SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/25

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numbersix
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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/25

Post by numbersix »

Just like any one of his trademark twists, Glass’s underperformance was something we honestly could all see coming. The Unbreakable and Split sequel failed to break the January opening record when critics tapped it to be a real pane in the (gl)ass, and audiences stepped back. Its B Cinemascore suggests it was tolerated but its future looks brittle. Elsewhere, solid holds were demonstrated by Christmas fare once again. Can this week break Santa’s slate?




Trying to lure in the family audience is The Kid Who Would be King (Fox). A teen bully-magnet ends up finding superstar sword Excalibur, and is destined to reform the knights of the round table (who dance whenever they’re able) and work with the wizard Merlin in a battle against Morgana. A teen cast lead the film, with Rebecca Ferguson as Morgana and Patrick Stewart as Merlin.

In theory this story sounds like a tired 80s TV movie, full of the clichés of King Arthur brought into a slightly modernised setting. However, it’s the next film from British comedian Joe Cornish, whose chav-centric Attack the Block became a cult and critic classic, even if it failed to ignite the global box office. Reviews are generally positive and expect the modernised setting to be authentic. However, marketing has been breaking through in the way it potentially should, meaning all its good buzz may not land. Despite being the better option of this weekend, don’t expect much beyond a low teens opening, and a $30m cume. Not great for $9 in BO, although in Ultimate it will get you 6-7 T5 points, 1 or 2 PTA points, and a middling IMDB score, which isn’t bad.




Don’t get too excited about the next film: Serenity (Aviron) by name, serene by nature. The film stars Matthew “Alright alright alright” McConaughey as a boat captain whose ex-wife convinces him to kill her violent new husband. Anne Hathaway plays the ex with Jason Clarke as Mr Nasty. The film is written and directed by Steve Knight, creator of Peaky Blinders, and whose tiny feature Locke was one of the hightlights of 2014. His scripts for The Girl in the Spider’s Web and Woman Walks Ahead, however, were not for 2018.

Aviron are releasing this film, but it’s hard to tell what that means. It certainly won’t open beyond the $10m their first two releases achieved. The cast are impressive although McConaughey has left his Mconaissance and is unlikely to start his Mconformation anytime soon. But a thriller like this, in which an older audience will be most interested, really needs decent reviews. The lack of them at this stage suggests it ain’t good. I’m thinking a $6m opening and a $15m cume, which won’t result in anything worthwhile for your $7.




Cold War is melting and Destroyer is getting mended, so time for a new limited release. The Invisibles (Greenwich) is a docudrama telling the story of the Jews who managed to hide in plain sight during 1940s Berlin. Actual interviews of the survivors are blended with the fictional narrative. WWII films tend to get audiences in, although this film didn’t feature in any major festival. And Greenwich don’t exactly push their theatrical releases hard. Still, with little competition from both previous limited releases and the wide openers, this could top the weekend and be worth its meagre $2.


Predictions for the weekend

1. Glass - $18m
2. The Kid Who Would be King - $11m
3. The Upside - $10m
4. Serenity - $6m
5. Aquaman - $6m

PTA: The Invisibles, Cold War, Glass, The Kid, The Upside


Next week we’re moving from the quiet to the… even quieter, as Boosch examines the wide release Miss Bala and lone limited film Arctic.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/2

Post by Buscemi2 »

I'm surprised the Whedon obsessed haven't criticized Serenity for it using the name of one of his films. But of course, that would end up bringing more attention to McConaughey's film.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/2

Post by Screen203 »

Serenity seems like a dump. There's been no marketing, and it's been delayed multiple times. I could have seen a similar run to The Gift if it wasn't being dumped.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/2

Post by transformers2 »

numbersix wrote:although McConaughey has left his Mconaissance and is unlikely to start his Mconformation anytime soon.
Ahem.....

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/2

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater Counts:

The Kid Who Would Be King - 3,521
Serenity - 2,561



Next week:

Miss Bala - 2,000+




Celebrity Birthdays:

Linda Blair turned 60 on 1/22
Tatyana Ali turned 40 1/24 (fuck I'm old)
David Strathairn turns 70 on 1/26
Patton Oswalt turns 50 on 1/27
Rosamund Pike turns 40 on 1/27
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/2

Post by numbersix »

Wow, this weekend is the poor neglected youngest child of a hardcore Catholic family. Too much else going on for anyone to care.

Deadline aren't even bothering to do up estimates. Variety are saying KWWBK is going to make around $9m and Serentiy $5-6m.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/2

Post by Buscemi2 »

If that estimate holds for The Kid Who Would Be King, that would be the second worst opening ever for a 3,500 theatre debut. Sherlock Gnomes opened better than this.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/2

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Glass, $5.0M
The Upside, $3.1M
The Kid Who Would Be King, $1.7M
Aquaman, $1.7M
Serenity, $1.6M
Green Book, $1.4M
Spider-Man, $1.3M
Dog's Way Home, $1.1M
Escape Room, $1.1m


Weekend Projections:

Glass, $17.3M
The Upside, $11M
Kid Who Would Be King, $6.8M
Aquaman, $6.3M
Spider-Man, $6.2M
Green Book, $5.6M
Dog's Way Home, $5M
Serenity, $5M
Dragon Ball Super, $4.2M
Escape Room, $3.7M
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/2

Post by Buscemi2 »

$17.3 million was my tiebreaker number for Glass this weekend on Fantasy Movie League. It will be interesting if that number holds.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/2

Post by Chienfantome »

Buscemi2 wrote:$17.3 million was my tiebreaker number for Glass this weekend on Fantasy Movie League. It will be interesting if that number holds.
Mine too ;)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/2

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Glass, $19.0M
4 points - The Upside, $12.2M
3 points - Aquaman, $7.3M
2 points - The Kid Who Would Be King, $7.2M
1 point - Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, $6.1M
Green Book, $5.4M
A Dog's Way Home, $5.2M
Serenity, $4.8M
Escape Room, $4.3M
Dragon Ball Super: Broly, $3.6M



PTA:
5 points - The Invisibles
4 points - Glass
3 points - The Upside
2 points - Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
1 point - Destroyer
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/2

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Glass, $18.9M (10)
4 points - The Upside, $11.9M (13)
3 points - Aquaman, $7.3M (25)
2 points - The Kid Who Would Be King, $7.2M (2)
1 point - Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, $6.1M (14)
Green Book, $5.5M
A Dog's Way Home, $5.1M
Serenity, $4.4M
Escape Room, $4.1M
Mary Poppins Returns, $3.3M



PTA:
5 points - The Invisibles, $6,701 (5)
4 points - Cold War, $4,977 (23)
3 points - Glass, $4,913 (8)
2 points - The Upside, $3,536 (9)
1 point - Capernaum, $2,764 (3)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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