Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: February 1st-3rd

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Buscemi2
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: February 1st-3rd

Post by Buscemi2 »

Heaven is for Real topped out at $91 million and that was hot on the heels of other religious films. $75-90 million would be a strong number for Breakthrough as it won't have that level of momentum Heaven is for Real had.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: February 1st-3rd

Post by Screen203 »

But wasn't that (as well as the Octavia Spencer-Sam Worthington movie) based on a bestseller from the Bible Belt?
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Walleye413
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: February 1st-3rd

Post by Walleye413 »

I'm not convinced Dumbo nor Dragon will be "hits". Maybe like Glass is a hit. But not something we get all excited about either personally or game-wise.

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: February 1st-3rd

Post by Buscemi2 »

I think How to Train Your Dragon will be dependent on how the sneak previews on Saturday do. It's not being overshadowed by other films like the second one was and early word's been very good.

I'm not expecting Aquaman-type numbers but I imagine it will fill the auditoriums like The Lego Movie 2 did.
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BanksIsDaFuture
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: February 1st-3rd

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Walleye413 wrote:I'm not convinced Dumbo nor Dragon will be "hits". Maybe like Glass is a hit. But not something we get all excited about either personally or game-wise.
Agree. Dragon will struggle to hit $100M, just look at the drop from the 1st to the 2nd. $50M less - AND that was in the smack dab middle of the summer. Putting the 3rd on the ass end of February feels like a dump (not to mention just two weeks after the infinitely more popular LEGO Movie).

And I also don't see Dumbo doing more than $125M at best. It doesn't have the name recognition of a Cinderella/Beauty & the Beast/Jungle Book. Also that trailer doesn't exactly scream "kid friendly". It looks more like Big Fish than Alice in Wonderland.
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BanksIsDaFuture
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: February 1st-3rd

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Breakthrough could do very well, in Christian movie box office terms.

These seem to only hit when they're actually well-made, with notable stars. Think that audience can sniff out pandering by now, which is why schlock like "Paul Apostle of Christ", "God Bless the Broken Road", "I'm Not Ashamed", "Do You Believe?", and "God's Not Dead 3" get ignored.

The hits: Heaven Is For Real - Miracles From Heaven - The Shack - War Room; were all based on bestselling books and true stories, just like Breakthrough.

The only one that baffles me was I Can Only Imagine, which is based on a song? :lol:
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: February 1st-3rd

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater Counts:

Miss Bala - 2,203
Arctic - 4


Next week:

The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part - 4,100+
What Men Want - 2,800
Cold Pursuit - 2,500
The Prodigy - 2,500
Everybody Knows - 4



Celebrity birthdays:

Kelly Lynch turned 60 on 1/31
Brent Spiner turns 70 on 2/2
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: February 1st-3rd

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Glass, $2.8M
Miss Bala, $2.7M
The Upside, $2.5M
Aquaman, $1.3M
Green Book, $1.3M
Spider-Man, $1.1M
The Kid, $1M


Weekend Projections

Glass, $9M
The Upside, $8.6M
Miss Bala, $6.1M
Aquaman, $4.4M
Green Book, $4.3M
Spider-Man, $4.2M
The Kid, $4.1M
Dog's Way Home, $3.4M
Escape Room, $2.3M
Mary Poppins, $1.9M
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: February 1st-3rd

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Glass, $9.5M
4 points - The Upside, $8.8M
3 points - Miss Bala, $6.7M
2 points - Aquaman, $4.8M
1 point - Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, $4.4M
Green Book, $4.3M
The Kid Who Would Be King, $4.2M
A Dog's Way Home, $3.5M
Escape Room, $2.9M
They Shall Not Grow Old, $2.4M



PTA:
5 points - Arctic
4 points - Miss Bala
3 points - Capernaum
2 points - Glass
1 point - Cold War




Predictions/observations:

1. Glass is assured of $100M. $120 seems like a big stretch.

2. The Upside will top out around $90M, way higher than most predictions.

3. Aquaman needs only $7M to top Batman v Superman, which would make it (I think) the biggest DC Universe success story outside the Dark Knight trilogy.

4. Spider-Man: Into the Spider Verse will crack $180M. Nice job!
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Shrykespeare
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: February 1st-3rd

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Glass, $9.5M (15)
4 points - The Upside, $8.7M (17)
3 points - Miss Bala, $6.9M (3)
2 points - Aquaman, $4.9M (27)
1 point - Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, $4.5M (15)
Green Book, $4.3M
The Kid Who Would Be King, $4.2M
A Dog's Way Home, $3.6M
Escape Room, $2.9M
They Shall Not Grow Old, $2.4M



PTA:
5 points - Arctic, $12,710 (5)
4 points - Miss Bala, $3,116 (4)
3 points - Glass, $2,605 (11)
2 points - The Invisibles, $2,565 (7)
1 point - Capernaum, $2,513 (4)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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