SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/23

[Shrykespeare]

Despite been more than two decades removed from my teenage years, I still find myself trembling with anticipation at the prospect of a whole new string of high-budget, high-action, multi-million dollar blockbuster prospects. And we are now but two short weeks away from the film that will kick it all off: the strains of Black Sabbath will fill our ears, and the merry-go-round that is the summer season (dare I call it a “Ferrous” wheel?) will begin with the opening of Iron Man 2, one of the films that is on the short list to be the #1 grossing-film of 2010.

As it always does, May brings with it the best that the big studios have to offer: Paramount will bring IronMan 2 and Shrek Forever After, Universal will bring Robin Hood, Warner Bros. will bring Sex and the City 2, and Walt Disney/Buena Vista will bring Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time. We are now so close we can almost taste the adrenaline in the air, but sadly, we’ve got two more weeks of films to critique before the main course arrives.

The weekend of April 23rd will bring three new wide-release films and two limited-release films. The first of the wide-release selections is The Losers, which is the second film in as many weeks that is based on a series of comic books. But instead of its main characters being superheroes (or rather, pseudo-superheroes) like Kick-Ass, The Losers centers on a team of Special Forces soldiers who are betrayed and left for dead by their CIA handler following an operation. Eager for payback, the group returns to the U.S. to clear their names by waging a covert war against the CIA, and to expose Max’s involvement in the deepest recesses of government intelligence.

The group consists of: Lt. Col. Franklin Clay (Watchmen’s Jeffrey Dean Morgan), the leader; Cpt. William Roque (Idris Elba), the second-in-command; Sgt. “Cougar” Alvarez (Oscar Jaenada), the sniper; Sgt. “Pooch” Porteous (Columbus Short), the pilot; Cpl. Jake Jensen (Chris Evans, who seems destined to play either superheroes or comic-book characters - or both), the hacker; and Aisha al-Fadhil (Zoe Saldana), the loose cannon who is expert in combat and reconnaissance. Jason Patric plays the devious Max.

The Losers is directed by Sylvain White, who had a modest hit in his one previous outing, Stomp the Yard. It is being released in roughly 3,000 theaters. It has been given a rating of PG-13, which is a good sign, as it will draw the teenagers in good-sized numbers. It’s been advertised fairly well, and I think it can manage the $20 million it will take to win the weekend.

Keep in mind that this film has only two weeks to make its bones before Iron Man 2 shoves it headlong into irrelevancy. However, for only $10 in Ultimate leagues, you can count on probably no fewer than seven Top 5 points (maybe up to ten, if it really breaks out), a few PTA and a Rating in the high 6’s. That’s pretty good numbers for that price. However, I’d exercise a little more caution for taking it in Box Office ($12), since I believe The Losers will peter out somewhere in the $50 million range.

Up next, we have The Back-Up Plan, a rom-com from CBS films starring Jennifer Lopez (the now-40 singer/actress who has exactly ONE box office hit in the last eight years) and Alex O’Loughlin (the Aussie hunk who has been the star of two U.S. television series, Moonlight and Three Rivers). Lopez plays Zoe, an unmarried career woman desperate for a child. Since the search for Mr. Right has gone less than stellarly, she decides to conceive twins through artificial insemination. But on the day of the appointment, she makes the acquaintance of Stan (O’Loughlin), who may just fit the bill for soulmate.

Of course, getting pregnant can often put a damper on a budding relationship, so she decides to hide her pregnancy for as long as she can, and then… well, trite rom-com hijinks probably ensue. Can their relationship survive what it sure to be a nine-month-long rollercoaster of highs, lows, midnight cravings and hormonal imbalances? Does anyone care? Hello? Hello?! Is this thing on?

Unbelievably for a film that’s been postponed as many times as The Back-Up Plan has, it’s being shoved into 3,300 or so theaters on Friday. It’s been advertised out the wazoo, but even with all that, I expect the critics to treat this film like a dog’s dinner. About the best thing that I can say about this film is that it will only run you $5 in both leagues, and you are extremely unlikely to find a film this cheap with so big a release platform. I don’t figure it will earn more than three or four Top 5 points (which isn’t too bad), but the User Rating will probably kill you. It’s a far better pick in Box Office, because I definitely think $30 million is tentatively possible (though I, personally, would rather have Just Wright for one dollar more, if only on principle).

One year ago on Earth Day, DisneyNature films released Earth, an ecological documentary the followed families of various types of animals over the course of one year. This year, DisneyNature is back with Oceans, which is also being released on Earth Day (Thursday). Its release platform (1,200 theaters) is slightly lower than Earth’s was (1,800), and truthfully, I think it’s been advertised a lot less. Truthfully, I wasn’t all that impressed with Earth (and neither were a lot of critics), as it was just a rehash of the Disney Channel’s documentary series. And though Oceans is being narrated by the suddenly-popular Pierce Brosnan, I don’t see it making that big a splash (pardon the pun).

I’ve always been fascinated by wildlife, particularly sub-aquatic wildlife, but I’m really not that jazzed to see this film, and that, sometimes, is the final yardstick, especially when it comes to documentaries. Earth only made $8 million in its first weekend, and I don’t see Oceans doing much more than $6 million. Which means, no Top 5, maybe a handful of PTA, a Rating in the low 7’s, and perhaps $19 million total. For $7 in Ultimate leagues ($4 in Box Office), I think you can do better.

For those of you who don’t know, this particular weekend’s roster of limited-release films, which at one time was crowded enough to choke a horse, has abated considerably in the last few weeks. Please Give and Mercy have both moved back one week, and will be bowing on April 30th; meanwhile, Let it Rain has been postponed to June 18th. Which only leaves two, and as luck would have it, both are only being shown on ONE screen this weekend:

Boogie Woogie ($3 Ult) – This is an English film set in the contemporary London art world, and it is based on the book of the same name by Danny Moynihan. Dubbed a “comedy of manners”, its impressive cast includes Amanda Seyfried, Gillian Anderson, Stellan Skarsgard, Heather Graham, Danny Huston, Alan Cumming, Christopher Lee, Charlotte Rampling and Joanna Lumley.

Basically, from watching the 1:18-long trailer, it seems that the London art world is naught but a Machiavellian morass of sex, treachery, infidelity, immorality, basically all the stuff the Bible tends to frown on. In a world “in which success and downfall rest on a razor’s edge, dealers, artists, collectors and wannabes vie with each other” to try to get ahead.

I can’t even find this film at RT. On IMDb, there are five User Reviews (for what they’re worth), and its current Rating is a mere 6.8 (with only 81 votes), for what THAT’S worth. Given the trend that artsy-fartsy movies like this have done pretty well this spring, I will give it my (marginal) recommendation.

The Good, The Bad and the Weird ($3 Ult) – But on the other hand…

If the title sounds like an unusual take on Westerns, you’re right. This is a Korean film, and it is set in 1940’s Manchuria (not the American West, sorry). Directed by Ji-woon Kim and starring Park Do-wan (The Good), the incredibly popular Byung-hun Lee (The Bad) and Yoon Tae-goo (The Weird), this film has already racked up well over 4,000 votes on IMDb (with a Rating of 7.4). It has a fantastic RT score at the moment (91% with 20/22 positive reviews).

Jet Li’s Warlords failed to impress a few weeks ago in its minimal release, but don’t let that throw you. Despite its setting, it feels a lot more modern (less historical epic-y), and it could be good for some PTA points, much like Mother was a few weeks ago as well. Check out the trailer: the action and music seem very Tarantino-esque… and knowing QT’s penchant for Asian action films, I’d bet the farm HE’LL be seeing this one!

So, tough choice: do you go with the artsy-fartsy film, with lots of dark comedy and sex (hetero- and lesbian), or do you go with the Asian action-Western, which has great reviews, a great Rating and a possibly some multi-week potential? Both are $3, both are showing in only one theater (probably in New York). Damn, that’s a tough choice. There are reasons to pick either, but I’ll give the nod to The Good, the Bad and the Weird for sheer entertainment value.


My predictions for the weekend of April 16-18, 2010:

1. The Losers - $20 million
2. How to Train Your Dragon - $14 million
3. The Back-Up Plan - $13 million
4. Kick-Ass - $12 million
5. Date Night - $11 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, the five films that will conclude April (and our February season), which include: A Nightmare on Elm Street, a reboot of the first of the classic 80’s horror series, with Jackie Earle Haley donning the razor-gloves of scarred serial killer Freddie Krueger; Furry Vengeance, a family comedy starring Brendan Fraser as a land developer who has war declared on him by local fauna; as well as limited-release features Please Give, The Good Heart and Mercy. (And possibly I Love You, Philip Morris, which BOM now has back on 4/30. Honestly, I don’t even know or care anymore.)

Later!

[numbersix]

Hmmm, I think both The Losers and The Back Up Plan are gonna make a lot less. This weekend in April is commonely a bad one. CBS can't market a film for s**t and Everyone Hates Jlo so I see this bombing. And The Losers just doesn't seem interesting to anyone. I'd say 16-17 mil for The Losers, and a 7 or 8 for Back Up Plan.

As for the two IFC flicks, I'm not sure. Boogie Woogie is being described as a satire on the art scene, so New Yorkers will dig that, but then again, there's a huge appeal for crazy-ass western revisions! Im gonna go with the former due to the names involved, but I doubt wither will pick up long term PTA points.

[Buscemi]

CBS Films is living in the past. They put Extraordinary Measures in 2,500 theatres (even though Harrison Ford isn't much of a draw anymore) and that only got a $5 million opening. Putting The Back-Up Plan in 3,300 theatres would seem like a good move in 2004 (back when Jennifer Lopez could still open a movie) but in 2010, it's a stupid move. J. Lo is box office poison and her last movie went straight-to-DVD. Also, the only other actor I've heard of in the cast is Donal Logue in a small role (never a good sign). I'm going with a $4.5 million opening and it could go down to even less. Hell, it could become the first 3,000 theatre opener to manage a PTA under $1,000.

The Losers will most likely outopen Kick-Ass but not manage as good word-of-mouth. For some reason, I see the culprit being Chris Evans playing the wannabe cool guy yet again and focusing the ads around his desperate attempts at being funny. I'll say a $20 million opening and a $45 million finish.

I'll put Oceans at $7-8 million for the week and a $9 million four-day weekend. It's more family friendly and probably does more help for the environment (first week ticket sales will go towards helping protect the world's oceans) than the other environmental family film opening in April (Furry Vengeance).

[J.I.]

I don't see The Losers or The Back Up Plan doing well. I predict Dragon will have between a 20-25% drop and win the weekend. But the interesting thing is that this weekend could be yet another photo-finish, even to the point that we could have three weekends in a row where the #1 movie when Sunday's estimates came out and the #1 movie with the actuals were different.

[Buscemi]

I was at my friend Dennise's house this morning and we saw an ad for The Back-Up Plan. We agreed that it looked terrible and like a ripoff of Baby Mama.

[Brockster]

Early tracking for the Losers looks awful...9M for the weekend on Lee's

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Busc, you've never heard of Anthony Anderson?

Frankly, both of these movies don't look any good. Jennifer Lopez needs to do anything that's not a rom-com. But I don't think Back Up Plan is in anyway comparable to Extraordinary Measures, at least BUP has some sembelance of interest to women. Nobody was interested in Extraordinary Measures.

I could see Dragon and Losers being a very close 1-2.

[Brockster]

Banks I like your Avatar but the damn thing covers up half of the stuff you type

[Buscemi]

Busc, you've never heard of Anthony Anderson?

Frankly, both of these movies don't look any good. Jennifer Lopez needs to do anything that's not a rom-com. But I don't think Back Up Plan is in anyway comparable to Extraordinary Measures, at least BUP has some sembelance of interest to women. Nobody was interested in Extraordinary Measures.

I could see Dragon and Losers being a very close 1-2.

I cut Anthony Anderson some slack since he did a decent serious turn in Scorsese's The Departed.

I compared The Back-Up Plan to Extraordinary Measures for three reasons:

1. same studio
2. studio promoting them for their leads (despite their declining star power)
3. releases that were way too wide (Extraordinary Measures should have been a 1,750 theatre opener while The Back-Up Plan looks more suited towards 2,000 theatres)

Otherwise, you may be right. However when I saw Extraordinary Measures on opening weekend, the auditorium was probably 70-80% full. So the movie did have some (but not much) interest.

Meanwhile, I imagine women will be more interested in the May quadruple threat of Babies, Letters To Juliet, Just Wright and Sex and the City 2 rather than The Back-Up Plan. I just can't see much of an opening from someone that most people hate due to an enormous ego. Also, her last theatrical release grossed just $7.5 million (I'm not counting her cameo in Feel The Noise, another bomb) and got poor reviews due to her ego changing a lot of the film around (the film El Cantante is supposed to be about Marc Anthony's character, but actor/producer J. Lo insisted on making her supporting character the main character).

[undeadmonkey]

Also, her last theatrical release grossed just $7.5 million (I'm not counting her cameo in Feel The Noise, another bomb) and got poor reviews due to her ego changing a lot of the film around (the film El Cantante is supposed to be about Marc Anthony's character, but actor/producer J. Lo insisted on making her supporting character the main character).

i just LOVE it how you know all this behind the doors secrets about filmmaking