SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/22
Posted: February 19th, 2019, 4:23 pm
Last weekend did manage to surprise, with Alita: Battle Angel opening above expectations with an impressive $27m ($38 for its 5-day run). That of course is only a minor dent in the massive chassis that is its $170m production budget, making James Cameron’s sloppy seconds a disaster about to happen. Sadly, its performance hasn’t helped this weak year, with this President’s Day being the worst in over a decade. Will...er... Vice-President’s Weekend fare much better?
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Universal) is the very visible third and probably final film in the animated chili-belching adventure. This time, hero Hiccup must protect his village from their greatest threat yet. Perhaps it’s vinegar. America Ferrera, Gerard Butler, and Canada’s 3rd favourite pot-head Jay Baruchel all return for their roles.
The first film blew away expectations when it earned a scale under $220m back in 2010. Its long-awaited sequel blew expectation the wrong way, drastically under-performing with a cume of $177m. Its dip could partly be to the success of the TV series Dragons (on Cartoon Network and later on Netflix) which featured the same characters and cast and finished its run last year. The question is whether this film will act as the fond farewell of the franchise, or the stinking sequel of the series. Its overseas performance favours the latter. If you take the % dip from #1 to #2 and apply it to this film, you get a cume of about $150m, which feels about right. A low 40s opening and a decent hold across March (with Captain Marvel skewing slightly older) should be the best you’ll see. That will result in about 14 T5 points, 5-6 PTA points, and a mid 7s IMDB score. That should beat The LEGO Movie 2 if you missed that bomb, and might even beat Dumbo and Shazam!, but $28/$30 is still a high price to pay, especially if you’re making room for Captain Marvel. Skip unless you see fire in the eyes of the nation’s children (sadly we’re a few months too soon for superstar novelist Shryke to buy out every cinema in the country).
The only other release in the game is Run the Race, which Roadside Attractions surely did not pick up for the quality of its title. This is a Christian movie, in which one brother steps up for the football-hero other after a tragic accident. Presumably it ends with triumph and praising of the lord rather than strong genetics and a high-protein diet.
There are no recognized names in the film, but it is produced by American Football (which really just seems to be regular football left on the radiator too long) star Tim Tebow, who boasts nearly 5 million followers on Twitter. Roadside had a surprise hit with I Can Only Imagine last year, which hit the heavenly highs of $83m. This certainly won’t come close, but depending on the release strategy it may be worth your while. If it opens in a handful of theatres it could be worth your $3 as the lack of competition will almost guarantee PTA points. If Roadside are singing to the BO-choir and going wide then it could hit $7-8m and may be worth the paltry $1 donation you’ll need. Bottom line is keep your eye on the theatre count.
Even though it came out last week, it’s worth mentioning that Fighting With My Family is going wide this weekend, after a solid limited opening. With Dwayne Johnson promoting it, it could nab a T5 point or two.
Predictions for the weekend
1. How To Train Your Dragon 3 - $41m
2. Alita: Battle Angel - $13m
3. The LEGO Movie 2 - $12m
4. Isn’t It Romantic - $7m
5/6. What Men Want/ Fighting with my Family - $5.5m
PTA: HTTYD3, Run the Race, Birds of Passage, Everybody Knows, Alita
And next weekend Tranny analyses The Week Everyone Sits at Home until Captain Marvel Comes Out, featuring another Tyler Perry flick, and arthouse releases Styx, Greta, and Climax.
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Universal) is the very visible third and probably final film in the animated chili-belching adventure. This time, hero Hiccup must protect his village from their greatest threat yet. Perhaps it’s vinegar. America Ferrera, Gerard Butler, and Canada’s 3rd favourite pot-head Jay Baruchel all return for their roles.
The first film blew away expectations when it earned a scale under $220m back in 2010. Its long-awaited sequel blew expectation the wrong way, drastically under-performing with a cume of $177m. Its dip could partly be to the success of the TV series Dragons (on Cartoon Network and later on Netflix) which featured the same characters and cast and finished its run last year. The question is whether this film will act as the fond farewell of the franchise, or the stinking sequel of the series. Its overseas performance favours the latter. If you take the % dip from #1 to #2 and apply it to this film, you get a cume of about $150m, which feels about right. A low 40s opening and a decent hold across March (with Captain Marvel skewing slightly older) should be the best you’ll see. That will result in about 14 T5 points, 5-6 PTA points, and a mid 7s IMDB score. That should beat The LEGO Movie 2 if you missed that bomb, and might even beat Dumbo and Shazam!, but $28/$30 is still a high price to pay, especially if you’re making room for Captain Marvel. Skip unless you see fire in the eyes of the nation’s children (sadly we’re a few months too soon for superstar novelist Shryke to buy out every cinema in the country).
The only other release in the game is Run the Race, which Roadside Attractions surely did not pick up for the quality of its title. This is a Christian movie, in which one brother steps up for the football-hero other after a tragic accident. Presumably it ends with triumph and praising of the lord rather than strong genetics and a high-protein diet.
There are no recognized names in the film, but it is produced by American Football (which really just seems to be regular football left on the radiator too long) star Tim Tebow, who boasts nearly 5 million followers on Twitter. Roadside had a surprise hit with I Can Only Imagine last year, which hit the heavenly highs of $83m. This certainly won’t come close, but depending on the release strategy it may be worth your while. If it opens in a handful of theatres it could be worth your $3 as the lack of competition will almost guarantee PTA points. If Roadside are singing to the BO-choir and going wide then it could hit $7-8m and may be worth the paltry $1 donation you’ll need. Bottom line is keep your eye on the theatre count.
Even though it came out last week, it’s worth mentioning that Fighting With My Family is going wide this weekend, after a solid limited opening. With Dwayne Johnson promoting it, it could nab a T5 point or two.
Predictions for the weekend
1. How To Train Your Dragon 3 - $41m
2. Alita: Battle Angel - $13m
3. The LEGO Movie 2 - $12m
4. Isn’t It Romantic - $7m
5/6. What Men Want/ Fighting with my Family - $5.5m
PTA: HTTYD3, Run the Race, Birds of Passage, Everybody Knows, Alita
And next weekend Tranny analyses The Week Everyone Sits at Home until Captain Marvel Comes Out, featuring another Tyler Perry flick, and arthouse releases Styx, Greta, and Climax.