Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: February 1st-3rd

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Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: February 1st-3rd

Post by Buscemi2 »

“Congratulations consumer, you’re going to the Super Bowl!” – Enchiladidos mascot, Aqua Teen Hunger Force (Episode 2.3, “Super Bowl”, 2000).

With that out of the way, here’s this week’s column. The players: one wide release and one limited release.

Last Week

Glass, The Upside, and Aquaman remained in the top three while the best of the openers was Joe Cornish’s follow-up to Attack the Block, The Kid Who Would Be King. Despite over 3,500 theatres showing the film, it was DOA with a $7.2 million weekend. This was also the worst opening ever for a film debuting in 3,500 theatres (the previous record holder, The Nut Job 2, still has the worst 4,000 theatre opening). The only other wide opener, Serenity, was lost at sea at $4.4 million.

The most impressive of the Oscar bumps (albeit not percentage wise) was Green Book. In theatres since November, the addition of over 1,500 new theatres led to a $5.5 million weekend and a sixth place finish, its highest so far. Its current take stands at $49.1 million and it could head to more as the Oscars inch closer.

In limited releases, The Invisibles won by default but Cold War keeps going. Four more points give it 23 total. Could more be in store as it continues to expand slowly (funny that this could outgross Amazon’s intended big film last year, Life Itself, in less than one-tenth of the theatres).

This Week

Numero uno con una “Bala”

The only wide release this weekend is Miss Bala (Sony/Columbia), an Americianized remake of the 2011 Mexican film. The original film was a critical and financial success in its native country and launched the acting career of Stephanie Sigman. The remake stars Gina Rodriguez and seems to be rather different in both story and tone. While the original was a dark, R-rated film that tackled both the ongoing War on Drugs in North America and the world of beauty pageants, the remake drops the beauty pageant subplot and carries a PG-13 rating. Marketing has been light so I have little idea if the remake (directed by Catherine Hardwicke) is going less for a political theme and more for one of general action.

I’m not sure if Sony is aiming to appeal to the same audience that went for the original (which got a very small release stateside before hitting DVD) or a wider audience that’s unaware it’s a remake. But either way, I don’t expect much of a result. It might have decent numbers in New York and Los Angeles but it’s not going to sell in say, a very middle America market, even with a PG-13.

Boosh’s Take: I’m going to say $6 million opening weekend and a $14 million finish. There are much better options.

Arthouse Class 101

This week’s subject: a single title.

Arctic (Bleecker Street) – Mads Mikkelsen stars in this Icelandic film about a man stranded in the Arctic whom after a failed rescue is left the decision to wait for another attempt or to get off himself. Think All is Lost but in the snow.

The film has been well-reviewed and being the only game in town should have no problem getting five points this weekend. Whether it will expand well is a matter of debate. Mikkelsen developed a cult following for his portrayal of Hannibal Lecter and Bleecker Street’s had a few arthouse successes in recent years. On the other hand, it doesn’t seem to be a very mainstream film.

In the end, Arctic should take in 9-11 points and a box office gross between $2-3 million.

Box Office: Glass, The Upside, Miss Bala, Green Book, Spider-Man
Ultimate: Arctic, The Invisibles, Cold War, Miss Bala, The Upside

Next week, Screen203 handles four wide releases, The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part (Warner Bros.), What Men Want (Paramount), The Prodigy (MGM/Orion), and Cold Pursuit (Lionsgate/Summit), plus two limited releases, Everybody Knows (Focus) and Under the Eiffel Tower (The Orchard). I just feel like you might not be really for some football.
Last edited by Buscemi2 on January 29th, 2019, 10:17 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: February 1st-3rd

Post by Screen203 »

Great column as usual, Boosh.

Despite what I said earlier about Bleecker Street, I think that Artic could do decently. All is Lost numbers at least.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: February 1st-3rd

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Agreed on all counts. Man, what a dull two weeks its been. Feels worse than ever before? Is that just to allow those Xmas flicks to breathe?

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: February 1st-3rd

Post by Chienfantome »

Yeah, there are so many crowded weekends, but definitely not these days...
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: February 1st-3rd

Post by undeadmonkey »

it's so quiet because of superbowl weekend

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: February 1st-3rd

Post by transformers2 »

undeadmonkey wrote:it's so quiet because of superbowl weekend
Ding ding ding. Last weekend of January and first weekend of February are like this every year. Only thing that made this year a little abnormal was the lone release on MLK weekend.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: February 1st-3rd

Post by Chienfantome »

I think that this year in particular is way weaker than usual, filled with unambitious films almost every week.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: February 1st-3rd

Post by numbersix »

Even in the last few years Superbowl weekend had a few films making over $10m. This week it's quite possible nothing will. Surely some sort of counterprogramming, like Isn't It Romantic or What Men Want, would have been an interesting move?

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: February 1st-3rd

Post by Walleye413 »

Really weak start to the year, even next weekend looks Meh at best. When The Upside is the breakout movie of 2019 and Aquaman is still holding up - it's been a lame 2 months.

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: February 1st-3rd

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

The only hits we'll see for the next 3 months are LEGO Movie, Captain Marvel, and Shazam. Maybe Us/Pet Sematary if they're good, but those are big maybes.

Everything else looks like garbage. This is an unusually shitty Jan-April.

Not to mention the overwhelming number of weekends with only one new release. I'm guessing Bumblee or Mortal Engines would've sure enjoyed this movie desert we've got going.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: February 1st-3rd

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BanksIsDaFuture wrote:The only hits we'll see for the next 3 months are LEGO Movie, Captain Marvel, and Shazam. Maybe Us/Pet Sematary if they're good, but those are big maybes.

Everything else looks like garbage. This is an unusually shitty Jan-April.

Not to mention the overwhelming number of weekends with only one new release. I'm guessing Bumblee or Mortal Engines would've sure enjoyed this movie desert we've got going.
I think that Alita or What Men Want could do 100 million+
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: February 1st-3rd

Post by W »

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:The only hits we'll see for the next 3 months are LEGO Movie, Captain Marvel, and Shazam. Maybe Us/Pet Sematary if they're good, but those are big maybes.

Everything else looks like garbage. This is an unusually shitty Jan-April.

Not to mention the overwhelming number of weekends with only one new release. I'm guessing Bumblee or Mortal Engines would've sure enjoyed this movie desert we've got going.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: February 1st-3rd

Post by Screen203 »

W wrote:
BanksIsDaFuture wrote:The only hits we'll see for the next 3 months are LEGO Movie, Captain Marvel, and Shazam. Maybe Us/Pet Sematary if they're good, but those are big maybes.

Everything else looks like garbage. This is an unusually shitty Jan-April.

Not to mention the overwhelming number of weekends with only one new release. I'm guessing Bumblee or Mortal Engines would've sure enjoyed this movie desert we've got going.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: February 1st-3rd

Post by Buscemi2 »

The way Pet Sematary's being marketed, it's probably got $60-70 million in the tank.

What Men Want's tested extremely well and Paramount's pushing it hard. There will also be sneak previews on the 6th.

Isn't it Romantic could surprise, even if it's a total rehash of I Feel Pretty.

And Breakthrough could be a total wild card. The film looks terrible but the trailer's gotten over 70 million views on YouTube. Combined with its Easter opening, this could do Heaven is for Real numbers.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: February 1st-3rd

Post by Screen203 »

Isn't it Romantic reminds me more of Enchanted than anything else.

And Breakthrough will be pretty big, at least based on budget and in my area. I don't think that it will cross 100 million, though.
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