Spectre Surveys the Silver Screen: The Films of April 17/19

[Spectre]

Hey, I’m doing one of these for the first time… go me!

Last week we saw a bunch of theaters committed to a fresh batch of underperformers. None of the new entries were able to top the latest spandex superhero as Shazam held up well enough, bolstered by solid reviews. Little outperformed by a little, Hellboy went to Hell, Missing Link went missing, and After was an afterthought. Teen Spirit had a spirited limited release (Fine. I’ll stop with the stupid name stuff. Sheesh.) at 11k PTA which, in a lackluster week, was good for 5 PTA points. Nothing else topped 6k. Yawn.

Well, one lackluster weekend deserves another, so allow me to welcome you to the weekend before the weekend everyone actually cares about. I thought I’d have more time to write this article but a couple of Wednesday releases tell me otherwise, so as Mario once said, here we go!

First up is Breakthrough, the first 20th Century Fox film to be distributed by Walt Disney Studios following the merger. Produced by faith-based tear merchant Devon Franklin (and Steph Curry of all people) and starring This is Us’ Chrissy Metz, Breakthrough is sure to generate all the feels. The film chronicles the story of a teenager who fell through ice and his parents as they lean on faith in God for hope that their son will have a miraculous recovery.

If this is like anything else Franklin has produced, there will be mediocre reviews, there will be tears and a happy ending, but most importantly, there will be money. The Wednesday opening takes away some of the OW juice but I think this will “breakthrough” (Ok, last one, I promise) its current projections and end up with a total take around $70M. The pricing feels about right in both Ult and BO although to be really nice in Ult, it’ll need to show enough legs to leapfrog La Llorona next week.



Latest Game Pricing: $11 ULT | $11 BO
Prediction: $18.5M OW | $70M Domestic | 7-11 Top 5 | 3-5 PTA | High 6-Low 7 IMDb
The Final Word: It’s not a bad play in BO as I think it can achieve a 5x pretty reasonably with some upside; Ult feels pretty solid too. If it shows good legs and some of the films following Endgame flop, it could back into some good Top 5 numbers. You can sure do a lot worse than this.

Speaking of doing worse, there’s another Wednesday release on the calendar from Disney(nature): Penguins. Happy Earth Day (on Monday) everyone! That means it’s time for another Disneynature documentary release. These might be cool to watch and make money for Disney but they are very much uncool for our purposes. A standard Disneynature release means that the theater count (1,700) is too high to get any PTA points and too low to do anything substantial at the box office. Even if you’re a big penguin fan, put this one on ice.



Latest Game Pricing: $5 ULT | $5 BO
Prediction: $4.7M OW | $18M Domestic | 0 Top 5 | 0 PTA | Low 7 IMDb
The Final Word: I award you no Top 5 or PTA points, and may God have mercy on your soul. Ok… it’s only $5 which won’t kill you, but this is a decent play at best in BO and an IMDb rating punt in Ult. You can do better, I believe in you!

Now onto Friday and the big gun of the week: The Curse of La Llorona. As the 6th film in the Conjuring universe, produced by James Wan and released by Warner/New Line, I had higher expectations for this before mediocre reviews started trickling out of SXSW. The Curse of La Llorona is based on a Mexican legend which should give it a little more conceptual oomph than the usual “ghost is attacking my children” plot line. And hey, who doesn’t love a good spectre? Truth be told, blah reviews don’t usually stop horror from making decent money and even though Us and Pet Sematary may have stretched the horror wallets out a little bit, this should play.

Let’s assume this one opens to the lowest take of all entries in the Conjuring universe (as it’s the most disconnected from it) and does around $60M as the reviews probably won’t let it overperform too much. It feels pretty well priced (you’re making this very boring pricing committee) which means that while I’m not jumping to put it onto my slates, it’s not a terrible bet. However, if its legs suck, it’ll drop below Breakthrough next week even if it wins the weekend which limits upside a tad.



Latest Game Pricing: $11 ULT | $11 BO
Prediction: $25M OW | $60M Domestic | 7-11 Top 5 | 2-5 PTA | Mid 6 IMDb
The Final Word: Needs to show better than expected legs to be anything exciting. 5x at the BO is alright but won’t win you a league. For Ult, the lack of non-Endgame competition next week should allow it to rack up some Top 5 points but the legs and rating are very much in question.

Next, we’re out of the megaplex and into the arthouse for some limited fare. The leader in the PTA clubhouse is A24’s football (because it’s been punted so much… get it?), Under the Silver Lake. I had hope for this, too, as David Robert Mitchell’s follow-up to It Follows… but when you’re reading “self-indulgent” in every other review, it probably doesn’t bode well for the critical reception. Sure enough, following a mixed reaction from its Cannes premiere, Under the Silver Lake got bumped back from April 2018 to December and then again to its final resting place this week, a full calendar year after its initial release date.

To make matters worse, it’s now being sent straight to VoD after this weekend meaning that you’re looking at 5 PTA points max. That, combined with a current 6.3 IMDb score is just not going to cut it; even for a relatively cheap price tag. It’s playing in NY/LA so there’s a chance it scoops up the usual A24 4-5 PTA open but given that it’s available at a much less prestigious venue next weekend (your couch), cinema snobs may pass it up. You should too.



Latest Game Pricing: $3 ULT | $1 BO
Prediction: $0M OW | $0M Domestic | 0 Top 5 | 4-5 PTA | Low 6 IMDb
The Final Word: If you’re running out of $3 fillers, this should snag some PTA in Week 1 but you’re ideally looking for something that’ll play longer than a week.

And that’s a wra… wait, there’s another film on this list? Rafiki? From Film Movement? Ok, I guess… To be fair, Rafiki has won some awards this year and it’s about a Kenyan lesbian romance so there’s a reasonable chance that it appeals to the arthouse crowd. But the IMDb rating is mediocre at 6.4 (albeit with a smaller sample size that could and should move up) and Film Movement… well, here’s a list of Film Movement releases since 2017 to top $10,000 in PTA:

Get my point? I’ll be generous and say it snags a PTA point or two in the opening week given the weak limited holdovers but unless it’s an outlier for the distributor, it won’t win the PTA crown. Next week is out too as well as even a couple theaters of expansion wreck Film Movement PTAs. It provides nothing else. It’s cheap in all contests but it’s cheap for a reason.



Latest Game Pricing: $2 ULT | $1 BO
Prediction: $0M OW | $0M Domestic | 0 Top 5 | 0-4 PTA | Mid 6 IMDb
The Final Word: This is 100% a “I need a $2 film to make the rest of my awesome slate work” play. Unless you really, really like the possibility of zeroes.

Top 5 projection: The Curse of La Llorona, Breakthrough, Shazam!, Little, Hellboy

PTA projection: Under the Silver Lake, The Curse of La Llorona, Breakthrough, Rafiki, Shazam!
^Edited to remove Teen Spirit from the PTA picture given its expansion to 696 theaters

And that’s a wrap! This was a lot of words to say “blah” but consider the films covered. Tune in next week as six gives breathless coverage to Avengers: Endgame as Thanos snaps his fingers and destroys all of this week’s films and slightly more normal coverage to The White Crow which hopes to dance its way to second place in the PTA race.

[Buscemi2]

Steph's a pretty religious guy. He also has a documentary on the Charlestown shooting getting released through Fathom in June.

But anyway, I think Breakthrough could actually win the weekend. It's Easter, it's Evangelical safe (PG rating), and it's a very buzzy film despite negative reviews. Church groups will push this one over the top.

[Chienfantome]

I hope you're right on your Llorona predictions, Spectre. If so, my 3rd place is assured on the Div A draft !

As for Under the Silver Lake, it's a shame the US distrib is handling the release of the film that way. It's a flawed but fantastic film and deserves better. It did good business in France when it was released last summer.

[numbersix]

Great write-up Spectre. Strong analysis in general. I think Curse won't make that much. Horrors tend to drop heavily after their first weekend (just look at Pet Semetary, which turned out to be no It) and this doesn't seem to be the kind of film that can escape that, i.e. it won't have amazing reviews. I'm thinking 20m over the 5 days and 45m cume.

Breakthrough, however, will be the Christian flick of the year and could indeed make $70m, so I'm going with this for the weekend.

Shame indeed about Silver Lake but those divisive reviews just won't help, despite, as Chien said, it being a decent movie.

[Buscemi2]

I remember Under the Silver Lake being promoted heavily last year before it was pushed back. Maybe A24 finally came to the realization that few wanted to see what seems to amount to a 140 minute tribute to Rodney Ascher and his wild conspiracy theories.

[Shrykespeare]

Nice writeup, Spectre. And I like the puns.

Wednesday Theater Counts:

Breakthrough - 2,764
Penguins - 1,815
Kalank - 320 (just for you, Specktor - nice move switching it for Fast Color, which only opens in 20 theaters)

Friday:

The Curse of La Llorona - 3,400+




Celebrity Birthdays (got a bunch)

Emma Thompson turned 60 on 4/15
Thomas F. Wilson (BIFF!) turned 60 on 4/15 (Don't be so gullible, McFly!)
Luke Evans turned 40 on 4/15
Sean Bean turns 60 on 4/17 (can you think of a movie his character doesn't die in? me neither)
Alia Shawkat turns 30 on 4/18
Kate Hudson turns 40 on 4/19 (wow, her resume's really dropped off, hasn't it...)
Jessica Lange turns 70 on 4/20
Clint Howard turns 60 on 4/20

[Walleye413]

Kate Hudson was the It girl for a couple of years! Dang and now nearly nothing. Crazy.

[Buscemi2]

Hudson's mainly been a fashion designer in recent years, launching a line of gymwear designed to compete with Lululemon. Kind of like Drew Barrymore's eyewear that got her a big branding deal with Wal-Mart.

The last movie I remember Hudson in was Kung Fu Panda 3.

[numbersix]

Hudson's mainly been a fashion designer in recent years, launching a line of gymwear designed to compete with Lululemon. Kind of like Drew Barrymore's eyewear that got her a big branding deal with Wal-Mart.

And Hudson's brand is a scam. Whenever you buy anything you're signed up to a yearly subscription without consent. It's an incredible breach of consumer rights.

[Buscemi2]

I kind of figured it wasn't that great. In fact, that sounds like something Gwyneth Paltrow would do.

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascores:

Breakthrough: A (I was sure this would be an A+ but still a strong score on par with Heaven is for Real's A)
Penguins: A (equals Chimpanzee and Bears' A scores as the high water mark for Disneynature)

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Hudson's also been busy having 3 kids with 3 different dads If she keeps this up, she'll be joining the NBA in no time...

And do we REALLY believe Under The Silver Lake will finally be releasing this weekend? Who would be surprised to see a last minute date push back on Friday morning

[Buscemi2]

The Evelyn Lozada of Hollywood.

[Buscemi2]

Early numbers from Deadline:

La Llorona: $9.1 million Friday/$19-20 million weekend
Breakthrough: $3.5 million Friday/$10 million 3-day
Penguins: $650,000 Friday/$1.77 million 3-day

One performing as expected and two flops. Pre-Avengers doldrums continue.

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascore:

The Curse of La Llorona: B-