a $15-20 mil OW? Where the hell is that number coming from? The Hustle has been on the shelf for 11 months despite being completed early last year, had a trailer that was very poorly received and is being released by a studio that has consistently bungled the rollouts of their titles of late. To be honest, a low double digit opening even seems kind of bonkers right now. Unless a flurry of enthusiastic reviews come in by tomorrow night (lol), The Hustle seems destined to fall on its face and be out of theaters by the end of the month.
Prediction: $7-11 mil OW/0-3 Top 5/0-1 PTA/mid to high 4 IMDb/$18-33 mil overall BO
Price (MAY-JUL): $9 ULT/$9 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Not even worth considering


Tolkien (Fox Searchlight) features Nicholas Hoult as the titular author and details the bonds, romance and experience on the frontlines of World War I that helped shape the creation of The Lord of the Rings.

Biopics are clearly a crapshoot at the BO, especially when they're dealing with a subject like J.R.R Tolkien-who is really only known for one artistic endeavor. Putting the iconic property he's responsible for at the forefront of the marketing is a wise move, but I'm not convinced that the life story of the guy who authored the tales of Frodo and Bilbo Baggins will generate a ton of interest outside of the most hardcore LOTR fans. Ultimately, I expect Tolkien to be frontloaded as hell and end up with a final take somewhere in the teens.
Prediction: $4-8 mil OW/0-3 Top 5/0-2 PTA/low to mid 7 IMDb/$11-18 mil overall BO
Price (MAY-JUL): $4 ULT/$2 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Could be an alright BO pick, but it doesn't have enough Top 5/PTA potential to be worthwhile in ULT.


Limited Release:
Despite receiving timid reviews, The White Crow took advantage of a barren marketplace and feasted on the competition, amassing 7 PTA points in its inaugural 2 weeks of release. Armed with eerily similar credentials (same studio, veteran actor directing, indifferent critical reception), All is True (Sony Classics) should do the same this weekend. The advantage that All is True has over The White Crow is that it's about that elegant sonnet writing SOB Billy Shakespeare's final days. Anything Shakespeare-related has a bit of a built-in audience and that should be enough for it to clear $10k in PTA this weekend. The disadvantage is that A24's acclaimed drama The Souvenir hits theaters next weekend, which gives it far more imposing competition than Ralph Fiennes' film faced when it expanded and casts doubt around its long-term viability on the arthouse circuit.
Prediction: $100k OW/0 Top 5/2-5 PTA/mid to high 6 IMDb/$350-800k overall BO
Price (MAY-JUL): $4 ULT/$2 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Even in a season with very few limited releases, I don't love it. All of the A24 releases (The Last Black Man In San Francisco, The Farewell, the aforementioned The Souvenir) have higher ceilings for the same price tag.


Weekend Predictions:
1.Avengers: Endgame $74 mil
2.Detective Pikachu $68 mil
3.Poms $13 mil
4.The Hustle $9 mil
5.Long Shot $6 mil
-Tolkien $4.5 mil

PTA: Detective Pikachu, All is True, Avengers: Endgame, Poms, The White Crow

Tune in next week when Screen previews widely acclaimed British drama The Souvenir, the possible final chapter in the John Wick saga and a pair of titles aimed at public weeping enthusiasts(A Dog's Journey, The Sun is Also a Star).

[Buscemi2]

Isn't it Romantic underperformed. It would not be a surprise to see The Hustle totally flop, even though the trailer usually seems to play well when I've seen it with an audience. Also, no reviews are out yet two days before release (I'm thinking the embargo gets lifted tonight though) and it's been delayed a few times.

[Screen203]

I think The Hustle will hit tracking. It will probably do more than Poms, at least on OW, following last year when Life of the Party outdid Book Club in opening.

[numbersix]

Tolkein didn't fare very well in the UK last weekend so I expect poor results this weekend.

[Buscemi2]

In addition, negative reviews and the Tolkien estate didn't endorse the film.

[Shrykespeare]

I don't know about DetPik. Something about it just screams flop. I'll probably be wrong, but I think the shadow Endgame casts is going to be long enough to swamp Pikachu.


Celebrity milestone birthdays:

Billy Joel turns 70 on 5/9
Rosario Dawson turns 40 on 5/9
Ving Rhames turns 60 on 5/12
Harvey Keitel turns 80 on 5/13

[Buscemi2]

The way I see it, the gamers will come on Friday and the kids will come on Saturday and Sunday. The free card giveaway should add a few million (remember when everyone wanted that exclusive Mew card back in 1999?).

I'm unsure of how it will hold though. Audiences will certainly like Detective Pikachu more than critics but I have a feeling parents might complain about the violence (I'm still amazed it got a PG rather than a PG-13).

[Buscemi2]

Early weekend estimates (via Deadline):

Detective Pikachu $53.6 million
The Hustle $13.5 million
Poms $6.3 million
Tolkien $3.7 million

At this rate, Pikachu might not even hit $140 million (giving it fewer tickets sold than Pokemon: The First Movie).

[Shrykespeare]

Theater counts:

Detective Pikachu - 4,202
The Hustle - 3,067
Poms - 2,750
Tolkien - 1,495
Biggest Little Farm - 5
All is True - 4



Next week:

John Wick 3 - 3,600
A Dog's Journey - 3,200
The Sun is Also a Star - 2,100

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascores:

Detective Pikachu: A-
Poms: B+
The Hustle: B-

Nothing too encouraging but just as I figured, Detective Pikachu is playing better with audiences than with critics.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates

Detective Pikachu, $20.7M
Avengers: Endgame, $16.1M
The Hustle, $4.0M
The Intruder, $1.7M
Long Shot, $1.6M
Poms, $1.5M
Tolkien, $825K




Weekend Projections

Avengers: Endgame, $65M
Detective Pikachu, $55M
The Hustle, $14M
Long Shot, $6.5M
The Intruder, $6.2M
Poms, $5.5M
Uglydolls, $4.2M
Breakthrough, $2.6M
Captain Marvel, $2.4M
Tolkien, $2.3M

[undeadmonkey]

Great, stumbling out of the gate. awesome way to start the draft.


I realize Avengers is unprecedented with its opening weekend numbers, but, it's holds are terrible. I don't think it's going to pass The Force Awakens.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Avengers: Endgame, $63.1M ($723.5M 17-day total)
4 points - Detective Pikachu, $58.0M
3 points - The Hustle, $13.5M
2 points - The Intruder, $6.6M
1 point - Long Shot, $6.1M
Poms, $5.1M
Uglydolls, $3.9M
Breakthrough, $2.5M
Tolkien, $2.2M
Captain Marvel, $1.8M




PTA:
5 points - Detective Pikachu
4 points - Avengers: Endgame
3 points - All is True
2 points - The Hustle
1 point - The Intruder

I regret not adding Biggest Little Farm to the game. It would have won the PTA this week.

[Walleye413]

We might all have to up our Documentary game this year. They are killing it right now.

[Buscemi2]

The Biggest Little Farm has been marketed heavily (as Mickey Liddell, head of LD Entertainment, has been assisting Neon on the promotion campaign). And since his titles tend to play wide, an expansion to at least 500-600 theatres is possible.