("NOT" NEW AND "NOT" IMPROVED) Screen's Picks for 5/3-5/5

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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Screen203
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("NOT" NEW AND "NOT" IMPROVED) Screen's Picks for 5/3-5/5

Post by Screen203 »

WHATEVER
IT
TAKES


It was as inevitable as Thanos that Avengers: Endgame would break records, but no one expected the number it pulled off - 357 million, an all time record even adjusted for inflation. This week, I expect it to drop to about 180 million, still a huge amount worth picking up in both Box Office and Ultimate. As for this week's new releases ...

Long Shot



First up is what's probably my most anticipated movie of the Summer. I don't see many people in the general public being as excited for it as I am, though. I feel like the marketing for this has let it down somewhat. I have tried to avoid the marketing, but the previews I have seen make it look very slapstick-esque, which I doubt is representative of the final product. Because of this, I think that the opening will be somewhat suppressed, but will have good legs. I guess really Red states will not appreciate a movie starring a female (Hillary?) presidental cannidate. Seth Rogen still has somewhat of an audience, and Charlize Theron adds more pedigree for people who would usually not see a Rogen film, so it should still have a decent opening.

I see a 17 million opening and a 58 million total.

Should do okay in Box Office and Ultimate.

The Intruder



From Screen Gems comes another Fatal Attraction-esque "thriller". I think this will do somewhat better than movies like Unforgettable, though. The film (a loose remake of the 2003 film Cold Creek Manor) is the first real thriller released in a while, and there has been a decent amount of marketing (which probably has the best trailer out of similar Screen Gems films - not including Stage 6 productions like Don't Breathe - since No Good Deed - which I believe has the highest of the openings for movies released after 2010). Legs will fall short, as this type of B-movie does.

14 million opening, and 34 million finish.

Okay choice in Ultimate, but not as much in Box Office.

UglyDolls

[youtube]http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8fF6e0YxXL4[/youtube]

Next up is a movie that has raised plenty of ire from members on here in the trailer thread. I don't think it looks any worse than something like Trolls (not good, but better than the likes of Smurfs), but my indifference to it seems to be met by general audiences. Reviews have been okay, but not good enough to move the needle.

10 million opening, and 32 million total

Bad pick in both Box Office and Ultimate.

El Chicano



This looks like a bomb. Braircliff is still small, having never carried a successful movie, but they have not marketed this movie at all. Months ago, I thought this could succeed on the level of movies like Upgrade, but there is no buzz or any reviews out at this moment. Seems like it will not break out.

1 million opening, 3 million total.

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Re: ("NOT" NEW AND "NOT" IMPROVED) Screen's Picks for 5/3-5/

Post by numbersix »

Think you're a little high on all of the wide releases. I'd reduce all of those cumes by about 20%

No thoughts on the limited releases?

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Re: ("NOT" NEW AND "NOT" IMPROVED) Screen's Picks for 5/3-5/

Post by Buscemi2 »

The Intruder won't do much. Reviews are dreadful, the film is too short (84 minutes), and Quaid's known more for his religious movies at this point.

Expect double what Traffik did.
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Re: ("NOT" NEW AND "NOT" IMPROVED) Screen's Picks for 5/3-5/

Post by Screen203 »

numbersix wrote: No thoughts on the limited releases?
Couldn't find the number of theaters for either on Mojo - thought they were going straight to VOD.

Bolden shouldn't do much - a documentary on the subject would probably do better in this marketplace. Meeting Gorbachev should be able to do good numbers. As I stated earlier, documentaries are the safest bet in the arthouse world nowadays, and Warner Herzog's involvement, plus the positive reviews and the Cold War/Soviet setting, should lead to a decent PTA at least.
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Re: ("NOT" NEW AND "NOT" IMPROVED) Screen's Picks for 5/3-5/

Post by W »

Bolden is playing in at least three AMCs around Indianapolis. So it's probably close to 100 theaters or maybe a bit over. It's a no go except in bankrupt leagues.
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Re: ("NOT" NEW AND "NOT" IMPROVED) Screen's Picks for 5/3-5/

Post by Buscemi2 »

Bolden was getting a decent promotional campaign while I was in New York. I saw more ads for it than The Intruder and El Chicano (I saw none on the latter).
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Re: ("NOT" NEW AND "NOT" IMPROVED) Screen's Picks for 5/3-5/

Post by Walleye413 »

I'm pretty torn on all these new releases. I actually think there's an audience for all of them under normal circumstances. I just don't think these are normal circumstances. Endgame is sucking up all the oxygen. Still, law of averages says one of these rises above the rest. I'm trying to decide which one it is and choose accordingly.

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Re: ("NOT" NEW AND "NOT" IMPROVED) Screen's Picks for 5/3-5/

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

The Intruder should be able to do the same numbers as Breaking In last year, aka the Black reverse Home Alone.
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Re: ("NOT" NEW AND "NOT" IMPROVED) Screen's Picks for 5/3-5/

Post by Buscemi2 »

I was looking up Deon Taylor's filmography. He shot three movies in just over a year (The Intruder, Black and Blue, the currently without a distributor Fatale). Unfortunately, it's more than likely the other two are just as bad as The Intruder.
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Re: ("NOT" NEW AND "NOT" IMPROVED) Screen's Picks for 5/3-5/

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater counts:

Uglydolls - 3,652
Long Shot - 3,200
The Intruder - 2,222


Next week:

Pokemon Detective Pikachu - 4,100+
Poms - 2,700+
The Hustle - Wide
Tolkien - 1,300



Only the one birthday this week:

Wes Anderson turned 50 on 5/1
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: ("NOT" NEW AND "NOT" IMPROVED) Screen's Picks for 5/3-5/

Post by numbersix »

Shryke, all your posts this week seem strangely quirky and wry

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Re: ("NOT" NEW AND "NOT" IMPROVED) Screen's Picks for 5/3-5/

Post by Shrykespeare »

numbersix wrote:Shryke, all your posts this week seem strangely quirky and wry
Uh... thanks? (Can you hear my shrug all the way in Ireland?)

I've been doing a lot of the author thing this week...
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: ("NOT" NEW AND "NOT" IMPROVED) Screen's Picks for 5/3-5/

Post by numbersix »

You're an honorary Tenenbaum then

Image

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Post by Walleye413 »

If Ugly Dolls breaks out I give all credit to Kelly Clarkson she has been promoting this thing like crazy. I'll be interesting to see if she has any pull.

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Re: ("NOT" NEW AND "NOT" IMPROVED) Screen's Picks for 5/3-5/

Post by Buscemi2 »

She's more marketable than Nick Jonas and Emma Roberts, that's for sure.

And how did Janelle Monae go from Hidden Figures to this? Was the paycheck good or something?
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