Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/27, 3/1
Posted: February 27th, 2019, 8:25 pm
A slow, late February weekend didn't prevent How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World from flying high.
The trilogy capper proved plenty of people still cared about How to Train Your Dragon nearly 10 years after it started by racking up $55 mil over the weekend, which marked a new high for the franchise. With stellar WOM/reviews and seemingly no other viable family-aimed titles hitting theaters until Dumbo at the end of March, The Hidden World appears set to go on a lengthy run and could ultimately end up surpassing the original's $217.5 mil take in the process.
Sadly for Hollywood, Hiccup and Toothless's final ride was the only true success story of the weekend. Previous #1 film Alita: Battle Angel bucked the trend of James Cameron titles holding well with a nearly 57% drop in its sophomore frame, Fighting with My Family's wide expansion only broke the low-end of MGM's projections ($7.8 mil) and the Tim Tebow-produced Run the Race failed to reel in the Christian audiences mustering an underwhelming $2.2 mil debut in 852 theaters.
Limited holdovers Everybody Knows and Birds of Passage also failed to light it up, but their respective PTA averages ($4,412 and $3,662) were still enough to further bolster their performances in our game. Everybody Knows' 14 PTA point total looks like it's going to be really hard to top in any league that's currently running, so kudos to anybody who picked it.
Wide Releases:
After 14 years and 8 movies, a cinematic icon is saying farewell to the big screen. Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral (Lionsgate) is supposed to be the last ride for everybody's favorite gun-toting, God-loving, life advice-spewing geriatric. Would it be a surprise if Madea was resurrected at some point down the line? Absolutely not. The character was the catalyst behind Perry's ascent in the industry and has been responsible for the bulk of his BO success over the years (6 of his 10 highest grossing movies including the top 4 are Madea projects).
Operating under the assumption that this is indeed the final Madea movie (Lionsgate has made that fact the focal point of the marketing), this has a real shot of overindexing. As much of a punchline as the character has become over the years, it's been proven over and over again that she has a strong fanbase and they'll likely come out in droves to say goodbye. An opening in the low-to-mid 20's before the huge post-OW dip Perry's movies tend to experience seems likely.
Prediction: $24 mil OW/5-9 Top 5 points/3-7 PTA points/mid-to-high 4 IMDb/$50-65 mil total BO
Price (MAR-MAY): $12 ULT/$13 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: With a pretty solid BO floor and low volume of wide releases on the docket this month, it's definitely worth considering (especially on FEB-APR slates)
Greta (Focus) marks the rare immediate wide release for Universal's specialty label. While it makes sense for them to commit to a 2,000+ theater release for a seemingly accessible stalker thriller led by a pair of respected actors (Isabelle Huppert, Chloe Grace Moretz) on a weekend with minimal competition, Greta doesn't appear to be in a great spot to succeed. Reviews following its premiere at Toronto last September were mixed and since it falls under the category of too trashy for the indie crowd yet too artsy for the mainstream horror crowd, it appears destined to fall into the dreaded no man's land category of both the BO and our game.
Prediction: $3 mil/0 Top 5 points/0 PTA points/low-to-mid 6 IMDb/$5-8 mil total BO
Price (MAR-MAY): $4 ULT/$2 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Definite avoid in ULT, probable avoid in BO
Limited Releases:
Hot off the heels off the financial and awards success of Bohemian Rhapsody, rock renegades Styx (Film Movement) enter the biopic game with a film that shines a light on their creative process, endless debauchery and how much they've earned from commercial cruise lines using “Come Sail Away” in their advertising. Oh shit, my bad this is actually a German survival drama that's been described by several critics as a politically-charged version of All is Lost. It's gotten good reviews (91% RT, 78 Metascore), but it's from a tiny indie studio in Film Movement, so it'll likely fizzle out even in a relatively wide open limited market.
Prediction: 0-1 PTA/low-to-mid 7 IMDb/less than 1 mil BO
Price: (MAR-MAY): $2 ULT/$1 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Nope
Even though it'll be opening in Austin and San Francisco in addition to the usual New York/Los Angeles limited launch, Climax (A24) seems poised to take this weekend's PTA crown. Gaspar Noe is an envelope-pushing filmmaker that has a bit of a cult following, reception from its overseas release/festival screenings last year has been largely enthusiastic and A24 tends to be great at launching limited releases. Given its cheap price ULT tag ($3) and the weak field of specialty titles I've mentioned repeatedly in this piece, this psychedelic horror dance film could end up being one of the better value picks of the season.
Prediction: 4-10 PTA/low-to-mid 7 IMDb/$800k-$1.5 mil total BO
Price (MAY-MAY): $3 ULT/$1 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: More than likely, yes
Weekend Projections:
1.How to Train Your Dragon $31 mil
2.A Madea Family Funeral $24 mil
3.Alita: Battle Angel $7 mil
4.The Lego Movie 2 $6 mil
5.Fighting with My Family $5 mil
PTA: Climax, A Madea Family Funeral, How to Train Your Dragon, Everybody Knows, Styx
Tune in next week when Walleye previews Marvel's next game-changing sensation, Sebastian Lelio's English-language remake of his own acclaimed film and a semi-biographical western helmed by Vincent D'Onofrio.
The trilogy capper proved plenty of people still cared about How to Train Your Dragon nearly 10 years after it started by racking up $55 mil over the weekend, which marked a new high for the franchise. With stellar WOM/reviews and seemingly no other viable family-aimed titles hitting theaters until Dumbo at the end of March, The Hidden World appears set to go on a lengthy run and could ultimately end up surpassing the original's $217.5 mil take in the process.
Sadly for Hollywood, Hiccup and Toothless's final ride was the only true success story of the weekend. Previous #1 film Alita: Battle Angel bucked the trend of James Cameron titles holding well with a nearly 57% drop in its sophomore frame, Fighting with My Family's wide expansion only broke the low-end of MGM's projections ($7.8 mil) and the Tim Tebow-produced Run the Race failed to reel in the Christian audiences mustering an underwhelming $2.2 mil debut in 852 theaters.
Limited holdovers Everybody Knows and Birds of Passage also failed to light it up, but their respective PTA averages ($4,412 and $3,662) were still enough to further bolster their performances in our game. Everybody Knows' 14 PTA point total looks like it's going to be really hard to top in any league that's currently running, so kudos to anybody who picked it.
Wide Releases:
After 14 years and 8 movies, a cinematic icon is saying farewell to the big screen. Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral (Lionsgate) is supposed to be the last ride for everybody's favorite gun-toting, God-loving, life advice-spewing geriatric. Would it be a surprise if Madea was resurrected at some point down the line? Absolutely not. The character was the catalyst behind Perry's ascent in the industry and has been responsible for the bulk of his BO success over the years (6 of his 10 highest grossing movies including the top 4 are Madea projects).
Operating under the assumption that this is indeed the final Madea movie (Lionsgate has made that fact the focal point of the marketing), this has a real shot of overindexing. As much of a punchline as the character has become over the years, it's been proven over and over again that she has a strong fanbase and they'll likely come out in droves to say goodbye. An opening in the low-to-mid 20's before the huge post-OW dip Perry's movies tend to experience seems likely.
Prediction: $24 mil OW/5-9 Top 5 points/3-7 PTA points/mid-to-high 4 IMDb/$50-65 mil total BO
Price (MAR-MAY): $12 ULT/$13 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: With a pretty solid BO floor and low volume of wide releases on the docket this month, it's definitely worth considering (especially on FEB-APR slates)
Greta (Focus) marks the rare immediate wide release for Universal's specialty label. While it makes sense for them to commit to a 2,000+ theater release for a seemingly accessible stalker thriller led by a pair of respected actors (Isabelle Huppert, Chloe Grace Moretz) on a weekend with minimal competition, Greta doesn't appear to be in a great spot to succeed. Reviews following its premiere at Toronto last September were mixed and since it falls under the category of too trashy for the indie crowd yet too artsy for the mainstream horror crowd, it appears destined to fall into the dreaded no man's land category of both the BO and our game.
Prediction: $3 mil/0 Top 5 points/0 PTA points/low-to-mid 6 IMDb/$5-8 mil total BO
Price (MAR-MAY): $4 ULT/$2 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Definite avoid in ULT, probable avoid in BO
Limited Releases:
Hot off the heels off the financial and awards success of Bohemian Rhapsody, rock renegades Styx (Film Movement) enter the biopic game with a film that shines a light on their creative process, endless debauchery and how much they've earned from commercial cruise lines using “Come Sail Away” in their advertising. Oh shit, my bad this is actually a German survival drama that's been described by several critics as a politically-charged version of All is Lost. It's gotten good reviews (91% RT, 78 Metascore), but it's from a tiny indie studio in Film Movement, so it'll likely fizzle out even in a relatively wide open limited market.
Prediction: 0-1 PTA/low-to-mid 7 IMDb/less than 1 mil BO
Price: (MAR-MAY): $2 ULT/$1 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Nope
Even though it'll be opening in Austin and San Francisco in addition to the usual New York/Los Angeles limited launch, Climax (A24) seems poised to take this weekend's PTA crown. Gaspar Noe is an envelope-pushing filmmaker that has a bit of a cult following, reception from its overseas release/festival screenings last year has been largely enthusiastic and A24 tends to be great at launching limited releases. Given its cheap price ULT tag ($3) and the weak field of specialty titles I've mentioned repeatedly in this piece, this psychedelic horror dance film could end up being one of the better value picks of the season.
Prediction: 4-10 PTA/low-to-mid 7 IMDb/$800k-$1.5 mil total BO
Price (MAY-MAY): $3 ULT/$1 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: More than likely, yes
Weekend Projections:
1.How to Train Your Dragon $31 mil
2.A Madea Family Funeral $24 mil
3.Alita: Battle Angel $7 mil
4.The Lego Movie 2 $6 mil
5.Fighting with My Family $5 mil
PTA: Climax, A Madea Family Funeral, How to Train Your Dragon, Everybody Knows, Styx
Tune in next week when Walleye previews Marvel's next game-changing sensation, Sebastian Lelio's English-language remake of his own acclaimed film and a semi-biographical western helmed by Vincent D'Onofrio.
