SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/22

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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numbersix
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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/22

Post by numbersix »

Last weekend did manage to surprise, with Alita: Battle Angel opening above expectations with an impressive $27m ($38 for its 5-day run). That of course is only a minor dent in the massive chassis that is its $170m production budget, making James Cameron’s sloppy seconds a disaster about to happen. Sadly, its performance hasn’t helped this weak year, with this President’s Day being the worst in over a decade. Will...er... Vice-President’s Weekend fare much better?




How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Universal) is the very visible third and probably final film in the animated chili-belching adventure. This time, hero Hiccup must protect his village from their greatest threat yet. Perhaps it’s vinegar. America Ferrera, Gerard Butler, and Canada’s 3rd favourite pot-head Jay Baruchel all return for their roles.

The first film blew away expectations when it earned a scale under $220m back in 2010. Its long-awaited sequel blew expectation the wrong way, drastically under-performing with a cume of $177m. Its dip could partly be to the success of the TV series Dragons (on Cartoon Network and later on Netflix) which featured the same characters and cast and finished its run last year. The question is whether this film will act as the fond farewell of the franchise, or the stinking sequel of the series. Its overseas performance favours the latter. If you take the % dip from #1 to #2 and apply it to this film, you get a cume of about $150m, which feels about right. A low 40s opening and a decent hold across March (with Captain Marvel skewing slightly older) should be the best you’ll see. That will result in about 14 T5 points, 5-6 PTA points, and a mid 7s IMDB score. That should beat The LEGO Movie 2 if you missed that bomb, and might even beat Dumbo and Shazam!, but $28/$30 is still a high price to pay, especially if you’re making room for Captain Marvel. Skip unless you see fire in the eyes of the nation’s children (sadly we’re a few months too soon for superstar novelist Shryke to buy out every cinema in the country).




The only other release in the game is Run the Race, which Roadside Attractions surely did not pick up for the quality of its title. This is a Christian movie, in which one brother steps up for the football-hero other after a tragic accident. Presumably it ends with triumph and praising of the lord rather than strong genetics and a high-protein diet.

There are no recognized names in the film, but it is produced by American Football (which really just seems to be regular football left on the radiator too long) star Tim Tebow, who boasts nearly 5 million followers on Twitter. Roadside had a surprise hit with I Can Only Imagine last year, which hit the heavenly highs of $83m. This certainly won’t come close, but depending on the release strategy it may be worth your while. If it opens in a handful of theatres it could be worth your $3 as the lack of competition will almost guarantee PTA points. If Roadside are singing to the BO-choir and going wide then it could hit $7-8m and may be worth the paltry $1 donation you’ll need. Bottom line is keep your eye on the theatre count.

Even though it came out last week, it’s worth mentioning that Fighting With My Family is going wide this weekend, after a solid limited opening. With Dwayne Johnson promoting it, it could nab a T5 point or two.



Predictions for the weekend

1. How To Train Your Dragon 3 - $41m
2. Alita: Battle Angel - $13m
3. The LEGO Movie 2 - $12m
4. Isn’t It Romantic - $7m
5/6. What Men Want/ Fighting with my Family - $5.5m


PTA: HTTYD3, Run the Race, Birds of Passage, Everybody Knows, Alita


And next weekend Tranny analyses The Week Everyone Sits at Home until Captain Marvel Comes Out, featuring another Tyler Perry flick, and arthouse releases Styx, Greta, and Climax.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/2

Post by Buscemi2 »

I can never figure out why there are so many religious films about football. Is the key to redemption really getting your head bashed in a thousand times?

As for a theatre count, I'm guessing it will be semi-wide. Box office, not much.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/2

Post by Screen203 »

I see Dragon appealing to an older audience than Lego, and the lack of blockbusters could help it. I also think that the finale angle pushed heavily in the marketing and releasing when most kids are still in school will lead to a higher opening than 2. Could see a 50 million opening.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/2

Post by W »

Run the Race is going to be in a good amount of theaters. Looking at the AMC site it is playing at every AMC I go to on Friday (6 of them). Typically these don't get small releases until 3 weeks-2 months later.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/2

Post by Buscemi2 »

It's filling a screen at the Alamo Drafthouse here and I'm sure the nearest Regal that books all the religious films (I saw a poster for Faith, Hope & Love there on Saturday) gets it.

Seeing how dead things are right now (it baffles me that Greta's getting such a big release, I keep thinking of The Little Stranger with it), you think something like Cold War would expand wide this weekend.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/2

Post by Screen203 »

Roadside probably thinks they have another I Can Only Imagine with Run The Race.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/2

Post by Buscemi2 »

Except this one isn't based on a song or feature Dennis Quaid in the cast. Besides, they already announced a sequel to that one for next March.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/2

Post by Shrykespeare »

numbersix wrote: (sadly we’re a few months too soon for superstar novelist Shryke to buy out every cinema in the country).
And I would, too.

MONTHS???

If I had one wish, it would be for just one of you to check out my Wielders series... not to beg, but it would mean a lot to get one of y'all's opinion. I'll even send you free e-copies if you want. Yes, it's epic fantasy, but I'm pushing 50 and not sure how many more books I have left in me.

Okay, pathetic display of bowing and scraping over.



A $50M OW for Hiccup and Toothless would be awesome.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/2

Post by Buscemi2 »

How to Train Your Dragon 3 has tied the record for the widest opening ever. 4,529 theatres, thanks in large part to the current slump and large number of recent underperformers.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/2

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater counts:

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World - 4,259 (not 4,529, apparently, unless BOM has it wrong)
Run the Race - 854

Fighting With My Family - 2,711



Next week:

TP's A Madea Family Funeral - 2,350
Greta - 2,000





Celebrity Birthdays:

Jennifer Love Hewitt turned 40 on 2/21
Jordan Peele turned 40 on 2/21
James Hong turns 90 on 2/22
Kyle McLachlan turns 60 on 2/22
Thomas Jane turns 50 on 2/22
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/2

Post by Buscemi2 »

It was a typo, after all.

And I really do not get that Greta count at all. I'd be surprised if it even hit $2 million next week.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/2

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

How to Train Your Dragon 3, $17.5M
Alita: Battle Angel, $3.1M
Fighting With My Family, $2.5M
Isn't It Romantic, $2.2M
LEGO Movie 2, $2.2M
What Men Want, $1.5M
Happy Death Day 2U, $1.4M



Weekend Projections

How to Train Your Dragon 3, $58.1M
Alita: Battle Angel, $11.3M
LEGO Movie 2, $10.2M
Fighting With My Family, $7.4M
Isn't It Romantic, $7M
What Men Want, $4.7M
Happy Death Day 2U, $4.6M
The Upside, $3.5M
Cold Pursuit, $3.1M
Green Book, $2.1M
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/2

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, $55.5M
4 points - Alita: Battle Angel, $12.0M
3 points - The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part, $10.0M
2 points - Fighting With My Family, $8.0M
1 point - Isn't It Romantic, $7.5M
What Men Want, $5.2M
Happy Death Day 2U, $5.0M
Cold Pursuit, $3.3M
The Upside, $3.2M
Run the Race, $2.3M




PTA:
5 points - How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
4 points - Everybody Knows
3 points - Birds of Passage
2 points - Alita: Battle Angel
1 point - Fighting With My Family
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/2

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, $55.0M (5)
4 points - Alita: Battle Angel, $12.3M (9)
3 points - The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part, $9.7M (12)
2 points - Fighting With My Family, $7.8M (2)
1 point - Isn't It Romantic, $7.1M (4)
What Men Want, $5.2M
Happy Death Day 2U, $4.9M
Cold Pursuit, $3.2M
The Upside, $3.2M
Run the Race, $2.2M




PTA:
5 points - How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, $12,919 (5)
4 points - Everybody Knows, $4,414 (14)
3 points - Birds of Passage, $3,662 (5)
2 points - Alita: Battle Angel, $3,246 (3)
1 point - Fighting With My Family, $2,882 (5)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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