Screen's Picks for 2/8-2/10

[Screen203]

Last week was one of the worst weekends at the box office in recent memory, with no film earning double-digits. Glass and The Upside held the top spots with the newcomer Miss Bala bombing with 6.8 million. The limited release front wasn't much better, with both Arctic and
the wider expansion of They Shall Not Grow Old not breaking out. This week seems much more promising, however, with three films that could hit 10+ million...

(The Lego Movie 2- The Second Part



First up, we have the sequel to the 2014 surprise hit The Lego Movie. If this was released in 2015, I could see it opening huge. Instead, Warner Bros. has weakened the brand with mediocre spinoffs, to diminishing results. I don't see how this will make much of an improvement on Lego Batman. However, critics have been behind it and it's the only "big" film out there right now.

I see about a $50 million weekend and around $160 million in total.

It should do well in Box Office, but due to the likely oversaturation of theaters common with animated properties, it will probably have a worse PTA than other major releases. It's IMDB score should be high, though.

What Men Want



To say that mainstream comedies have had a downturn in profitability is an understatement. Since 2015, only two raunchy R-rated comedies have made over 100 million. I see that changing this weekend. What Men Want seems to be one of the rare modern comedies that have a lot going for it: a marketable premise (a reverse version of Nancy Myers's What Women Want), great trailers (I don't remember which one this is - I just click what's at the top of the YouTube page - but the red-band at least looks amazing), and heavy marketing. Paramount seems quite confident that it will be a crowd-pleaser even though there are no reviews posted at the time. I see this breaking out.

An opening somewhere between 25 and 30 million, and a 120 million total.

It will get a lot of points in both Box Office, but might be questionable in Ultimate. Theaters often underestimate films with African-American casts, so it's PTA should be big. However, IMDB is crawling with MRA's so it's score there might be affected.

Cold Pursuit



I haven't been feeling this movie for a while. The lack of marketing, as well as Liam Nesson's Mel Gibson-esque PR gaffes, seem to be leading up to an underperformance. Another problem is that the movie looks like most of Neeson's recent films. I think that pushing the dark comedy in the marketing could have helped, but this will probably underperform before becoming a cult classic on DVD/Netflix.

10 million and 30-35 million total

A questionable choice in both Box Office and Ultimate. IMDB should be high though.

The Prodigy



I'm not sure what to think about this one. It's the first major release from the revived Orion Pictures, and the trailers are effectively creepy. However, the film seems to be all over the map thematically and it's from an unproven director. I think that the marketing is good enough that some people should show up, at least for opening weekend.

8 million opening and high teens total.

It could get you some minor points in Box Office for the low price, but Ultimate is definitely questionable.


And in limited release there are two openers in the game.

Everybody Knows (Todos Lo Saben)



Receiving mixed reviews at Cannes, this foreign film must have seemed like a winner before it debuted, due to the pedigree both behind and in front of the camera (Javier Bardem, Penelope Cruz, and Asghar Farhadi - director of A Seperation and other well-recieved movies - writing and directing). Mixed/negative reviews are the kiss of death for indie movies, and having Javier Bardem and Penelope Cruz won't aid with that. I don't think that this movie will stand out, despite the cast - it should be able to get a decent amount of PTA points, though.

WIll do nothing in Box Office, but could do okay in Ultimate.

Under the Eiffel Tower



I don't see this doing anything. The main problem is that indie movies about a mid-life crisis and finding love and life again are a dime a dozen. The lack of reviews is also disconcerting.

Won't do well in either Box Office or Ultimate.

Next week transformers2 takes on Alita: Battle Angel, Happy Death Day 2U, Isn't it Romantic, and Birds of Passage.

I can't think of a clever ending to "bring life into this house", as Javier Bardem would say, so I'll just end it here.

[Walleye413]

Nice write-up, thanks for joining the scrum.

[Buscemi2]

What Men Want keeps reminding me of Proud Mary for some reason. Yes, different genres but I still can't take Henson seriously as a box office draw (and The Best of Enemies doesn't look like a hit either).

[Shrykespeare]

Nice debut effort, Screen! Think you're a little (maybe a lot) high on WMW, but it's good to see Tracy Morgan back after that horrible car accident he was in a few years ago, not to mention Shaquille "Why am I thinking in the third person?" O'Neal flexing his comedic muscles again.

[Buscemi2]

You forgot to mention the triumphant cinematic return of The Boz.

[numbersix]

Nice analysis, Screen.

That's pretty bold with What Men Want. It has been testing well, but that cume is mighty high. Especially with Isn;t It Romantic offering fierce competition next weekend.

1. LEGO 2 - $55m
2. What Men Want - $25
3. Cold Pursuit - $10m
4. The Prodigy - $5m
5. The Upside - $5m

PTA: Everybody Knows, Lego 2, What Men Want, Arctic, Eiffel Tower.

[Shrykespeare]

Celebrity birthdays:

Michael Sheen turned 50 on 2/5
Mike Farrell turns 80 on 2/6
Zhang Ziyi turns 40 on 2/9

[Walleye413]

Zhang Ziyi is only 40?? How how was she in Crouching Tiger? My goodness I'm old.

[Buscemi2]

Around 20 or 21. Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon opened in 2000.

[Screen203]

Nice analysis, Screen.

That's pretty bold with What Men Want. It has been testing well, but that cume is mighty high. Especially with Isn;t It Romantic offering fierce competition next weekend.

1. LEGO 2 - $55m
2. What Men Want - $25
3. Cold Pursuit - $10m
4. The Prodigy - $5m
5. The Upside - $5m

PTA: Everybody Knows, Lego 2, What Men Want, Arctic, Eiffel Tower.

Nice debut effort, Screen! Think you're a little (maybe a lot) high on WMW, but it's good to see Tracy Morgan back after that horrible car accident he was in a few years ago, not to mention Shaquille "Why am I thinking in the third person?" O'Neal flexing his comedic muscles again.

Nice write-up, thanks for joining the scrum.

Thanks for supporting my dumbass predictions and general cinematic ignorance

[Buscemi2]

Too early numbers (from Deadline):

The Lego Movie 2 $11 million Friday/$40 million weekend
What Men Want $7.8 million Friday/$20 million weekend
Cold Pursuit $4.1 million Friday/$11.5 million weekend
The Prodigy $6.5 million weekend

[Screen203]

Too early numbers (from Deadline):

The Lego Movie 2 $11 million Friday/$40 million weekend
What Men Want $7.8 million Friday/$20 million weekend
Cold Pursuit $4.1 million Friday/$11.5 million weekend
The Prodigy $6.5 million weekend

Would be bad for LEGO if true.

[Spectre]

Everything is Awful

[Buscemi2]

I called it after the sneak preview. The movie's a big disappointment. Also, Thursday night numbers were below Lego Batman.

And personally, I wasn't sure how Cold Pursuit would fare. Reviews have been decent but the Neeson comments that led to some backlash (and the cancellation of its premiere) seemed as if that would hurt the film. But on the other hand, those same comments would have probably brought in those that loved The Mule.

[Shrykespeare]

Yikes. Guess the bloom is off the LEGO rose.


Theater counts:

The LEGO Movie: The Second Part - 4,303
What Men Want - 2,912
Cold Pursuit - 2,630
The Prodigy - 2,530
Everybody Knows - 4 (sorry, just can't see this title without getting that Concrete Blonde song from Pump up the Volume in my head)

And, just for Six:

The Oscar Nominated Short Films 2019 - 270




Next week:

Alita: Battle Angel - 3,700
Isn't It Romantic - 3,300+
Happy Death Day 2U - 3,000