Screen's Picks for 3/15-3/17

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Screen203
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Screen's Picks for 3/15-3/17

Post by Screen203 »

Last Week -
Captain Marvel overcame a campaign from a particular group of right-wing extremists to open to a massive 153 million dollars. Studios wisely avoided releasing any other releases against the blockbuster, but A24's critically acclaimed remake of the Chilean film Gloria, Gloria Bell starring Julianne Moore and John Tuttoro, did expectedly big business.

Five Feet Apart


Although their low budgets guarantee a solid mint, teen movies seem to have a set range. Movies like Everything, Everything and Paper Towns never seem to live up to their breakout expectations. I don't see how this will change with Five Feet Apart. The Fault In Our Stars-esque premise and the well cut previews should help this do a little above average.

Will do okay in Box Office, but not much in Ultimate (unless it has a good PTA.)

13 million opening, 40 million finish.

Wonder Park


Wonder Park will definitely not fail because of lack of marketing. Trailers have been running since July, and the film is being promoted on Amazon's website. However, the actual quality of the marketing is in question. Trailers don't give a clear storyline, and there is no stand-out,crowd pleasing jokes to offset this. It seems to be a kids-only affair in a marketplace filled with more appealing and recognizable movies for families. Spring Break could help, but Dumbo will crush this.

Not a good pick in either Box Office or Ultimate (IMBD/reviews, and PTA won't do anything special).

12 million opening, high 30s finish

No Manches Frida 2



This sequel to the hit foreign comedy seems to have a decent amount of awareness: the trailer has almost 3 million views. I could see this being a sleeper.

5 million opening, double digits total

Okay pick in Box Office, but decent pick in Ultimate.
Captive State



The premise behind Captive State is definitely intriguing - a political sci-fi movie along the lines of District 9 about aliens running the government. However, the marketing has done nothing to build on this intriguing premise. The film seems like a dump: it has been moved around multiple times and there are no reviews available (if Focus was confident in this they would have premiered it at South by Southwest). The marketing has less relied on the premise and more on John Goodman in a sci-fi role after 10 Cloverfield Lane. It seems like a bomb. Wouldn't be surprised if No Manches Frida 2 grosses more in the end.

Mid to low single digits opening with a cume around 10 million

Not a good pick in Box Office or Ultimate.



Produced by Robert Redford, The Mustang seems lik ed it could be a sleeper in the making: it's based on a true story and has great reviews behind it. Competition from Gloria Bell seems to be the only thing that could hinder it.

Good PTA with wide appeal.

Not great in Box Office, but great in Ultimate.

Ash Is Purest White



This Chinese import should not be as big as The Wandering Earth was, but should find an audience because of it's great reviews.

Good PTA and run.

Nothing in Box Office, but good in Ultimate.

The Aftermath



On paper, this must have seemed like a success: it's a (post) wartime drama starring notable actors, and Ridley Scott is producing. However, reviews have been terrible for such a high profile low profile movie. The prestige may help on opening, but it will fall apart after.

Decent PTA first week, then a collapse as it goes wider.

Not good in Box Office, but you could do worse in Ultimate, though I still wouldn't reccomend it.

The Hummingbird Project



Indie with mixed reviews and nothing to offer except seeing Jesse Eisenberg in his typecast role.

Not much in Box Office or Ultimate.

PTA nothing special.

Join us next week for when numbersix covers the follow-up to Get Out, Us, and the follow-up to Spring Breakers, The Beach Bum.
Last edited by Screen203 on March 15th, 2019, 7:36 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Screen's Picks for 3/15-3/17

Post by Buscemi2 »

It's been revealed that Wonder Park (I still shake my head at that title) does not have a "directed by" credit. The last film I can recall not having one was The Pebble and the Penguin back in 1995 (Don Bluth removed his name from that film after issues with MGM).
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Re: Screen's Picks for 3/15-3/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater counts:

Wonder Park - 3,838
Five Feet Apart - 2,803
Captive State - 2,547
No Manches Frida 2 - 472
The Aftermath - 5
The Mustang - 4



Next week:

Us - 3,600+




Celebrity birthdays:

Terrence Howard turned 50 on 3/11
Victor Garber turns 70 on 3/16
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Screen's Picks for 3/15-3/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

I love that Doctor Who: Logopolis is coming back to theaters this weekend. It is the 1981 film that featured Tom Baker in his last performance as the immortal Fourth Doctor as well as Anthony Ainley in his first appearance as the resurrected Master.

1981 was also the year they slightly revamped the music and the opening title sequence, made it more 80's-ish.

Logopolis was not my favorite of Tom Baker's stories, but it was the first one I ever saw that featured a regeneration scene. Anyone know how many theaters will be showing it?
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Re: Screen's Picks for 3/15-3/17

Post by Buscemi2 »

It's Fathom Events so expect at least 400-500 theatres (edit: it showed in 428 theatres and made $143,248, finishing in twelfth on Wednesday).
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Re: Screen's Picks for 3/15-3/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Thor's XX-chromosome counterpart, $19.6M
One Point Two Yards Apart, $5.4M
Animated Amusement Park, $5.3M
Hiccup & Toothless' Swan Song, $2.5M
T. Perry's Death is a Drag, $2.2M
No Frida Sleeves (That's the actual translation), $1.3M
District 9 Red State, $1.3M



Weekend Projections:

Captain Marvel, $70M
Wonder Park, $18M
Five Feet Apart, $13M
Dragon 3, $9.5M
Madea Family Funeral, $7.9M
Captive State, $3.4M
LEGO Movie 2, $2.2M
Alita: Battle Angel, $1.9M
Isn't It Romantic, $1.3M
Green Book, $1.3M



PTA:

The Mustang, $21.2K
Captain Marvel, $16.2K
The Aftermath, $12K
No Manches Frida 2, $8.4K
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Screen's Picks for 3/15-3/17

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Better than expected for Wonder Park. I don't know how it's doing so well with so many better recieved films for families.
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Re: Screen's Picks for 3/15-3/17

Post by silversurfer19 »

Possible $4m opening for No Marches Friday, I will take that for my draft slate as a last minute swap!

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Re: Screen's Picks for 3/15-3/17

Post by numbersix »

Screen203 wrote:Better than expected for Wonder Park. I don't know how it's doing so well with so many better recieved films for families.
Depends what you mean by families. If you're looking at kids closer to 10 then obviously Marvel have that. But for younger kids there has been virtually nothing this year besides LEGO 2. And reviews don't matter- pretty sure the Alvin and the Chipmunks series or the Smurfs movies got slated too. I was always dubious of the tracking on Wonder Park

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Re: Screen's Picks for 3/15-3/17

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Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Captain Marvel, $69.3M
4 points - Wonder Park, $16.0M
3 points - Five Feet Apart, $13.1M
2 points - How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, $9.3M
1 point - Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral, $8.0M
No Manches Frida 2, $3.9M
Captive State, $3.2M
The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part, $2.1M
Alita: Battle Angel, $1.9M
Green Book, $1.3M



PTA:
5 points - The Mustang
4 points - Captain Marvel
3 points - The Aftermath
2 points - Gloria Bell
1 point - The Hummingbird Project

No Manches Frida 2 and Ash is Purest White just missed.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Screen's Picks for 3/15-3/17

Post by Screen203 »

At least Alvin and the Chipmunks and Smurfs had brand names. Wonder Park seems like a movie you would find at the Walmart bargain bin, and those type of movies generally don't do anything unless there is a drought in kid's movies.
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Re: Screen's Picks for 3/15-3/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

Nancy Drew didn't report. Huh. Didn't it open in a few hundred theaters?
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Re: Screen's Picks for 3/15-3/17

Post by Buscemi2 »

Yes, a bunch of AMC's showed it.
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Re: Screen's Picks for 3/15-3/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Captain Marvel, $68.0M (10)
4 points - Wonder Park, $15.9M (4)
3 points - Five Feet Apart, $13.2M (3)
2 points - How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, $9.3M (16)
1 point - Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral, $7.8M (8)
No Manches Frida 2, $3.8M
Captive State, $3.1M
The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part, $2.2M
Alita: Battle Angel, $1.9M
Green Book, $1.3M



PTA:
5 points - The Mustang, $17,914 (5)
4 points - Captain Marvel, $15,775 (9)
3 points - The Aftermath, $11,284 (3)
2 points - Gloria Bell, $9,347 (6)
1 point - The Hummingbird Project, $8,551 (1)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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