Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/13, 2/14

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

Moderators: Buscemi, BarcaRulz, Geezer, W

User avatar
transformers2
John Rambo
Posts: 7730
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 5:15 pm

Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/13, 2/14

Post by transformers2 »

After a few consecutive dreary weekends, the box office looked like it was finally going to receive a much-needed dose of excitement with 4 new wide releases hitting theaters. Like when beloved weather rodent Punxsutawney Phil doesn't see his shadow on February 2nd, this rosy forecast proved to be a complete crock of shit.

Audiences proved they really weren't that jazzed up about returning to Bricksberg after 5 years, a gender-swapped version of a nearly 19-year old Nancy Meyers romcom or the latest “small child possessed by an evil spirit” movie after all as The Lego Movie 2, What Men Want and The Prodigy all fell shy of their projections. Clearly The Prodigy wasn't expected to set the box office ablaze, but the other two (especially The Lego Movie) were among the focal points of their respective studios winter/spring slate and looked like they were solid bets to be hits prior to their release.

Bizarrely enough, the only movie that cleared the low-end of its industry projection was Cold Pursuit, which received a ton of negative media attention last week after star Liam Nesson made the baffling decision to recount an incident from his 20's where he considered committing a racially-charged crime during an interview with a British publication, debuted at #3 with a haul of just over $11 mil. Despite its passable debut, this darkly comic crime thriller will likely only end up with $25-30 mil by the end of its run.

The prognosticators fared a lot better in the limited market as Everybody Knows rode its star power to an easy victory with a respectable $17,802 PTA haul in 4 theaters. Merely decent reviews/WOM should force Focus to push into this 50-75 theaters this weekend, but this Spanish-language pic should remain in a pretty good spot to pick up at least a couple more PTA points during this slow period at the multiplex.


Wide Releases:
College student Tree Gelbman (Jessica Rothe) had herself a really bad birthday when she kept getting murdered by a baby mask-wearing assailant until she eventually found out who was behind the mask and prevented her death from happening after about 20 unsuccessful trial runs. Unfortunately for Miss Gelbman, she's somehow gotten trapped in this time loop again. Happy Death Day 2U (Universal) raises the stakes by getting Tree's friends (Israel Broussard, Phi Vu, Rachel Matthews) involved in the respawning action, obviously having a different person behind the Babyface mask and surely some other wrinkles that haven't been alluded to in the trailers.

The original, which hit theaters only 16 months ago, was a nice little mid-level hit ($55.7 mil total BO) that was pretty well-received by audiences and critics alike. While there's the risk of some fatigue building up with the sequel being released in such close proximity and having a premise that seems like it's just an ever-so-slight variation on its predecessor, Happy Death Day 2U appears to be in a good position to put up comparable numbers. Universal/Blumhouse sell horror flicks better than anyone else in the business and the pre-Valentine's Day release should help bring in the lovebirds that want spice up their night with some steamy PG-13 slasher kills. However, it's not likely to surpass the original's take and has a high probability of tail-spinning-regardless of reception-after this weekend which limits its attractiveness in our game.
Prediction: $19 mil OW ($30 mil 5-day)/5-9 Top 5/1-3 PTA/Low-to-Mid 6 IMDB/$50-60 mil overall BO
Price (Feb-Apr): $12 ULT/$11 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Looking like a strictly mediocre-to-decent pick in either format, so probably not


Is a low fantasy centered around college students repeatedly dying too morbid for you? Well, you're in luck because the good people at Warner Brothers are offering a sunnier fantastical reprieve from reality this Valentine's Day with Isn't It Romantic. Rebel Wilson, in her inaugural solo starring role, plays a successful architect living in New York City who has perpetually shunned love and viewed romantic comedies as fairy tales. After getting knocked unconscious following an attempted mugging in a subway station, she wakes up in a PG-13-rated romantic comedy where she finds herself caught in a love triangle (Liam Hemsworth, Adam DeVine) and has to escape a parade of clichés in order to find the meaningful relationship she's been avoiding for all her life.

Isn't it Romantic is the closest thing this mid-tier weekend has to a dark horse. It's more of a straightforward, accessible romcom than the R-rated What Men Want, there's a clear demand for this type of feel-good date night fare around Valentine's Day and the premise is definitely a bit different than what we typically see from this genre. On the other hand, Wilson has hadn't a lot of success out of the Pitch Perfect franchise and the satirical hook could potentially turn some people off. Ultimately, I'd expect this to perform similarly to Wilson's last Warner Brothers romcom How to Be Single ($17 mil OW/$46.8 mil cume), that was released on this very weekend in 2016.


Prediction: $17 mil OW ($25 mil 5-day)/3-7 Top 5/0-2 PTA/Mid-to-High 5 IMDB score/$40-55 mil overall BO
Price (Feb-Apr): $11 ULT/$12 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: It's an interesting gamble in either format, but considering how this season's relatively barren release schedule is placing a stronger emphasis on having the pricier titles (Captain Marvel, Avengers, Dumbo, etc.) drive your slate than usual, it's not one that you need to necessarily make.

Keeping with the Groundhog Day theme of this piece, Alita: Battle Angel (Fox) is yet another middling option. James Cameron's long-in-development passion project based on a popular (?) Japanese magna is a surefire bomb with an enormous budget (reports put it at least $170 mil, but I have a feeling it's easily over $200) that's only hope to break even is huge overseas grosses (it got off to a nice start by grossing $32 mil in11 markets including the UK, South Korea and Malaysia this weekend). Fox has aggressively pushed it is a title that needs to be experienced in theaters due to its eerily realistic visuals in recent weeks, but that just seems like a last-ditch effort to sell a long-delayed niche movie that has had a difficult time coherently conveying its premise in any of the 86 trailers they've put out since Christmas 2017. Anything higher than a $40-45 mil stateside run would be a triumph for this ambitious blockbuster as well as the accounting department at Fox that has had this chocked up as a $100 mil+ loss the minute it went into post-production.
Prediction: $16 mil OW ($23 mil 4-day)/2-7 Top 5/0-2 PTA/Mid-to-High 6 IMDB/$40-55 mil overall BO
Price (Feb-Apr): $12 ULT/$12 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Put on your surprised faces folks because this looks likes another modestly-priced movie that has very limited upside in our game.


Limited Releases:
As a Massachusetts-bred heathen who is averse to anything that features even a hint of sophistication, my exposure to foreign language films almost exclusively consists of projects that are centered around martial arts or feature a heaping helping of sadistic gore (shoutout New French Extremity and South Korean B-movies). I, however, have heard rumblings from my more cultured counterparts on this lovely information sharing vessel we call that the World Wide Web that Ciro Guerra is a hell of a director. Birds of Passage (The Orchard), the latest project from the Colombian filmmaker, is finally a receiving a US release after receiving raves in Cannes last May. Among all of the love of its received (92% on RT, 87 Metascore, 8.0 IMDb), this crime saga centered around a Native Colombian's family experience with the cutthroat drug trade in the 60 and 70's has even drawn some comparisons to such genre classics as The Godfather and Scarface.

While The Orchard has struggled to achieve consistent success throughout their history and foreign films tend to have a semi-limited market here in the US, Birds of Passage couldn't possibly be in a better situation. It's primary competition (Everybody Knows) is set to expand this weekend, it's not likely to enter a ton of theaters next weekend and there's not another notable limited release until A24's Climax hits theaters in 2 weeks. A solid, ULT slate-boosting run could very well be in its future.
Prediction: 6-10 PTA/Mid-to-High 7 IMDB/$800k-1.5 mil overall BO
Price (Feb-Apr): $3 ULT/$1 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Sure. It looks like it could be a damn fine ULT pick.


With only 1 other release on the schedule, delaying the wide release of Fighting with My Family (MGM/Annapurna) until next weekend was a smart decision by the studio heads. Stephen Merchant's biopic about Saraya “Paige” Beavis' (Florence Pugh) unlikely path to WWE stardom and the wrestling family (Jack Lowden, Nick Frost, Lena Headey) she left back in England to achieve her dream was well-received following its premiere at Sundance a couple weeks ago (90% on RT, 69 Metascore), and should be able to benefit from being released on a less congested weekend. Despite boasting an early wave of positive reviews, a favorable slot on the calendar and always welcome underdog premise, Fighting with My Family doesn't look like it's destined for success. Professional wrestling is a bit of a niche movement and MGM/Annapurna has yet to have a hit outside of Creed II-which undoubtedly benefited from being part of an established franchise and having an established powerhouse studio in Warner Brothers involved with the production. There's an outside chance it catches on, but I don't think it will register much outside of some PTA points this weekend and a couple of Top 5 points next weekend.
Prediction: $6-8 mil OW (wide release)/0-3 Top 5/2-6 PTA/Mid-to-High 6 IMDB/$18-31 mil overall BO
Price (Feb-Apr): $6 ULT/$5 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: It's a relatively low-risk option given its price tag and strong possibility of securing a few PTA/Top 5 points, but it's definitely not a slam dunk either.



Weekend Projections:
1.The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part $23 mil
2.Happy Death Day 2U $19 mil ($30 mil 5-day)
3.Isn't It Romantic? $17 mi ($25 mil 5-day)
4.Alita: Battle Angel $16 mil ($21 mil 4-day)
5.What Men Want $12 mil

PTA: Birds Of Passage, Fighting with My Family, Everybody Knows, Happy Death Day 2U, Isn't It Romantic

Tune in next week when six previews another robust slate of films including the final entry in the acclaimed How to Train Your Dragon trilogy and Run the Race, a Tim Tebow-produced Christian drama which almost certainly marks the closest he'll come to returning to a football field for the rest of his days.
Last edited by transformers2 on February 12th, 2019, 3:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
Movies,Music,Sports and More!

User avatar
transformers2
John Rambo
Posts: 7730
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 5:15 pm

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/13, 2/14

Post by transformers2 »

Deadline confirmed Fighting with My Family is only opening in 4 theaters, so I've adjusted my PTA predictions accordingly.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
Movies,Music,Sports and More!

User avatar
undeadmonkey
Leon
Posts: 4413
Joined: October 22nd, 2009, 1:39 pm

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/13, 2/14

Post by undeadmonkey »

It must suck when you move your movie from the middle of christmas to the end of February and still dont make any money, Though i guess the christmas release didn't help Mortal Engines much

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/13, 2/14

Post by Shrykespeare »

Celebrity birthdays:

Jennifer Aniston turned 50 on 2/11
Darren Aronofsky turned 50 on 2/12
Mena Suvari turns 40 on 2/13 (remember American Beauty? fuck I'm old)
Elizabeth Olsen turns 30 on 2/16
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
numbersix
Darth Vader
Posts: 11545
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/13, 2/14

Post by numbersix »

Interestingly, I believe Isn't it romantic was bought out by Netflix for a bunch of foreign territories. Usually not a good sign.

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6662
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/13, 2/14

Post by Buscemi2 »

The final run time of 88 minutes is another negative sign (not every recent movie under 90 minutes can be Cold War). However, reviews have been mixed to positive.

As for the Netflix deal, romantic comedies just don't travel abroad. Warner Bros. more than likely chose to cut their losses.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
undeadmonkey
Leon
Posts: 4413
Joined: October 22nd, 2009, 1:39 pm

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/13, 2/14

Post by undeadmonkey »

I din't know that this was Rebel's first solo starring movie. too bad she is always playing the same character.

User avatar
Screen203
Clark Griswald
Posts: 1170
Joined: December 1st, 2018, 3:38 pm
Location: Mullholland Dr.

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/13, 2/14

Post by Screen203 »

undeadmonkey wrote:I din't know that this was Rebel's first solo starring movie. too bad she is always playing the same character.
I feel like Rebel was marketed as the co-lead in the Pitch Perfect movies. And How to be Single was arguably sold equally between her and Dakota Johnson.
It's not destroying. It's making something new.

Image courtesy of -
https://nerdist.com/annihilation-shimmer-ending-explained/

User avatar
transformers2
John Rambo
Posts: 7730
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 5:15 pm

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/13, 2/14

Post by transformers2 »

Screen203 wrote:
undeadmonkey wrote:I din't know that this was Rebel's first solo starring movie. too bad she is always playing the same character.
I feel like Rebel was marketed as the co-lead in the Pitch Perfect movies. And How to be Single was arguably sold equally between her and Dakota Johnson.
Agreed, but as I mentioned before, Isn't It Romantic is the first time she's had sole lead billing.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
Movies,Music,Sports and More!

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6662
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/13, 2/14

Post by Buscemi2 »

Alita's looking like a bit of a surprise. $8-9 million opening day, according to The Hollywood Reporter.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/13, 2/14

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater counts:

Alita: Battle Angel - 3,790
Isn't It Romantic - 3,444
Happy Death Day 2U - 3,207
Fighting With my Family - 4



Next week:

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World - 4,000+
Fighting With my Family - 2,500+
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
Chienfantome
Captain Jack Sparrow
Posts: 9967
Joined: May 29th, 2010, 4:22 am
Location: Paris, France
Contact:

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/13, 2/14

Post by Chienfantome »

Yeah it seems Alita is making stronger numbers than expected, Isn't it romantic will do more or less what we thought, and Happy Death Day 2 is bombing.
Fluctuat nec mergitur

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6662
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/13, 2/14

Post by Buscemi2 »

It will be interesting to see the audience divide on Alita. Seeing how Isn't it Romantic and Happy Death Day 2U are performing, it would suggest that the male/female split is rather even.

And I bet James Cameron is probably thanking himself for not casting Bella Thorne as Alita (Thorne auditioned and was rumored to have been cast, along with Zendaya and Maika Monroe). It might not have even hit $9 million for the four-day had she been the star.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/13, 2/14

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Alita: Battle Angel, $7.5M
LEGO Movie 2, $4.4M
Isn't It Romantic, $4.2M
What Men Want, $2.9M
Happy Death Day 2U, $2.8M
Cold Pursuit, $1.5M
The Upside, $1.3M
Glass, $1M




Weekend Projections:

Alita: Battle Angel, $24.7M ($33.4 4-day)
LEGO Movie 2, $21.8M
Isn't It Romantic, $13.6M ($19.8M 4-day)
What Men Want, $10M
Happy Death Day 2U, $9M ($12.7M 4-day)
Cold Pursuit, $6M
The Upside, $5.4M
Glass, $3.9M
The Prodigy, $3M
Green Book, $2.9M



PTA:

Fighting With My Family, $28,7K
Alita: Battle Angel, $6.5K
LEGO Movie 2, $5K
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
Screen203
Clark Griswald
Posts: 1170
Joined: December 1st, 2018, 3:38 pm
Location: Mullholland Dr.

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/13, 2/14

Post by Screen203 »

Better for Alita than I would have expected. And Isn't It Romantic seems to be doing much better legs wise than most films set around or released on a holiday
It's not destroying. It's making something new.

Image courtesy of -
https://nerdist.com/annihilation-shimmer-ending-explained/

Post Reply