Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: April 5th-7th

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Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: April 5th-7th

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“Get down with the genie. Shazam!” – Kool and the Gang, “Open Sesame” (1976)

This weekend, three wide release hopefuls, as well as three limited release contenders, wish for audiences to say their name at the box office (or just buy tickets online) in hopes of being a box office superhero. Or will they simply become zombies in a grave that should have never been touched?

Last Week

Dumbo flew into the top spot, albeit opening below expectations with a $46 million weekend. Despite mixed reviews, the Cinemascore was an A-, making it a decent possibility to play into the Easter holiday. Second was Us, dropping 53% to $33.2 million. Third was Captain Marvel with $20.7 million. In fourth was the anti-choice propaganda film Unplanned, taking in $6.4 million (nearly half coming from Friday). And rounding out the top five was Five Feet Apart, managing another decent hold with a $6.2 million weekend. The remaining wide openers were Hotel Mumbai with an encouraging expansion of $3.2 million in 924 theatres and The Beach Bum with a pitiful $1.8 million in 1,100 theatres, giving Matthew McConaughey yet another flop.

On the limited scene, Dumbo had the clean sweep in our game as the only title to finish with an average over $10,000. The rest of the top five was Us, Unplanned, Captain Marvel, and Hotel Mumbai.

I Am “Shazam”

The biggest title of the week is Shazam! (Warner Bros./New Line), the adaptation of the original Captain Marvel (before Marvel took the name for Carol Danvers). The character, much like another famous DC character, was first published in 1939 and was so popular that he was the basis for a 1941 serial, The Adventures of Captain Marvel. Though his popularity faded after the 40’s ended, he has been the basis for a 1970’s TV show and appeared in a few incarnations of the Superfriends cartoon.

The premise for the first feature-length adaptation of the superhero focuses on an orphaned Philadelphia (but shot in Canada) teenager who on the run after defending his Justice League-obsessed foster brother is transported into a mystical realm and is given the powers to transform himself into the all-powerful Shazam. Now, the brothers learn to use the powers for good and to do what teenagers love to do (show off the powers for YouTube, charge cell phones, get free snacks, etc.) in a film that’s been described as Superman meets Big. Zachary Levi plays the titular alter ego (Djimon Hounsou also plays a version of the character) while Mark Strong portrays the film’s villain.

This film has been in development for many years, with names such as John August and William Goldman attached to write the screenplay previously and Dwayne Johnson set to appear in an earlier version as Black Adam (he’s still attached to a separate film on the character). At one point, the film was rumored to be retooled into a sequel to Man of Steel. But in the end, the project managed to get finished unscathed in what seems to be a more innocent version of the Deadpool movies. Rather than having a smug mercenary doing the inside jokes, you have a disabled adolescent making the references.

Early word has been surprisingly positive (75 on Metacritic) and it had a $3.3 million take in sneak previews. With these strong results, Shazam! should be a no-brainer to win the weekend. But does it pass Aquaman, which was a box office monster despite lesser reviews? I’m going to say no as Aquaman had a longer window for success, being that it opened around Christmas and only had to worry about an ill-advised Deadpool 2 reissue. Shazam! comes inbetween hyped Marvel projects (I wouldn’t worry about the Hellboy reboot, which director Neil Marshall has apparently disowned). But any way you slice it, this looks like a winner on your slate.

Potential: I’m going to call a $68 million opening weekend and a $210 million finish.

“Pet” Project

Next on the docket is Pet Sematary (Paramount). A new adaptation of the Stephen King novel, those who have read the book or seen the previous film version surely already know the premise of a family moving to a new town and discover a pet cemetery where the pets might not be dead. Jason Clarke and John Lithgow star in the film.

Early reaction at SXSW was decent (71 on Metacritic) but the film seems to put itself in a bit of a quandary. On one hand, the first two-thirds are a near-exact remake of the 1989 film. On the other hand, the third act is totally different from the novel and previous adaptation. Horror fans, a very frustrating community, will complain about anything. They tend not to praise remakes. They don’t like things being different than standard genre conventions. But they often enjoy the same tried-and-true genre conventions. Either this ends up as a well-regarded update or it ends polarizing the target audience.

Potential: this looks to be a frontloaded film due to the King name and 80’s nostalgia selling point. $28 million opening, $65 million finish.

In the Presence of Mine “Enemies”

Last of the wide releases is The Best of Enemies (STX), a drama based on actual events that took place in over a decade in North Carolina. Taraji P. Henson plays an activist who after the bombing of a school wages war with the KKK over the battle to integrate Durham-area schools. The film focuses on the relationship between her and Sam Rockwell’s character, a figure chosen by the Klan to challenge the decree and keep black and white students separate. Much like the recent Green Book, the film focuses on how their feud changes their lives and those around them. Anne Heche, Wes Bentley, John Gallagher Jr., and Bruce McGill also star.

With the recent success of Green Book and BlacKkKlansman, it would seem ripe for a third film covering racism in the era of Civil Rights to find mainstream success. However, I don’t see it. STX seems to have waited too long to release the film (it was filmed two years ago) and the marketing seems to suggest more than anything that it’s a sympathetic portrayal of the Klansman character. With BlacKkKlansman still fresh in audiences’ minds, is this the best way to market this film?

Potential: basically being a dump by STX, this seems to be another example of Henson’s inability to cash in on past successes (following Hidden Figures with Proud Mary, letting this come out after What Men Want) as well as Rockwell’s inability to branch out past weird antagonists we’re supposed to like for some reasons. $5 million opening, $13 million finish.

Arthouse Class 101

Today’s lessons will focus on three titles.

Amazing Grace (Neon) – in 1972, Sydney Pollack shot footage of Aretha Franklin performing at the Temple Missionary Baptist Church in Los Angeles for Warner Bros. with plans to edit the concert into a second feature to run with Superfly. However, Pollack never finished the film due to post-production difficulties. The film would not finish production until after Pollack’s death in 2008, when the film’s producer went through a two-year process to complete the film.

Originally planned for a 2011 release, distribution was blocked by Franklin, who sued for infringement of likeness. After the discovery of Franklin’s original contract allowed for distribution, another release was attempted in 2015 but Franklin sued again. Finally, the film got a self-distributed Oscar run last November, three months after Franklin’s passing. Neon picked up the film shortly after with Time Magazine (owned by WarnerMedia) assisting its distribution.

So finally, the 37 year journey to bring Amazing Grace to wide distribution finally ends. And with the critical buzz (95 on Metacritic) and interest seemingly high, this should be another breakout documentary. I have no idea of how Neon will distribute the film but there is a strong possibility this could be another RBG. Hell, Neon would be happy if this was another Apollo 11. It would be a big surprise to see this not take off.

I expect double digit PTA points and a gross around $10 million.

High Life (A24) – the first English language film from French auteur Claire Denis, this is a sci-fi thriller about a group of convicts who are led to believe that they will be paroled if they participate in a dangerous journey into a black hole designed to find a new energy source. While on the ship, they are being studied by scientists on their sexual behaviors. Robert Pattinson, Juliette Binoche, Mia Goth, and Andre Benjamin star.

Early word has been positive (81 on Metacritic) and it meets the typical A24 formula: English language, marketable leads, lots of weird stuff happening. But this kind of sci-fi is almost never successful at the domestic box office. The premise and marketing suggest a film like Sunshine, which was one of Danny Boyle’s biggest financial flops and did damage to Cillian Murphy’s career to which he’s never recovered from. But back to this one, I have a feeling any result would be considered a success to all but A24, a label that often seems to have different ideas as to what sells.

In the end, I think this opens well but dies in expansion. 4-6 PTA points and a gross just over a million.

Peterloo (Amazon) – films about English history always seem to sell. But those films almost always seem to focus on the portrayal of the well-off or royalty. We rarely see films about the commoners or the lower classes that populated England. Mike Leigh, perhaps the premier dramatist on telling us about these anonymous figures, ventures into the 19th century for his latest film. The title Peterloo refers to a massacre in 1819 where cavalry, backed by the English government, raised hell in Manchester by entering a peaceful demonstration in Manchester promoting reform and killed 18 while injuring another 400-700 protestors. Unsurprisingly, the cavalry were viewed as heroes for their acts and little has changed since.

Originally scheduled for a Christmas release, Amazon pushed back the film to the Spring, possibly in reaction to negative critical response in the US (the film was better received in the UK). And unlike the film they did release on Christmas, Cold War, I don’t expect much of a result in the US. The intended audience for these kinds of films are more interested in seeing a fantasy world of noble kings and queens and shiny things rather than what things were really like. This audience doesn’t want to be depressed by an alternate view unrelated to their own. Also, Amazon hasn’t pushed the film and its long run time (154 minutes) makes it a hard sell to casual viewers.

I expect between 2-5 PTA points and a gross under a million.

Box Office: Shazam!, Pet Sematary, Dumbo, Us, Captain Marvel
PTA: Amazing Grace, High Life, Shazam!, Pet Sematary, Peterloo

Next week, Tranny takes on four wide releases, After (Aviron), Hellboy (Lionsgate/Summit), Little (Universal), and Missing Link (United Artists/Annapurna), and one limited release, Teen Spirit (Bleecker Street/LD Entertainment). Check out the fresh nugs, wheezin’ the juice, owwww! Buddy.
Last edited by Buscemi2 on April 4th, 2019, 5:29 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: April 5th-7th

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For me, "Shazam!" will always remind me of legendary Phoenix Suns announcer Al McCoy, who made this his trademark catchphrase after anyone on the Suns hit a three-pointer. He's been doing that since the three-pointer was introduced.

Good times. And good column, Boosh. Agree with you on just about everything.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: April 5th-7th

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Pet Sematary reminds me of the Evil Dead remake. It's based on a more mainstream film, but the beginning-of-April release date, supposed uncompromising nature, and the buzz coming out of SXSW (although not as positive - the marketing isn't claiming Pet Sematary to be "the most terrifying film ever made" like was quoted heavily in that movie's marketing) make me think it will be right at your number.

Shazam!, on the other hand, I can't see doing over the first Ant-Man's numbers (at least on OW). The marketing seems to be pushing it more towards children, and I would say Pet Sematary has gotten more buzz than Shazam! has. I still see it doing 50 million+, though.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: April 5th-7th

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Think High Life might beat Amazing Grace for this weekend, as the latter looks to be opening in about a dozen theatres, but it will be close, and the latter does have the potential to be the next $10m doc for sure.

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: April 5th-7th

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Theater counts:

Shazam! - 4,217
Pet Sematary - 3,585
The Best of Enemies - 1,705
Amazing Grace - 8
High Life - 4
Peterloo - 2



Next week:

Missing Link - 3,500
Hellboy - 3,200
Little - 2,600+
After - 2,000




Celebrity birthdays:

Ali McGraw turned 80 on 4/1
Heath Ledger would have turned 40 on 4/4
Lily James turned 30 on 4/5
Paul Rudd turns 50 on 4/6
Francis Ford Coppola turns 80 on 4/7
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: April 5th-7th

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Cinemascores:

The Best of Enemies: A
Shazam!: A
Pet Sematary: C+ (looks like my prediction of the horror fans hating it proved true)
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: April 5th-7th

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Friday estimates

Shazam!, $20.5M
Pet Sematary, $10M
Dumbo, $4.9M
Us, $4.4M
Captain Marvel, $3.5M
Best of Enemies, $1.6M
Five Feet Apart, $1.2M
Unplanned, $1M





Weekend Projections

Shazam!, $53M
Pet Sematary, $25M
Dumbo, $19.5M
Us, $14.8M
Captain Marvel, $13M
Best of Enemies, $5.3M
Five Feet Apart, $3.8M
Unplanned, $3.7M
Wonder Park, $2.4M
Dragon 3, $2.2M
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: April 5th-7th

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Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Shazam!, $53.4M
4 points - Pet Sematary, $25.0M
3 points - Dumbo, $22.2M
2 points - Us, $13.8M
1 point - Captain Marvel, $12.7M
The Best of Enemies, $4.5M
Five Feet Apart, $3.7M
Unplanned, $3.2M
Wonder Park, $2.0M
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, $2.0M




PTA:
5 points - High Life
4 points - Shazam!
3 points - Amazing Grace
2 points - Pet Sematary
1 point - Dumbo





Dumbo looks on pace for about $100M. After its 60% second-weekend drop, I doubt it will make much more.

Us passes $150M. $175M seems likely, which would put it exactly on par with Get Out.

Captain Marvel needs $26M more to hit $400M. Given the boost it's likely to get after Endgame (depending on how pivotal a role she plays), it may go all the way to $425M.

I wouldn't have pegged Five Feet Apart to earn $50M, but it still has a change. Huh.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: April 5th-7th

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Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Shazam!, $53.5M (5)
4 points - Pet Sematary, $24.5M (4)
3 points - Dumbo, $18.3M (8)
2 points - Us, $13.8M (11)
1 point - Captain Marvel, $12.4M (18)
The Best of Enemies, $4.4M
Five Feet Apart, $3.6M
Unplanned, $3.3M
Wonder Park, $2.2M
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, $2.0M




PTA:
5 points - High Life, $24,835 (5)
4 points - Shazam!, $12,688 (4)
3 points - Amazing Grace, $10,961 (3)
2 points - Peterloo, $8,667 (2)
2 points - Pet Sematary, $6,835 (1)
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: April 5th-7th

Post by undeadmonkey »

i'm actually disappointed in Shazam, was hoping for more. All superhero movies overperform, and then i bet the farm on my april slates and bam. guess everyone is waiting for Marvel.

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: April 5th-7th

Post by Ron Burgundy »

Im not a comic book dude but can anyone explain why Marvels films are FAR more successful? Is it cause of Warner Bros?
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: April 5th-7th

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Disney's power and brilliance at marketing and influencing. Also I have to admit the MCU films generally hit the right balance of lightness and intensity.

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: April 5th-7th

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Marvel made the extended universe a big thing and gives a product that's demanded and expected (the exception being Inhumans, which seems to have become non-canonical among fans). Meanwhile, DC has confused audiences with having multiple universes (DCEU, Arrowverse, DC Animated Universe) going on at the same time and consistently rebooting things every few years (we're getting, what, a third Batman origin story in less than a decade?). In addition, Warner Bros. hasn't kept its promises on creative control and perhaps has meddled more than Feige and company did at Marvel earlier in the decade.

It will be scary if the briefly considered rumor of Robinov returning to Warner Bros. happens. That would mean no more Wonder Woman or anything that doesn't star a white guy. Even worse, Jupiter Ascending 2 would surely happen.
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