Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/29

[transformers2]

Us took a pair of golden scissors to the notion that Jordan Peele was going to have a hard time sustaining an audience after the breakout success of Get Out.

Peele's sophomore directorial effort got off to a stunning $71.1 mil start, which marked the third highest debut ever for an R-rated horror flick(behind It and fellow Universal product Halloween) and best opening for an original live action property since 2009's Avatar. While the general audience reception hasn't been quite as enthusiastic as it was for Get Out, Us appears to be on pace to top that film's $176 mil domestic run and perhaps even make a run at $200+ mil if Pet Sematary-which comes out next weekend-doesn't make a huge dent in its business.

Captain Marvel unsurprisingly towered over a relatively quiet field of holdovers (#3-5 films Wonder Park, Five Feet Apart and HTTYD: The Hidden World all made under $10 mil) with a $34.2 mil third weekend-which brought its total cume to just under $321 mil. Shazam!'s increasingly bright prospects should result in a slightly less extensive run than Marvel usually enjoys at the box office, but the comic book behemoth's inaugural female-led project will pass Guardians of the Galaxy as their second-highest grossing origin story by Saturday and is still very much on track to finish as at least the seventh biggest entry (Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.2 currently holds that distinction) in the MCU thus far by the time it exits multiplexes.

Despite its less than ideal release timing in the aftermath of the Christchurch mosque shootings, Hotel Mumbai still managed to be the limited release winner of the weekend. The dramatization of several gunman engaging in a hostile takeover of the Taj Mahal Palace Hotel that was part of a series of widespread terrorist attacks that were carried out over the course of 4 days in Mumbai, India back in November 2008 just edged out Us for the PTA crown with a $22,016 average from 4 theaters. Hotel Mumbai expands wide this weekend and even with the grim outlook for the new releases not named Dumbo this weekend, I doubt that it will finish near the top of the PTA leaderboard once again.

Wide Releases:
After turning Willy Wonka into a creepy Michael Jackson-esque figure and Alice in Wonderland into a bad acid trip, Tim Burton is back to ruin... I mean remake another beloved children's classic. Dumbo (Disney)kicks off a very busy year of live action remakes for our mouse overlords and to be honest, I think it will easily be the least successful of the bunch. Will it still do very well? Of course. The cast is full of familiar faces (Danny DeVito, Colin Farrell, Michael Keaton, Eva Green, Alan Arkin), Burton's track record with family fare is very strong and it's a classic property that has warmed hearts for generations. However, the cartoon version is nearly 80 years old and the flying elephant's fanbase among modern audiences pales in comparison to the next two films getting the live action remake treatment(Aladdin and The Lion King). The lukewarm reviews (51% RT, 53 Metascore) also probably won't help in its quest to be a $200 mil+ sensation either. A total take slightly exceeding that of Mary Poppins Returns ($171.8 mil) seems reasonable.
Prediction: $55-70 mil OW/ 8-14 Top 5/4-9 PTA/high 6 to low 7 IMBb/$165-215 mil overall BO
Price (MAR-MAY): $25 ULT/$27 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Given the presence of a budget-eating juggernaut in Endgame this season, it doesn't seem like a great pick. If you're looking to spend $20+ on your #2 film, Shazam! is a couple bucks cheaper and has higher upside in both formats IMO.


Politics are something that I do not enjoy discussing in the slightest, but when you're dealing with a movie like Unplanned (Pure Flix), it's unavoidable. This project from the writers of God Not's Dead is pushing a pro-life message that I staunchly disagree with. To avoid going any further down this moral/political rabbit hole, I'll leave any other additional criticisms I have about how it handles its hot button subject matter and the beliefs of the people who produced/are championing this film to your imagination.

Shifting focus to our game, Unplanned seems like a complete non-starter. Aiming an R-rated film at an ultraconservative Christian audience combined with the distributor's lackluster track record (they haven't put out a movie that's cleared $7 mil in almost 3 years) just strikes me as a recipe for failure. There's whispers that church groups are going to buy up blocks of tickets in an attempt to extend its run, but I'm not convinced this reported course of action will end up translating to BO success.
Prediction: $2-5 mil OW/0 Top/0 PTA/low to high 3 IMDb/$5-12 mil overall BO
Price (MAR-MAY): $5 ULT/$4 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Not at all.


The Beach Bum (Neon) features Matthew McConaughey in the role he was born to play: A hard-partying, bongo-playing poet named Moondog. As excited as I am to see the face of the Just Keep Livin' movement stroll around Miami and share some positive vibes with Snoop Dogg, Isla Fisher, Zac Efron, Martin Lawrence and Jimmy Motherfucking Buffet, this easygoing stoner movie isn't likely to make a lot of waves this weekend. Neon is launching The Beach Bum in at least 750 theaters, which while understandable given how polarizing writer/director Harmony Korine's work is in every conceivable circle of the moviegoing community, puts it in the dreaded in between category for our game where both BO and ULT viability are out the window. A final take around $5 mil and maybe a PTA point or two on this weekend that features zero limited releases entering the fray would be a dream scenario.
Prediction: $1-3 mil OW/0 Top 5/0-1 PTA/low to mid 6 IMDb/$3-6 mil overall BO
Price (MAR-MAY): $4 ULT/$2 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Nah dude


Weekend Projections:
1.Dumbo $64 mil
2.Us $37 mil
3.Captain Marvel $19 mil
4.Five Feet Apart $6 mil
5.Wonder Park $4.5 mil
-Unplanned $3 mil
-The Beach Bum $2 mil

PTA: Dumbo, Us, Captain Marvel, The Mustang, Sunset

Tune in next week when Boosh previews a very dynamic slate including the DCU's latest attempt to shed its reputation as the home of bleak superhero movies, a return to a cursed pet burial ground in the beacon for supernatural activity otherwise known as Maine, an unlikely fact-based drama about a civil rights activist and KKK chapter leader teaming up to desegregate schools in a North Carolina city and Edward Cullen's unexpected journey to space to learn about the joys of fatherhood (or something like that).

[Screen203]

I could see Unplanned reaching the Top 5 unfortunately. The extremists will watch anything that reinforces their views, and they will likely get behind pro-life propaganda after New York's new abortion laws.

The producers of Unplanned supposedly filmed it "in secret" to oppose "protests" from the "shadowy forces at Planned Parenthood". The manufactured "controversy" they are creating will probably get it buzz with the far right.

[transformers2]

Turns out Hotel Mumbai is going wide this weekend (just over 900 theaters). PTA predictions have been edited to reflect that change

[Buscemi2]

I knew something was up when I saw a Bleecker Street title was playing near me in its second week. Usually, it seems like they take a while to arrive.

[Shrykespeare]

Theater Counts:

Dumbo - 4,259
Unplanned - 1,015
The Beach Bum - 1,015

Hotel Mumbai - 924




Next week:

Shazam! - 4,100+
Pet Sematary - 3,400
The Best of Enemies - 1,600+




Celebrity Birthdays;

Lee Pace turned 40 on 3/25
Aly Michalka turned 30 on 3/25
Vicki Lawrence turned 70 on 3/26
Brett Ratner turned 50 on 3/28

[Walleye413]

Very curious to see what happens with Dumbo this weekend. Especially if word of mouth is bad does it drop quickly? Does it exceed expectations after all? And how quickly will it disappear when Shazaam comes out?

[Buscemi2]

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory made millions and apparently, everyone hates that movie.

I think word of mouth will be better than the Aladdin remake in a couple of months (if not for the Disney name and Godzilla opening a week later, Aladdin would be the odds-on favorite to be the flop of the summer).

[Walleye413]

I'm with you on that - I think Aladdin is going to bomb!

[Buscemi2]

I don't like the chances of any of the Memorial Day movies. Aladdin's had too much backlash, BrightBurn looks too dark for mainstream audiences (and James Gunn without Marvel or Scooby-Doo's been forgettable at the box office), Booksmart is just Superbad if Lena Dunham made it, and Ad Astra won't make its date (rumors have Disney pulling it from the release schedule completely and possibly shopping it to another distributor). But of course, I'll save my full analysis for when the time comes.

[Screen203]

I doubt general audiences know about the "backlash" about Aladdin.

And Brightburn likely won't be any darker than, say, Hereditary. I can't see it being too controversial.

[W]

Dumbo had a $2.6 M Thursday. Comparable to Cinderella's $2.3 M Thursday, $67.8 M OW. So around $70-75 M OW.

[Buscemi2]

Dumbo's underperforming but word of mouth seems to be pretty good. Cinemascore's an A- (a bit below some of the other live-action remakes but still strong).

[W]

Yeah. Deadline has it at $15 M Friday, $46-49 M OW. I just saw it and it was a slow one.

[Buscemi2]

I kind of figured the 45-50 extra minutes of plot would hurt it (the original was just over an hour). Surprised this hasn't gotten similar complaints to Peter Jackson's King Kong for the expanded story.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates

Dumbo, $15.3M
Us, $10.2M
Captain Marvel, $5.5M
Unplanned, $3.0M
Five Feet Apart, $2.0M
Wonder Park, $1.2M
Dragon 3, $1.1M
Hotel Mumbai, $1.1M



Weekend Projections

Dumbo, $49M
Us, $32M
Captain Marvel, $20.5M
Five Feet Apart, $6M
Unplanned, $5.2M
Wonder Park, $4.3M
Dragon 3, $4.3M
Hotel Mumbai, $3.3M
Madea Funeral, $2.7M
The Beach Bum, $1.5M
Gloria Bell, $1M


PTA:
The Beach Bum, $15K (105 theaters, not 1,050 as originally reported)
Dumbo, $11.5K
Us, $8.5K
Captain Marvel, $5.1K
Unplanned, $4.9K