Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/12

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/12

Post by transformers2 »

A little bit of wizardry can go a long way.

Shazam! further proved people are responding to the undarkening of the DC universe. This goofy, low stakes superhero adventure easily topped the BO this past weekend with a solid $53.5 mil debut. Exit polls have been excellent (A Cinemascore, 83% positive on Posttrak) for this modest production, which should allow it to have a nice 3 week run before their rivals at Marvel takes over the moviegoing world at the end of the month.

As Screen astutely predicted, Pet Sematary ended up mirroring the OW of the Evil Dead remake-which opened on the same weekend in 2013- with a $24.5 mil start. If this Stephen King adaptation continues to follow the BO pattern of Fede Alvarez's take on Sam Rami's beloved gorefest, it should make about $9-10 mil this weekend and finish with around $50 mil overall. Not a bad result at all for the rebuilding Paramount.

High Life ended up easily topping Amazing Grace in what had been billed as the first heated PTA battle of 2019 heading into the weekend. A24's psychological sci-fi drama averaged $24,835 at 4 theaters while Sydney Pollack's long-unreleased Arthea Franklin concert film made a hair under $11k per run in 8. Considering Franklin's status as a music legend and High Life's possible lack of appeal outside of the arthouse-friendly crowds it played for during its OW, it wouldn't be a surprise if the hierarchy reverses when they both expand this weekend.

Wide Releases:
Things are a little bit different for Hellboy (Lionsgate/Summit) in his return to the big screen after a nearly 11-year hiatus. Stranger Things star David Harbour has succeeded Ron Perlman as the titular demon hero, his co-workers at the Bureau for Paranormal Research and Defense have pretty much been completely overhauled and the plethora of showdowns with evil beings from all over the universe are no longer constrained to the limits of a PG-13 rating .

As much as this reboot appeals to the fans who felt Guillermo del Toro's films didn't capture the grittiness of the comics, the odds of Hellboy making a triumphant return aren't good. Even though del Toro was able to make two films, they weren't exactly mega hits (they made $59.6 and $76 mil respectively) and there's not any reason to believe that simply adding a ton of brutal violence is going to be enough to generate a ton of interest for a franchise that has lied dormant since the final months of George W. Bush's administration. The lack of reviews at this juncture also isn't a great sign for a niche property trying to reestablish itself with the bulk of the public. A frontloaded run with an OW somewhere in the teens before a swift descent seems very likely.
Prediction: $12-18 mil OW/2-6 Top 5/0-2 PTA/mid to high 6 IMDb/$30-45 mil overall BO
Price (APR-JUN): $12 ULT/$11 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Hell no


Last weekend, audiences saw what happens when a troubled teenager suddenly transforms into an adult superhero. This weekend, we get treated to another magical age-bending tale that is reminiscent of Big with Little (Universal). As you could probably infer from the title, the story focuses around a ruthless tech mogul (Regina Hall) who wakes up one day as a teenage version of herself (Marsai Martin). Issa Rae (HBO's Insecure, The Hate U Give) stars as her assistant that has to manage the company in her absence while also pointing her in the direction of the life lessons she'll need to learn in order for her to revert back to her adult body.

To be honest, this is the only wide release I have any sort of faith in this weekend. Will Packer is the Jason Blum of the comedy world with his ability to churn out several cheap, profitable productions a year, the premise screams crowdpleaser and all three leads along with supporting cast member Justin Hartley from This is Us have been aggressively promoting this project for almost a month now. While I'm ultimately not as bullish on this as our pal Nico is, I still think Little has a very good chance of edging out Hellboy for the #2 spot at the BO this weekend and holding well for the next few weeks.
Prediction: $15-23 mil OW/3-8 Top 5/1-4 PTA/low to mid 6 IMDb/$45-65 mil overall BO
Price (APR-JUN): $12 ULT/$11 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: There's definitely some sleeper potential here, but in a month where Avengers: Endgame is eating up the bulk of everyone's budget, putting a dice roll like this on your slate might not be advantageous.


Stop Motion Pixar aka Laika is back with their latest piece of painstakingly involved old-school animation in Missing Link (United Artists/Annapurna). While the company hasn't enjoyed the same level of success as the aforementioned Disney affiliate or Illumination, all of their projects have received a ton of acclaim and made between $45 and $75 domestically. Despite getting the enthusiastic critical reception (88% RT, 68 Metascore) their brand always receives, Missing Link seems like it's bound to be their lowest grossing project to-date.

Why might you ask? Is it airstream accessibility? Nope. Quirkiness is Laika's thing and this doesn't appear to be any more eccentric than any of their past releases. Crowded family market? Negative. Dumbo is already DOA and its been a month since the last animated wide release (Wonder Park) came out. The root of the problem lies with United Artists. MGM's recently re-branded conglomerate has consistently stumbled as a solo distributor and even a production company with as good of a reputation as Laika doesn't seem like they'll be able to overcome the lack of drawing power the distributor they partnered with has at the moment. Maybe this will be the time where they finally get on track, but I doubt it. I expect a modest run similar to Teen Titans Go! to the Movies and The Nut Job 2.
Prediction: $8-14 mil OW/1-4 Top 5/0-2 PTA/low to mid 7 IMDb/$22-35 mil overall BO
Price (APR-JUN): $8 ULT/$8 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Probably not


Hell, I can't remember the last time I knew less about a non-religious wide release than After (Aviron). From what I deduced from the trailer that played in front of Serenity that almost exclusively consists of lustful staring between two pretty people in their early 20's while Ariana Grande's "Dangerous Woman" plays in the background, it's about a budding romantic relationship between a good girl and some mysterious bad boy who wins her heart despite everybody around her telling her that he's bad news. Self-discovery, steamy kissing scenes, a violent blowup from the bad boy that confirms her loved ones' suspicions and a climatic tearful reconciliation are also probably on the dance card. All of these PG-13 romantic hijinks could possibly play if it had the backing of a legit distributor, but Aviron is prety much bankrupt and doesn't even bother advertising their releases anymore. Real shame that the adult acting career of Ralph Fiennes' nephew is going to start on such an unsatisfying note, although I guess that's fitting for a movie about college freshman embarking on their first notable sexual endeavors.
Prediction: $2-5 mil OW/0 Top 5/0 PTA/low to mid 5 IMDb/$5-15 mil overall BO
Price (APR-JUN): $5 ULT/$5 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: What do you think?



Limited Release:
Pushing Teen Spirit (Bleecker Street/LD) back a week was a brilliant move. With its mixed reviews and familiar premise (shy, lonely teenager who dreams of pop music stardom gets a chance to achieve her dreams by entering a prestigious international singing competition) Max Minghella's musical drama likely would've gotten steamrolled by High Life and Amazing Grace on the specialty circuit. Now that last weekend's titles are expanding and none of the wide releases look like they're going to set the world ablaze, this week's sole limited opener is pretty much a shoo-in for the PTA crown. A second week wide expansion a la Hotel Mumbai could be in the cards, which obliviously limits its ceiling, but its seemingly guaranteed 5 PTA points for a cheap price tag might make it too tantalizing to pass up in ULT.
Prediction: $75k OW/0 Top 5/5-8 PTA/mid to high 6 IMDb/$1-4 mil overall BO
Price (APR-JUN): $3 ULT/$1 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: With its status as this week's lone limited release and practically no other viable PTA titles hitting theaters over the next couple of weeks, it could prove to be a solid pickup


Weekend Predictions:
1.Shazam! $29 mil
2.Little $18 mil
3.Hellboy $15 mil
4.Missing Link $12 mil
5.Pet Sematary $10 mil
-After $3 mil

PTA: Teen Spirit, High Life, Little, Shazam!, Amazing Grace

Tune in next week when Spectre previews a loaded JC resurrection weekend slate that includes Eric Foreman as a hip youth pastor who aides in the miraculous survival of a kid who fell through some ice, Velma Dinkly squaring off with a feared icon of Mexican folklore, a long-delayed A24 title that our friends in Europe enjoyed quite a bit and Disney's “Behind the Music” documentary about the stars of the Happy Feet franchise.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/12

Post by Buscemi2 »

I'd say Laika is more stop-motion A24 than Pixar in how overhyped their movies seem to be. Kubo and the Two Strings might be the most overrated animated feature of the decade and its box office underperformance basically ended their deal with Universal. If Aardman (a label more fitting of the stop-motion Pixar title) made it, it wouldn't have gotten the praise it got and been viewed as nothing more than a minor entry in the stable.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/12

Post by Screen203 »

Lakia's only really successful film was Coraline. Ever since then, their numbers have decreased for each film. Focus really only seemed to be in the deal for the prestige, but none of their films have gone anywhere awards-wise.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/12

Post by Walleye413 »

Great write up, Tran, I'm going to have to step up my game next time.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/12

Post by Shrykespeare »

Great write-up, tranny.


Celebrity birthdays:

Keshia Knight Pulliam turned 40 on 4/9 (little Rudy Huxtable is 40??? Fuck I'm old...)
Max Von Sydow turned 90 on 4/10
Jennifer Morrison turns 40 on 4/12
Claire Danes turns 40 on 4/12
Paul Sorvino turns 80 on 4/13
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/12

Post by transformers2 »

Thanks guys
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/12

Post by Chienfantome »

I heard "After" is an instant classic, abslutely jaw-dropping cinema. If I was living in the US, I'd go see it for sure this weekend. And incite all my family and friends to go see it.
Wait what ? I have it on my FY draft slate ? You think that's why I say that ? Maybe
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/12

Post by Buscemi2 »

Early numbers (via Deadline) have all the openers flopping:

Hellboy $5.5 million Friday/$13-14 million weekend
Little $5 million Friday/$14 million weekend
Missing Link $2 million Friday/$7 million weekend
After $2.5 million Friday/$6.5 million weekend
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/12

Post by Buscemi2 »

This week's Cinemascores, none are very impressive:

Little: B+
Missing Link: B+
After: B
Hellboy: C

The most expected seems to be Missing Link, which polled the same as ParaNorman and The Boxtrolls and slightly above other science-themed stop-motion features The Pirates: Band of Misfits and Early Man. However, it was much below Kubo and the Two Strings's A Cinemascore.

The rest are disappointing. Little polled below comparable films such as Big (A), Night School (A-), Girls Trip (A+), and 13 Going on 30 (A-). Little's score does match another body-switch film though, 1987's Like Father, Like Son, a dreadful film where Kirk Cameron becomes Dudley Moore.

After polled below Endless Love (A-) and Beastly (B+) and matched Beautiful Creatures. Maybe apps will try to stop making movies now.

And though the previous films based on Hellboy weren't big in these polls (B- for the original, B for The Golden Army), the C score is on par with its negative critical reviews and just awful for this kind of film (see Pet Sematary last week, which unlike Hellboy had some critical praise). Watch a lot of theatres drop this one once Endgame opens. Hell, a few could demote it to evenings with Missing Link taking matinees for Easter weekend.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/12

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Shazam!, $6.4M
Little, $5.4M
Hellboy, $4.9M
Pet Sematary, $2.9M
After, $2.9M
Dumbo, $2.3M
Captain Marvel, $2.2M
Us, $2.1M
Missing Link, $1.6M




Weekend Projections:

Shazam!, $24.5M
Little, $15.4M
Hellboy, $12M
Dumbo, $9.3M
Pet Sematary, $9M
Captain Marvel, $8.4M
After, $7.7M
Us, $6.9M
Missing Link, $6M
The Best of Enemies, $2.2M
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/12

Post by Screen203 »

I never understood the predictions for Missing Link. If the movie didn't have a high Rotten Tomatoes score, I would have never guessed it was from Lakia (it looked almost like it was a direct-to-video movie despite the costs of stop-motion and the cast)
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/12

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Shazam!, $25.1M
4 points - Little, $15.5M
3 points - Hellboy, $12.0M
2 points - Pet Sematary, $10.0M
1 point - Dumbo, $9.2M
Captain Marvel, $8.6M
Us, $6.9M
After, $6.2M
Missing Link, $5.8M
The Best of Enemies, $2.0M




PTA:
5 points - Teen Spirit
4 points - Amazing Grace
3 points - High Life
2 points - Shazam!
1 point - Little




Shazam! looks to be on pace for about $150M, though we'll see how much interest drops once Endgame hits theaters.

Pet Sematary is on pace to do about $60M.

Dumbo will clear $100M, but not by much.

Captain Marvel will hit $400M the same weekend Endgame debuts. May get another boost after that.

Us will top out around $175M.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 4/12

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Shazam!, $24.5M (10)
4 points - Little, $15.4M (4)
3 points - Hellboy, $12.0M (3)
2 points - Pet Sematary, $9.7M (6)
1 point - Dumbo, $9.4M (9)
Captain Marvel, $8.6M
Us, $6.9M
After, $6.2M
Missing Link, $5.8M
The Best of Enemies, $2.0M




PTA:
5 points - Teen Spirit, $12,314 (5)
4 points - Amazing Grace, $6,019 (7)
3 points - Little, $5,776 (3)
2 points - Shazam!, $5,679 (6)
1 point - High Life, $5,621 (6)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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