Walleye's Weekly Winners - 3/6/19

[Walleye413]

Have you been missing your MCU? Well fear not, true believer, because our long, national nightmare is over! There have been some valiant placeholders trying desperately to keep moviegoers entertained in 2019. Just this past week we had one of our first (deserving) repeat winners in How to Train your Dragon 3. Madea gave it one last hurrah. Greta was a thing. Climax, ahem, came out on top. But really, haven’t we all just been waiting for Brie Larson to kick butt?

Well, you’ll have to wait a little while longer. Because we have two other entries to consider this week - one of which I think has a ton of potential.

Now, I’m a big Julianne Moore fan - have been since her Soap Opera days to be truthful. She makes just about any movie worth watching, but I’m not convinced Gloria Bell is going to breakthrough for her. This remake of a Chilean hit is the story of a 50ish woman who craves the dance club scene? That has got to a niche audience for sure. Reviews are average as well as the IMDB rating. No - most every woman in America will be attending the other female fronted flick this week - take a pass on Gloria in all formats. If you’re interested check out the original Gloria on Amazon instead.

But I would take a good long look at The Kid. In all fairness, I loved The Magnificent Seven. It’s one of my favorite movies of the past couple years (probably because my oldest son and I watched it together and we both really enjoyed it.) So when we saw the previews for this we were both stoked. It’s like a mini MS reunion - Ethan Hawke, Vincent D’Onofrio, and a nearly unrecognizable Chris Pratt. Plus Dane DeHaan in a role worthy of his talents. Seriously, I’m excited for this movie. But I also think it’s being handled well for game purposes. It’s clever counter-programming against the biggest movie of the season. Most of those actors have cult followings already. Low theatre count. It’ll be the PTA runner-up for sure, and if it doesn’t expand too quickly it could steal some more points against the onslaught of movies next week. Consider The Kid, in Ultimate for sure.

But really, you’re here for Captain Marvel. Launching into 4000+ screens, this movie is going to be big. How big is up for a little debate. There are potential drawbacks. It’s second to the gate in terms of women superhero movies (kudos Wonder Woman). Anticipation for Avengers: Endgame is at an all-time high so do we really want to watch an appetizer when we’re all hungry for the main course? But whatever negatives you can claim are far outweighed by the positives. The MCU rules all and this will be no exception. I predict a $100 million+ opening on its way to 365 million final tally. That’ll get you an obscene amount of Top 5 points, at least a dozen PTA and a decent enough IMDB score (in spite of the haters.) If it’s not on your slates it should be - you’re not winning without it. Toothless, Dumbo, and Us combined won’t match it. Now, I just hope it’s actually good.

That’s it. Join us next week when a ridiculous number of mid-range movies try to catch fire in Marvel’s wake. Don’t bet on it.

Top 5
Captain Marvel
HTTYD3
Madea
Alita
The Lego Movie

PTA
Captain Marvel
The Kid
Gloria Bell
Climax
(Insert your own movie here)

[Buscemi2]

Gloria Bell has an 84 on Metacritic. Between a strong marketing push and A24 distributing, it should be good for double-digit PTA points and a $3-4 million gross. Maybe you just don't care much for Sebastian Leilo, Walleye (though I will give you credit for recommending the original film).

As for The Kid, I'm not expecting anything. D'Onofrio's last directorial effort (a horror musical called Don't Go in the Woods) was unwatchable and I'm convinced this is only getting 250 theatres because Chris Pratt's in the cast. Some of that P&A money should have gone into Dragged Across Concrete, which despite the 160 minute run time could get some interest from fans of Zahler's last two films and those who like Mel Gibson films.

[numbersix]

Gotta agree with Boosch on this one. Gloria Bell is going to be a great Ultimate pick. Nothing but rave reviews, and the ultimate counter-programming film as it will interest older female audiences. It should perform like The Wife did last year. The Kid feels like a dump, and who is going to watch this instead of Captain Marvel? It's the MCU that made Pratt who he is today, so going against it feel like a weird move.

Spot on analysis on Captain Marvel, though I could see it opening a little higher. Surely everyone who has watched Infinity War will have to watch this, as she's integral to what's going to happen. MCU is basically a more acceptable class-A narcotic.

[Shrykespeare]

Theater counts:

Captain Marvel - 4,310
The Kid - 268
Gloria Bell - 5



Next week:

Wonder Park - 3,500
Five Feet Apart - 2,600
Captive State - 2,200
No Manches Frida 2 - 450
The Aftermath - 5
The Mustang - 4





Celebrity birthdays:

Chaz Bono turned 50 on 3/4
Tom Arnold turned 60 on 3/6
Aidan Quinn turns 60 on 3/8
Oscar Isaac turns 40 on 3/9

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Think Captain Marvel can open to $150M.

[transformers2]

Absolutely. $135-145 seems like the floor and I honestly wouldn't be stunned if it ended up over $160.

[Buscemi2]

Maybe those men's rights people will finally shut up when this is a hit. Though all that "Brie Larson is killing Marvel" nonsense seems to have affected the reviews (65 on Metacritic feels low for Marvel).

[W]

Maybe those men's rights people will finally shut up when this is a hit. Though all that "Brie Larson is killing Marvel" nonsense seems to have affected the reviews (65 on Metacritic feels low for Marvel).

It’s not as fun as a typical Marvel movie. It tries to be slightly more political than a typical Marvel movie, but not by much and it doesn’t really land. It reminds me a bit of Green Lantern. If it weren’t Marvel I think it’d get those comparisons. Much of the CGI looked bad (especially in the final act when she’s flying around).

Brie didn’t kill anything. I liked her. I liked the character. I didn’t like that she’s now overpowered and basically Marvels Superman.

There’s a reason for the lower rating. I think you overestimate a lot of these groups. I’ve seen you post more about Bronies, Men’s rights, alt-right, etc than I’ve actually seen in the wild. But I tend to stay away from places they’d be (Facebook, Twitter, etc).

[Buscemi2]

I pissed some guy off on Facebook by saying the movie looked like Green Lantern. Of course, he's always into these nerdy things and can't accept when one doesn't go the way he wants it too (though he eventually accepted the failure of Inhumans).

And I choose to bring up a lot of these groups because if we don't fight them, they only get more powerful. The Bronies has mainly disappeared as they couldn't accept their movie wasn't any good but the rest are still heavy in influence (I can barely read AskReddit anymore as it's just men's rights talking points and conservatives complaining about how Reddit is too liberal now).

[Screen203]

The alt-right/MRA's won't shut up when Captain Marvel becomes a huge hit. They'll make excuses as to why it "bombed" or some stupid shit like that.

[Walleye413]

It's possible I underestimated Captain Marvel just a touch

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates

Captain Marvel, $61.4M
How to Train Your Dragon, $3.3M
Madea Family Funeral, $3.2M
Alita: Battle Angel, $800K
LEGO Movie 2, $800K
Isn't It Romantic, $700K
Green Book, $672K


Early Weekend Projections

Captain Marvel, $153M
How to Train Your Dragon, $15.9M
Madea Family Funeral, $12.3M
LEGO Movie 2, $3.9M
Alita: Battle Angel, $3.2M
Green Book, $2.6M
Fighting With My Family, $2.4M
Isn't It Romantic, $2.4M
Greta, $2.1M
What Men Want, $2.0M


That would be a PTA of over $35K for Captain Marvel. Tough to beat, but no word on Gloria Bell yet.

[Buscemi2]

Captain Marvel had an A Cinemascore. Which is good. But the opening night demographics of 61% male are troubling. It seemed like this one would be close to a 50-50 split.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Captain Marvel, $153.0M
4 points - How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, $14.7M
3 points - Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral, $12.0M
2 points - The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part, $3.8M
1 point - Alita: Battle Angel, $3.2M
Green Book, $2.5M
Isn't It Romantic, $2.4M
Fighting With My Family, $2.2M
Greta, $2.2M
Apollo 11, 1.3M
What Men Want, $1.2M
The Upside, $1.0M


How funny that Green Book has been in the Top 20 for going on four months now, has earned over $80M, and has finished no higher than sixth on any given weekend (and has done so SIX times).




PTA:
5 points - Captain Marvel, $35.5K
4 points - Gloria Bell, $31.0K
3 points - Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral, $4.9K
2 points - Climax, $4.0K
1 point - How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, $3.6K





HTTYD 3 seems destined for $150M. Not great, but not a total failure either.

Madea Family Funeral is the eighth Madea movie. All eclipsed $50M except for Boo 2, and the highest grossing one was Madea Goes to Jail ($90M). Funeral will likely end up in the Top 3, around $75M.

LEGO 2 will hit $100M, but not much above that.

[Buscemi2]

And Green Book is only the sixth biggest film to never hit the Top 5. It might have enough steam to finish as the fourth most successful.

The list: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/d ... er5&p=.htm.